Archive for February, 2020

Forecast models looking a bit better with the next weather system keeping the Trof open moving South….Light to moderate snowfall amounts looking more likely now….

The Euro model has been pretty consistent in keeping the next weather system, open as it move south, down the CA coast, at least through Central CA.  The American models have been leaning that same way over the past 24 hours.   So as weather folks say, the trend is our friend….

Quantitative precipitation forecasts have been boosting snowfall amounts recently over the weekend. Amounts in town may be 2 to 4 inches with between 4 and 8 inches over the upper elevations…. The timing is later Saturday afternoon through Sunday.  The Dweebs still expect March it be a much better month for Snowfall in the high country than Jan and Feb.   Mid Month looks especially good as the AO goes briefly negative.

The Dweebs will give an update on the QPF Friday for a closer look at snowfall estimates.

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………….:-)

Closed low now formed will drop SSE today then move into Southern CA Saturday…..Light snowfall expected….Mainly Saturday for Mono County…..This will be followed by another dry week…..

February 25th

Of Public interest;

The driest winters with less than 225 inches

  1. 2007   222 inches
  2. 1990   214
  3. 1977   197.5 inches
  4. 1987   195.8
  5. 2015   176
  6. 1977    94

Winter of 2020 so far 138 with March, April and May to go.

What’s different between most of these winters and the winter of 2020?

  1. We have arguably the best snow making system in the Sierra
  2. We have the best snow grooming system in place in the country!

 

Next weather system Saturday night and Sunday…..

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February 23rd 2:30PM

Well folks we got a true dusting with .01 inches of precip! Wow!    The rest of this week up to Saturday will be dry as well, with a slight chance of some snowfall next Sunday……Meteorological Winter will go out like a Bambi. Keep your fingers crossed about March. We could still get a few good weather systems next month, however, if the AO stays strongly positive, the chances of a Miracle March would be just that…….A Miracle!

 

The Weather Forecast this week shows that temperatures will warm some 10 and 15 degrees above normal by Wednesday. High temps will climb to the mid 50s by Wednesday; lows between 25 and 30.  Expect lots of high clouds the second half of the week. It will be dry through Saturday.

 

(Blame it on the +AO)

It has been determined that the cause of this dry winter out west was primarily due to a very intense positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation, where-by record low pressure aloft set up over the Arctic, keeping much of the Arctic Air confined to the Arctic. This phase does not allow much Frigid Air to pour south, out over the North pacific in our case. For example, Fairbanks Alaska is having one of the coldest winters in decades.

In this phase of the Arctic Oscillation, the standard deviations from normal have been determined to be modern day historic!

With strong low pressure aloft, 500MB-1000MB thickness over the Arctic have lead to one of the coldest Arctic Winters in decades. This may have had an affect of increasing the Arctic Sea ice and hopefully giving the Polar Bears some kind of a break?

Over the next few days, more record +AO indices are expected.   

 

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Finally…a little light snowfall is expected for this Saturday.  Nothing major, but with a little luck, some 2 to 4 inches may fall on Mammoth Mt. The change in the forecast is due to a change in the track of this small cut off low pressure system, as it moves through Southern California a bit further north.   There is no cold air advection with this system for Mammoth. The precipitation will mainly be up-slope snow Saturday. Some 1 to 4 inches is expected for The Town of Mammoth and Mammoth Mt.  It will be dry and cool on Sunday. Highs will be in the low 40s in town Saturday with lows in the 20s….

The extended outlook shows a progressive pattern with the upper ridge off shore building into California, early to mid week for above normal temps by Wednesday. The next system that is expected to bring some light snowfall is expected to follow a similar track into Southern CA on the 4th of March…. However, we are expecting a change in the pattern over North America during that time.  So the weather outlook may change for the 1st week of March….

Of note, this ski season has brought 138 inches of snow at the Main Lodge. There have only been 3 winters historically in the past 50 years with under 200 inches by May 31st. That means that if we only get another 5 feet over the next 2.3 months, that would qualify for the 4th driest winter in the past 50 years….Is that likely?  No….As the odds based upon climatology are well against it….However, the odds are rapidly increasing that this will go down as one of the “drier than normal years” for the Central Sierra….

 

The Dweeber…………………….:-)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Another Cool Dry week on tap with the possibility of some light snow or snow showers Friday afternoon and Sunday Night….Major Pattern Change Expected for North America toward the end of Week Two…

Wednesday the 19th of Feb

It is a beautiful Morning in the high country with little if any wind top to bottom.  Today’s temps will be in the mid 40s in town and in the 30s on Mammoth Mt. Very little wind is expected….Nights in the 20s.

This Mornings 500mb/250MB  maps show a SW /NE upper ridge some 700 mi west of Mammoth, that is slowly progressive. The highest heights are over British Columbia with a weak branch of westerlies underneath, weakly confluent with subtropical jet along the CA/MEX border.  Further west is a short wave trof that is approaching the upper ridge some 1400 mi west of the sierra crest.  The Trof is progged to split over the next twenty four hours . By Thursday afternoon, a closed center spins up off the Northern CA coast as the system digs south toward LA off-shore. The system energizes the subtropical jet as it interacts with it. A weak jet-let from the GOA digs the cut off SE into the Subtropical Jet where it is carried east through Southern CA Saturday, while it dampens out to the east.

The prind point here, is that it will bring light to low end moderate amounts of rain to Southern CA Saturday. The bulls-eye looks to be on the west side and over the top of the Tehachapi’s. The northern portions of the Southern Sierra will get some up-slope, as well as Mammoth Mt on Saturday.  Mammoth Mtn is mainly to the north of this circulation. It is possible to get an inch or two from this system between Friday night and Saturday afternoon. Expect clearing skies Saturday night…  there after….The upper flow becomes northwesterly Sunday with breezy conditions developing later in the day. Theext system is associated with a strong polar jet that digs SE from Eastern British Columbia, through Utah on Monday. We will be on the anticyclonic side of the upper jet and so expect cooling and moderate wind over the upper elevations. Breezy weather may develop through the Owens Valley. This is a dry WX system for the eastern slopes of the sierra.  The off shore ridge is progressive as it moves over the State of CA. The following Wednesday will be fair, dry with warmer temperatures.

What is important is what follows the following week in what is touted as a major pattern change by the CPC heading into March……

Stay tuned…..The Dweebs will update you on the possibilities of precipitation as soon as the new pattern takes shape….

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………………:-)

 

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From Climate Prediction Center this afternoon;

Major Pattern Change over North America expected later Week 2. (During the first week of March)

The change is initiated by the Eastern pacific ridge of high pressure building north over Alaska. The details still have to be worked out…..

 

The Dweeber……

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Another cool dry week is expected with below normal temperatures. High temperatures will range from the low to mid 40s this week with over night lows in the teens and twenties. The next weather system to affect our area will be Friday and Friday night.  Saturday looks fair and a little warmer. Sunday’s weather will be breezy by the afternoon with increasing winds over the crest. This inside slider will bring snow showers Sunday night into Monday AM. it will turn cold next Monday, with highs in the 30s.

The outlook shows little hope for a meaningful storm for the remainder of this month. March still looks to be more active as meteorological Spring begins….

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…….:-)