Archive for October, 2020

Eastern Pacific Ridge Will Dominate the Weather This Week with Above Normal Temps…..Off Shore Flow to highlight the weather Wednesday with good air quality returning….

 

Saturday AM

 

Updating………………

 

Thursday 8:15 PM the 15th

Nasty Morning in Mammoth Thursday with PM 2.5 counts off the chart.  Good air quality tonight, but tomorrow…the smoke models stink us up again. This time with out a break in the afternoon…

The weekend does not look great but stay tuned, I will update Friday night.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………:-)

 

 

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Haze and Smoke returned to the Mammoth Area Monday AM due to a wind shift.     A pancake ridge was located with its axis 1000 miles west of Paso Robles this morning.  The upper flow was westerly to the north of that axis and to its south over Southern CA, the flow was very lightly NE.   Inland valleys of Southern CA  enjoyed a beautiful morning with off shore flow.  To the north of the  ridge axis, the flow was lightly westerly. This returned smoke and haze from the Creek Fire to Mammoth Lakes and Long Valley. The guidence suggest that little change in the configuration of the upper ridge will occur the next 36 hours.

By Wednesday,  amplifacation over the Western and Central Pacific will build the Eastern Pacific Ridge north enough for NE flow over Central and Northern CA.. This change in wind direction will push the smoke back west of the Sierra Crest, imporving air quality for a few days and at the sametime, temperatures will move well above normal for mid Octiber.   (Low 70s for Mammoth)  (low 90s in Bishop)

 

La Nina Winter;

Apprearently this is going to be at least a moderate to possibly strong La Nina Winter.   I have noticed that during Major La Ninas, we can get major wind events in November and December over Eastern CA.   La Ninas are notorious for strong meridial flow and can really give us some interesting weather over our area. Precipitation wise, there is a bit drier than normal bias. But so much depends upon the many other teleconnections that are involved. *Such as the -AO, -EPO and -PNA.   A Western Trof usually sets up over the Great Basin.  The questions will be how far west will it develop?

All the guidence I have seen shows this October to be for the most part, a dry month with above normal temps.  However, October is the worst month for Model Accuracy. That is because that until the NA continent cools off and the heat from the oceans take over, the differantial heating will play havoc with where and how the upper jet reacts.  November is a much better month for forecasting….

AO = Arctic Oscillation; Negitive phase means anomalious high pressure over the Pole and a supressed southward upper jet.

EPO =  Eastern Pacific Oscillation-   Negitive phase causes blocking  over Alaska

PNA = North Pacific Oscillation  Negitive phase is lower pressure over Western Canada and Far Western US.

 

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…..:-)

Smokey Days and Nights likely to continue through Mid Week…..Moisture from Tropical Storm Maria may bring upper elevations of Mammoth Mt an inch or two of snow Friday night…..Models doing poor job in forcasting weekend storm…

Thursday PM:

Ugly!!  That what I see for next 2 weeks. I love Falls in October that have cool spells. The pattern next week does feature some NNE Breeze which will help with the smoke a little but nasty fire weather ahead for California with high temperatures well above normal later next week!  Its likely that well see more 70s in Mammoth with 85 to 90 in Bishop next week which is becoming some 20 degree above normal if it works out. Nights are longer now and will cool more.  Looking to see if we get a decent surface high over the Great Basin for stronger NE Flow but I do not see any cold air advection yet.  So Winds will be very light.   One thing for sure, it is going to warm up again after the weekend…. 90 to 100 in the Central Valley?? Mild Sana Ana for Southern CA.  Hot!!

 

Climo:  MJO stuck in Phase 5.  Most convection over Maritime Continent and eastern Indian Ocean.  La Nina is getting stronger with Walker Pump shifting more west with time. You can see the Rossby wave Train Coming out of the western pacific and across the North pacific. This is feeding the Zonal flow and the ridge over the far Eastern Pacific.   Not good news for any storms for California!  We may not see any moisture until the very end of the Month of October….

Pray for rain or Snow!!!

The Dweeber…..

 

WEDNESDAY 8:00AM

No Surprises this morning to this weatherman with little or no precipitation in the forecast this weekend…..  The Small feature breaking off for the westerlies today working with the remains of Maria, will split and head down the coast leaving little or no rain for the Creek Fire. Even the polar jet will remain mostly to our north with just some cooling and some wind to help disperse some the smoke from Mono County Saturday and Sunday. The Long wave Trof with the breeze will shift quickly east and high pressure aloft to the west will take over with yet another week of above normal temps expected for our county. The Dweebs are hoping that the ENE winds aloft and at the surface will help keep most of the smoke from the Creek Fire to the west of the Sierra Crest.  The Fire has burned about 327, 000 acres now and about 50% contained.

Longer Range:

The Dweebs see another Strong Ridge building over the far Eastern Pacific into CA early next week.  Although this will bring more Fire Weather headaches for the Fire Fighters as temperatures will soar to the High 90s again in the Central Valley by Mid week, the pattern also suggests a stronger surface high and NE Flow for Mammoth, (better Air Quality) beginning Sunday night into next week. There looks to be several periods of downs sloping winds on the west side of the Sierra and also the Mountains of Southern CA. (Santa Ana Winds) in the south and Moderate downsloping winds for the Western Slopes of the Sierra.  Back to the Mammoth Area, we should get “Good” air quality developing early next week and good to moderate air quality more often than not through much of next week.

 

More Later….

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………….:-)

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Its October and like March…the global models are all over the place in forecasting 5 to 7 days out.  Last week it looked like a potential wind event for Mammoth Saturday the 10th with the models showing the dreaded NW jet across Northern California. Then earlier this past weekend, the upper jet had a configuration showing it much sharper and digging more off shore. This would be better for snowfall for the high country. Both the EC and GFS MODELS  painted 5 to 7 day snowfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over the Sierra Crest.  However, this mornings 12z run of the GFS did some serious back peddling with a return of the the dreaded NW jet over Northern CA Saturday/Ngt. (windy).  So what to do about the forecast for the weekend?….Absolutely Nothing. The Dweebs will update either Wednesday or Thursday this week, depending upon what the ensembles show. Note,  there will be plenty of weather folks that will try.  My take on the flip flopping is that there is something out over the pacific that the models are having a difficult time resolving.

In the meantime, much above normal temperatures are expected to continue through mid week.  Highs in the mid 70s in Mammoth today and tomorrow Tuesday.  Highs near 70 on Wednesday. Lows in the 30s. No important winds…Just a gradual increase in southwest flow each day. Smokey conditions will prevail the next few days with a gradual decrease in smoke concentrations beginning mid week on…

Our ridge will be gone by Wednesday evening and southwest flow will increase bringing periods of subtropical high then mid level clouds into our area. All this moisture through Friday Night is associated with TS Maria.

Note:  All global models build a pretty strong ridge in next week so expect the cool down to be brief later this week…

 

Temperatures;   Highs in the mid 70s Monday and Tuesday…. Near 70 on Wednesday then 60s Thursday and Friday and 50s Saturday and Sunday.  If we do get a decent snowfall over a large part of  Mammoth Mt over the weekend, It will be difficult to get back into the 70s until its gone.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………….:-)