Saturday AM




Thursday 8:15 PM the 15th

Nasty Morning in Mammoth Thursday with PM 2.5 counts off the chart.  Good air quality tonight, but tomorrow…the smoke models stink us up again. This time with out a break in the afternoon…

The weekend does not look great but stay tuned, I will update Friday night.


Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………:-)




Haze and Smoke returned to the Mammoth Area Monday AM due to a wind shift.     A pancake ridge was located with its axis 1000 miles west of Paso Robles this morning.  The upper flow was westerly to the north of that axis and to its south over Southern CA, the flow was very lightly NE.   Inland valleys of Southern CA  enjoyed a beautiful morning with off shore flow.  To the north of the  ridge axis, the flow was lightly westerly. This returned smoke and haze from the Creek Fire to Mammoth Lakes and Long Valley. The guidence suggest that little change in the configuration of the upper ridge will occur the next 36 hours.

By Wednesday,  amplifacation over the Western and Central Pacific will build the Eastern Pacific Ridge north enough for NE flow over Central and Northern CA.. This change in wind direction will push the smoke back west of the Sierra Crest, imporving air quality for a few days and at the sametime, temperatures will move well above normal for mid Octiber.   (Low 70s for Mammoth)  (low 90s in Bishop)


La Nina Winter;

Apprearently this is going to be at least a moderate to possibly strong La Nina Winter.   I have noticed that during Major La Ninas, we can get major wind events in November and December over Eastern CA.   La Ninas are notorious for strong meridial flow and can really give us some interesting weather over our area. Precipitation wise, there is a bit drier than normal bias. But so much depends upon the many other teleconnections that are involved. *Such as the -AO, -EPO and -PNA.   A Western Trof usually sets up over the Great Basin.  The questions will be how far west will it develop?

All the guidence I have seen shows this October to be for the most part, a dry month with above normal temps.  However, October is the worst month for Model Accuracy. That is because that until the NA continent cools off and the heat from the oceans take over, the differantial heating will play havoc with where and how the upper jet reacts.  November is a much better month for forecasting….

AO = Arctic Oscillation; Negitive phase means anomalious high pressure over the Pole and a supressed southward upper jet.

EPO =  Eastern Pacific Oscillation-   Negitive phase causes blocking  over Alaska

PNA = North Pacific Oscillation  Negitive phase is lower pressure over Western Canada and Far Western US.



Dr Howard and the Dweebs…..:-)