Wednesday 11:10 AM:

Smoke rolled in Tuesday as expected. Expect another day of poor air quality today Wednesday.  This high pressure system aloft, (upper ridge) has been behaving in a manor that gave Northern CA strong east winds Sunday, NE winds to the Eastern Sierra Monday.   The upper high has two lobes.  Sunday and Monday the emphisis was on the northern lobe, where by the Eastern Sierra had east winds.   On Tuesday and again today Wednesday, it is the soutern lobe over or near AZ, that had higher heights, of which light southwest flow was enough to bring smoke back into our region. The northern portion will once again strengthen and overtake the south. This will allow ENE flow to redevelop over the Eastern s

Sierra and help to clear our air as the upper flow pushes the smoke baclk over the crest to the west.  The upper low is pretty weak Frday and so the flow kinda moves back and forth between SW and NE.  The overall effect may be that we might have some haze early Friday that would be cleaned up later in the afternoon, bit hard to say. By the weekend the upper high breaks down. The upper center is over Central CA. There will be little upper air movement.  So there may be some haze, but should not be a huge problem if the current model projections are correct for the air quality this weekend.  The Creek Fire reports at this time were 24 hours old.  It was some 10 to 12 miles from Mammoth Lakes. The report said that It was not progressive, as it was burning into Granite and into the old Lions Fire burn Scar. (Creek Fire; Over 305,000 areas burned)

Next Weeks Weather and Beyond…………

The idea with this mornings model runs shows a gradually break down of the strong ridge pattern over the far west, beginning this weekend, then into early next week.  Temperatures will still be above normal through at least Tuesday. However, they should pull south of the 70s by mid week. Normal highs in Mammoth in early October are in the low 60s. The Dweebs expect some SW flow early next week which will strengthen a bit by Thursday. They may mean smoke for us.  On another related subject, Hurricaine Marie, now well south of Baja will move northwest and weaken next week. Moisture from the remains of that system is progged to be picked up by a weak trof of low pressure  This moisture may make it into Central and Northern CA later Thursday the 8TH, and Friday the 9th of October. This mornings 12z GFS run showed precipitable water increasing Thursday and Friday from the coast inland.  At this time, there is about a 20% cance of showers early Friday AM the 9th.

Beyond the 9th, there is a much stronger Trof moving into the Pacific NW Saturday into Sunday the 11th. We are south of the upper jet which at this time is progged into Oregon Sunday.  Depending upon future runs of the Global Models, it is possible that the upper jet may sag as far south as Northern CA, as there has been a few runs of the GFS showing that.  The upper jet off shore at 250MB is nearing 155knots.  The front RT quad of the jet is over Northern CA later Saturday into Sunday.  At this time of the year, there is quite a bit of warmth over the deserts. The warmth and most importantly the antecedent warmth that is pre frontal, can lead to a strong wind event throughout the Eastern Sierra in the Fall, when the upper jet is northwest over Northern CA. An appraoching nose ahead of a 140 to 160knot jetlet can play havoc in both fall and mid spring.  The Dweebs main focus will be that pattern the weekend of the 10th and 11th.     Stay tuned!!!

Although the opperational runs had the upper jet over Oregon this AM, (Not as windy) The transisition period from September into October often times underplays the strrength and position of that upper jet at 250MB.

The Dweebs will take another look at the guidence early next week……

In the longest range guidence, (fantasy Land) The global models bring in another stronger wave of low pressure with yet another strong upper jet. 500MB hights suggest the possibility of showers from that system with possibly the 1st dusting.  This is in the relm of what meteorologists call Fantisy Land. The Dweebs are not putting much faith in it yet. If it still shows up in another week, I will take and give note!


Dr Howard and the Dweebs………….