7/17/21  6:15PM

NWS has issued red flag warning for high fire danger beginning 11:00AM Sunday to 11:00AM Monday.

A small system moving up from the northern  Baja coast and along the Southern CA coast will increase moisture and dynamics for both afternoon and night time thunderstorms in the Sierra.  In that the lower levels will be initially very dry, these will be dry thunderstorms with few rain shafts reaching the ground Sunday PM.  There will be a high problability of lightning in the Southern Sierra north to Southern Mono County. Again, these storms are possible all night Sunday over the Southern and South Central Sierra.  Hybrid or wet storms will arrive during the afternoon Monday into Monday Evening…..

 

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7/16/2021  5:15pm

Update on Monsoon Pattern
Latest guidance shows that there will be 2 surges of Monsoon Moisture for Eastern CA, north and south including Eastern Deserts of Mono and Inyo next week. Mountains and Deserts of Southern CA next week will get some rain. Yes, there could be some areas of Heavy Rain in some of these storms, however the pattern does not persist long enough for any major problems. Mountains of La County southward may get rain and thunder. Except for parts of San Diego County, for those in the coastal sections, you will have to take a trip to the high country to get rained on most likely. The Eastern Sierra of Mono County will get some rain and there will be isolated areas of heavy rain, but precipitable water amounts are nothing special. Timing is Sunday, Monday and possibly Tuesday before it dries out again for East Central CA. Mid-week look dry, then the Euro gets more bullish about Friday and Saturday with the remains of an easterly wave moving toward our area. We will see how its looks early next week for the following weekend. Overall, we have the trof in the pacific NW again with periods of SW flow next week with periods of SE flow too.

Now for some great news! As most know, the Desert Southwest is in exceptional drought. It appears that an easterly wave will stall out over the desert southwest about the middle of next week bringing heavy rain and much cooler than normal temperatures. Hope it brings much relief to that area. It will also bring flash flooding, but you cannot have it both ways in the summer!
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………:-)

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Its almost over. Another few more days of heat. Forecasted highs in Mammoth in the upper 80s expected today Sunday and again Monday, with highs cooling to the low 80s by Thursday. The zephyr is back this week. Those afternoon and evening breezes will be more than welcome!  The pattern shift is due to the upper high over CA gradually weakening and giving way to a trough of low pressure in the Pacific Northwest. This will be a drier pattern with SW flow returning.

Longer Range:

Both ECMWF and GFSX show the Subtropical High rebuilding again as early as the end of the new week.   However, this time it is not expected to retrograde into CA and NV with extreme heat.  Instead, it initially builds over the Climatically favored four corners states, then builds north along the borders of UTAH and CO.  With the Subtropical high that far north of its normal position, its underbelly can transport Monsoonal Moisture and Dynamics into Nevada and California. Currently, it is questionable if the surge gets far enough west to affect the coastal sections of Southern CA…..Although it is possible. Thusfar, the models are not as bullish there.  The Dweebs will keep an eye out for Easterly Waves/Inverted Trofs moving across Old Mexico the week of the 20th. The Models are favoring beginning Thunderstorm’s action about the 19th of July.

FYI; The period of the last week of July into the first 7 days of August are prime time for thunderstorms here in Eastern CA with the last weekend of July this year being most favored.  If you are a betting person, that’s the worst weekend to plan an outdoor wedding in the Eastern Sierra. Again, this is Climo, or what you would expect…..Not necessarily what you get.

 

Climate:

Some scholarly articles show that Low Solar activity coincides with more meridional flow in the planetary wave or mid latitude Rossby Wave Flow. Might that coupled with climate change be responsible for the rare heatwave over the NW this Summer?

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………….:-)