Brought to you by Howard Sheckter
Archive for March, 2020
Last in the Series of weather system to bring light snowfall Saturday into Sunday evening……Fair to Partly cloudy next week with warmer temperatures….
Friday March 27, 2020
It’s ironic that the best Skiing and Boarding conditions since last December have occurred this month and the Mountain is closed……No thanks to COVID 19. The parttern that dumped between 16 and 19 inches on Mammoth Mt this past week and another possibly 1 to 3 inches this weekend is winding down A March Miracle? Certainly not the Miracle that a vaccine would deliver…
The teleconnection (-EPO) is trending positive now for the end of the month, is now expected to to become negative again in April. Some of the models show strongly negative for much of April in both ensembles of the GFS and ECMWF. That means a lot of blocking up over Alaska is expected. That means that weather systems will tend to be more suppressed to the south over California. This is a change to what was expected some 4 to 5 days ago. So it may very well be that more storminess will be expected during the Month of April….
More later…
The Dweeber……………………….:-)
Two more weather Systems to affect our area through Mid Week….Light to Moderate snowfall possible…..EPO to go positive in April….
Saturday March 21, 2020
3-23-2020 6:45PM
Although Mammoth Mt is closed, they reported 4 to 6 inches of snow from the Sunday afternoon/night system. The last in the series will be moving in Tuesday, bringing more wind and snowfall into early Thursday AM This would be considered a low end moderate storm. The main upper low is more over land now than off shore. However, there is still plenty of upper jet coming in from off shore to give us good west-side up-slope, and possibly 6 to 12 inches over the upper elevations and along the crest. The snow will be cold and powdery by Wednesday. In town, light amounts are expected with between 3 and 6 inches between Tuesday and Thursday. This looks to be the last in the series of weather systems to affect our area. In reference to the discussion below, the Eastern Pacific Oscillation is going positive with lower pressure in the Gulf of Alaska for the first week of April. That usually allows for 500mb height rises along the west coast, and a northward retreated upper jet. It will be colder that normal through Friday with high temps cooling to the upper 20s by mid week and lows in the teens….
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Chilly Weather with below normal temps are expected to continue through mid week. High temps will be mostly in the 30s with lows in the teens and twenties.
There are two weather systems that will bring more snowfall to Mammoth. The one Sunday night/Monday AM is a weakening system that will being light snowfall to town…..Between 2 to 4 inches. The system Tuesday and Wednesday could bring another 4 to 7 inches in town by Thursday AM. Will Update amounts for the mid week storm on Monday.
The last in the series of storms is expected to bring quite a bit of wind Monday Night through Tuesday Night Teleconnections show that the -EPO will be going positive. That is usually accompanied by the Polar Jet retreating to our north again. Temperatures are likely to return to near normal during week 2.
The following weekend looks cool with a NW flow aloft. There is a small wave coming through late Saturday that may bring some snow showers. We’ll see…..
Otherwise, although the GFS has more storminess the following week….The Eastern Pacific Oscillation goes positive. That means that it will be more difficult for storms to get in here…..But not impossible….
Stay Safe…..Stay Healthy…..Listen to your officials….
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………….:-)
Cold Upper Low to slowly head south the next few days….Eventually bringing Mod to Hvy Snowfall to the Eastern Sierra Sunday/Ngt…..After a small break by Thursday and Friday…. Another system affects the west coast by weeks end…..A series of storms look to bring more snowfall to the Sierra through months end….
Saturday March 14, 2020
5:30pm Sunday
This storm is certainty the creeper. Although yesterdays forecast below indicated that the front would be near Mammoth at 00z Monday. (Sunday at 5:00PM), the updated forecast shows it will not come through until about 11:00AM Monday. So do not expect snowfall to become heavy until well after midnight tonight…Heaviest snowfall will probably be Mid Morning Monday…. Expect good snowfall Monday into Tuesday…
Although currently closed now, Mammoth Mt reported 7 to 10 inches of snow today Sunday.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………:-)
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This Afternoon’s Analysis had a cold Low off the Oregon coast with a front pretty much stationary over Northern CA. Heavy precip was falling over Northern CA with strong winds buffeting the Eastern Sierra. Light orographical precip was being lifted over the Sierra in the strong SW flow. As the upper low drops south Sunday from Northern CA, snowfall will pick up with a FROPA expected by late afternoon or early evening Sunday for Southern Mono County. Strong Vertical motion fields are indicated Sunday night into Early Monday AM. In that the Closed Low continues south and becomes a bit cut off….it is difficult to know where the features will come east through Southern CA. Most models take it east through About San Diego but the EC had it coming east further north. These considerations would determine the possibility of up-slope for the Eastern Sierra, Tuesday or Wednesday….
The highlights of this storm for the Sierra Are;
1. The front is progged to stall near Tahoe for some 18 to 20 hours giving them the big dump….”today into Sunday AM”. By Sunday at 500PM the front is near Mammoth Lakes. So our heaviest snowfall will be Sunday afternoon through Early Monday AM. At some point the upper flow becomes southerly and that cuts off the orographics…. But by When??? And as mentioned earlier, will the Eastern Sierra get into a good up-slope pattern Tuesday? All these things determan how much snowfall we will get in Southern Mono County. 2 to 3 feet by mid week not unreasonable thinking….
Stay Tuned…………….:-)
