1-18-2020) 3:00PM

FLASH!!    

New 6 to 10 day CPC outlook shows -EPO!!

Westerlies undercutting the Western AK Block.

This is the First Model Alert of a Possible wet pattern developing for the central west coast in the 6 to 10 day outlook!!  (Possible AR)

 

More Later…..

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Our strong short wave Trof did not waste anytime moving through last night. Although snowfall amounts were still in the moderate range; low end…. 7 to 10 inches, I was expecting more based upon the guidance.  Today is a beautiful day.  Fresh powder on Mammoth Mt with decreasing winds…  Highs in the low 30s in town… Lots of high clouds…

 

WX Pattern;

Latest Satellite imagery shows quite the storm to the Northwest. The pacific has indeed opened up. This wave will hit the Pacific NW and BC coast Saturday with a lot of rain and wind. Central CA will be spared. However, there is a wave north of Hawaii this morning that is drawing in subtropical moisture. The flow down stream over CA will provide for considerable high cloudiness on and off through the weekend. The next wave related to the polar Jet will track further south next week and tap more of this moisture.  So far the guidance shows most of the precip going well to our north Tuesday. Light amounts expected over the upper elevations…. Thursday through the following Sunday looks dry for now….

 

MJO:

 

OK Here I go again with the MJO….

The CFS and JMAN are outliers of all the other models. The CPC thinks that there is a false signal because of the decaying +IOD, bias toward phase 3 and 4.  They feel that there is a chance of the MJO getting into Phase 8. See RMM  below.

Why is this important?   First of all, none of the other models show the MJO into phase 8. So none of the Models show the amplification that would result in a blocking high over AK that phase 7/8 often creates.

As indicated by the CPC….”It should be noted that this MJO event could lead to a regime change for North America, specifically the contiguous U.S.   Phase 7/8 events tend to favor below average temperatures over the eastern U.S” also Possible AR events on the west coast.

Here is the key….watch the EPO and WPO teleconnections.  If they go negative,  the Westerlies will be shunted to the south.

 

Dr Howard and the a Dweebs…….