Were on the home stretch ending the month of October.  The MJO is stuck in phase 5, and for this time of the year, because of where the tropical convection is over the far Western Pacific, the Rossby Wave train is up and over the top of the “far west”. Actually, the fact that the MJO has been struck in phase 5 for pretty much the entire month of October is pretty remarkable. The results have been an extended fire season over California which is ongoing.

This weekends weather shows’ a cool down. But not the rumored temperatures crashes down into the single digits in Mammoth. We may get into the upper teens at best by Monday AM. You see there is more then one global model, and, they do not agree on how much cooling there will be.  So lows in the 15 to 20 degrees for Monday AM is the most likely range.  Not the single digits rumored.  Daytime highs in Monday will be possibly in the upper 30s? Monday.    As a note, when looking at the forecasts for Mammoth Lakes, it is EZ to get confused about the temperature forecasts.  When reading the zone forecast for Mono County, the low temperatures during (Still Air) are for elevations along Highway 395. It is often up to 10 warmer in the TOMLs,  than those forecasts. Here is the temperature forecast for the next 7 days for the Town of Mammoth. The temps reflect the lows for that morning first.  As you can see, the present forecast calls for lows in the 20s for the most part, early next week.

Note, The weekend system is pretty dry coming in. The upper jet is mainly to our east with downward vertical motion. So do not expect a lot of precip,  just light amounts “If any” Sunday/Night  Best feature of this system is to help with the Creek fire and for home owners to order their wood and purchase wood pellets!!  🙂

Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday

40/67    35/66    35/61    33/50    19/40     22/52     29/59

 

What the Dweebs see in the longer range is a warm up that following week into the first few days of November. Then a few migratory short wave trofs from the west. The upper jet at the moment, is forecasted too far north to do much good for Central CA. Just wind and cooling and clouds and possibly some showers.  We need the MJO to get into the Phase’s 8, 1, 2, and 3 to get into a stormy pattern.  That will be hard to do with the current La Nina base state at this time. Later in the season the trofs will be stronger. Nevertheless they will be fighting the tropical convection displaced westward and the destructive cool base state of La Nina.  There are other teleconnections that can help…more later….

 

The Dweeber…….:-)