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Archive for February, 2021
Northwest Flow to continue for the foreseeable future….The Cold in the east shifts out over the Atlantic next week and by next weeks end…The West turns cooler…..
Thursday February 18, 2021
2/25/21 4:07pm
Longer Range:
Prospects are still good for a Storm that begins next weekend the 6th. The European shows the IVT Atmospheric River tools in the weak range at our latitude. The Euro also shows a rather large broad slow moving trof developing off the west coast that weekend into the middle of that following week…. So a 4 day storm. However, before you book for a storm that weekend, the GFS ensembles are not bullish for an AR at all. Instead, it brings in a weakening large scale trof that is much more progressive. So…What to make of it all?
Taking a look at the 8 to 14 day outlooks from NOAA, those folks are bullish for above normal precipitation and colder than normally temps that weekend through the middle of the following week. I believe they like the EURO….
I think that we can say that we will have a storm or two, the following weekend into the next week, however, confidence for a big storm is not there yet….
Will take another look this Sunday…..
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………:-)
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9:30AM 2/24/2021
Not much to add to the post below for the remainder of February as series of NW sliders brings mainly wind, cooling today, Thursday night and a few snow showers Saturday afternoon. Nights will be especially cold with highs running below normal the next several days…..Low 30s to low 40s and Lows in the single digits and teens…
Meteorological Spring begins Monday. The Planetary Rossby Wave pattern tends to become more choppy with time in March. I see some possibilities for a significant storm the weekend of the 6th/7th of March. This is just some guess work for now. The pattern shows promise as I think I know where it is headed. It stands to reason that with March coming up, we are going to see storm systems becoming more cut off from the westerlies at times and in the case of the 6th and 7th system, a closed off system that is more east west oriented while it taps AR moisture. The long range IVT model shows a Moderate AR for our latitude around the 5th/6th while the Euro pushes it back a day to the 6th/7th. Stay Tuned on this one…. Remember, this is not a forecast, just a development in the outlook…
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………:-)
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Outside of the two day wonder late last January, the winter has been pretty uneventful over the far west. Future outlooks don’t look any better through the end of this month and possibly through the first half of March!
The current pattern shows cold Arctic Air intrenched over the mid west and parts of the south. The good news is that, this appears to be the last deep blast of Arctic Air for the south and parts of the mid west for a while. The cold PK air is going to shift to the east coast by this weekend, and then out over the Atlantic next week. Why is that important for the west? It is important as that is one of the features that is blocking up our pattern. However, not the only one.
Looking at the ECMWF (EURO Model) ensembles day +7, it is easy to see that the long wave Trof in that mean will retrograde to the Great Basin with time. This will occur during the second half of next week. So after a brief warm up early next week, expect colder weather later in the week and into early March. There may be a storm or two with light to moderate snowfall from that shift. However, at this time, the 00z progs shows inside or CA sliders…..
The WX Pattern outlook continues to show one of drier than normal averages for this time of the year.
The Northwest flow patterns like the one we are currently in, favors the Pacific NW. This is typical during La Nina winters and one which is expected to continue into March. With the Long Wave Trof retrograding westward with time, the upper flow will tend to sharpen. The progs show the upper jet mostly out of the north, over or along the west coast by early march. This is a colder than normal pattern and still mostly a dry one. If, and its a big if, the Eastern Pacific high retrogrades a bit more, we may get some coastal sliders with more moderate amounts of snowfall. Again…These usually do not bring a lot of snow, but possibly amounts in the 6 to 18 inch range. Time frame wise, that looks to be in the early part of March. By mid month March, we are going into our spring patterns. The PV weakens and the pattern typically becomes more progressive, meaning the movement in large air masses that previously have been mostly stationary have more movement. This will be our best opportunity to play catch up with our water year precipitation. This should develop by Mid March and continue into Mid April. If California is successful, with a few good strong “AR”s, we may dodge a bullet with what could be another horrible fire summer season.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………….:-)
Northwest Flow to Continue with another Small Breezy System Friday then warmer the end of the week into next….
Tuesday February 16, 2021
The Eastern Pacific ridge out some 1200 miles off shore along with the Western Atlantic Ridge off the East coast is keeping Arctic Air intrenched in the nations mid section. Below Zero temperature’s are common throughout much of the the mid west and Great Lakes States…. This is a pattern that will last more often than not the next week. This effectively keeps the door closed to the pacific as the upper jet is more over the Great Basin and California, with mostly an over land trajectory in a northwest flow. It is a particularly windy pattern. The next upstream system is no exception with light amounts of snowfall similar to the Monday system expected for Friday night. High temps to remain in the 30s and 40s the next 5 days with lows in the teens and 20s….then a jump to the 50s expected by next Monday. The next significant storm cycle looks to begin the end of the month with the Patten possibly staying active, much of the month of March…..
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………..:-)
UGLY NW Jet Approaching Central CA Saturday…Its a powerhouse….Some areas may have damaging winds on Saturday…..Another is in the works for possibly Monday night and Tuesday……
Friday February 12, 2021
High WInd Warning was issues by the National Weather Service beginning at 6:00AM Saturday to 4:00PM Saturday
Stay in Touch with the advisories from the National Weather Service as they will be watching this developing situation through out the night tonight….
Today’s model trends show a very Nasty 160 knot NW jet that will be moving in later tonight and affecting our area through Saturday evening. The emphasis is wind with light amounts of snowfall. Another windy and potentially just as strong a system will move into our area Monday evening with high winds into Tuesday. The Pattern is the very ugly and strong NW jet. This is the pattern where we get our strongest winds. Both the Saturday and the Monday night system will bring light amounts of snowfall. in the 1 to 6 inch range. The Communities along Highways 395 like Crowley Lake may have winds in the 80 to100mph range or stronger….
Winds aloft in our area are expected to be 50 Knots at 700MB/Double that for an estimation of winds on the top of Mammoth mountain (100Knots). Then to estimate surface winds along eastern slopes divide by 2/3rds… So winds are expected around 67 knots at the surface. (77 MPH) Gusts are possible to 88 or 90MPH. Of course this is just a guide. Terrain enhancement’s can really come into play with stronger winds in some areas.
Looking at the Rapid Refresh Model for mid morning Saturday, the winds are pretty strong From Mammoth South along 395 to Wheeler Crest with another strong area of strong winds near Fort Independence.
Dr Howard the the Dweebs……………………:-)
