Wednesday the 19th of Feb

It is a beautiful Morning in the high country with little if any wind top to bottom.  Today’s temps will be in the mid 40s in town and in the 30s on Mammoth Mt. Very little wind is expected….Nights in the 20s.

This Mornings 500mb/250MB  maps show a SW /NE upper ridge some 700 mi west of Mammoth, that is slowly progressive. The highest heights are over British Columbia with a weak branch of westerlies underneath, weakly confluent with subtropical jet along the CA/MEX border.  Further west is a short wave trof that is approaching the upper ridge some 1400 mi west of the sierra crest.  The Trof is progged to split over the next twenty four hours . By Thursday afternoon, a closed center spins up off the Northern CA coast as the system digs south toward LA off-shore. The system energizes the subtropical jet as it interacts with it. A weak jet-let from the GOA digs the cut off SE into the Subtropical Jet where it is carried east through Southern CA Saturday, while it dampens out to the east.

The prind point here, is that it will bring light to low end moderate amounts of rain to Southern CA Saturday. The bulls-eye looks to be on the west side and over the top of the Tehachapi’s. The northern portions of the Southern Sierra will get some up-slope, as well as Mammoth Mt on Saturday.  Mammoth Mtn is mainly to the north of this circulation. It is possible to get an inch or two from this system between Friday night and Saturday afternoon. Expect clearing skies Saturday night…  there after….The upper flow becomes northwesterly Sunday with breezy conditions developing later in the day. Theext system is associated with a strong polar jet that digs SE from Eastern British Columbia, through Utah on Monday. We will be on the anticyclonic side of the upper jet and so expect cooling and moderate wind over the upper elevations. Breezy weather may develop through the Owens Valley. This is a dry WX system for the eastern slopes of the sierra.  The off shore ridge is progressive as it moves over the State of CA. The following Wednesday will be fair, dry with warmer temperatures.

What is important is what follows the following week in what is touted as a major pattern change by the CPC heading into March……

Stay tuned…..The Dweebs will update you on the possibilities of precipitation as soon as the new pattern takes shape….

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………………:-)

 

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From Climate Prediction Center this afternoon;

Major Pattern Change over North America expected later Week 2. (During the first week of March)

The change is initiated by the Eastern pacific ridge of high pressure building north over Alaska. The details still have to be worked out…..

 

The Dweeber……

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Another cool dry week is expected with below normal temperatures. High temperatures will range from the low to mid 40s this week with over night lows in the teens and twenties. The next weather system to affect our area will be Friday and Friday night.  Saturday looks fair and a little warmer. Sunday’s weather will be breezy by the afternoon with increasing winds over the crest. This inside slider will bring snow showers Sunday night into Monday AM. it will turn cold next Monday, with highs in the 30s.

The outlook shows little hope for a meaningful storm for the remainder of this month. March still looks to be more active as meteorological Spring begins….

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…….:-)