Archive for October, 2021

November 3rd at 4:30PM

Models are really struggling today with the up stream amplification that drives the upper low south Tuesday.  If you read my early discussion Tuesday, I had in the Cons...The concern that the surface cyclogenesis off the coast of Japan is weak and out of place. That maybe affecting the models for the Tuesday system as the strength of the AR appears to be weakening again. I hate to yo yo, so lets wait a few more days to see how it all shakes out.

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Nov 2 update is at bottom of this discussion.

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The weekend of the 7th marks the end of daylight savings time. So enjoy one more week of the late afternoon sun before it all changes the following weekend. Now that we have snowpack in the high county, we no longer have the usual 20 degree spread in highs between Bishop and Mammoth. Our highs are closer to between 15 to 17 degrees difference now. High temps will cool to the low to mid 50s this weekend with upper 40s to low 50s next week. The latter is more typical for November.

Winter thoughts..

Three climate forecasters were interviewed by SFgate recently. None had any prognostication of a wet winter. Why, because were back in a La Nina. La Nina’s have a dry bias. True!.   With at said, there are Wet Nina’s too.  Although it difficult to say that this winter will be a wet La Nina, My Gut feeling is that it will be considerably wetter than last years La Nina, as there are some very important teleconnection differences this year over last year. Here are two biggies I believe;

1. The Quasi Biannual Oscillation is in its Negative Phase. I have posted this before over the past several weeks so look at my achieves and read on.
2. A very significant warm pool stretches well north west of Hawaii. The most comfortable place for the eastern pacific ridge is over the SSTA in the north pacific. The Dweebs Love the Warm H20 pool there and the cold pool in the Gulf of Alaska. Great Team!! Check this out!!  https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/index.html

The Dweebs believe this Winter will be quite a bit wetter than Last!!  The eastern pacific ridge in this position favors more positive tilting long wave trofs which favors more AR’s  The QBO in its negative phase favors more Strato Warm events I have read.

Back to weather;

Over next 10 days there are a couple of trofs that will bring at the least some light snowfall. 1st, a high latitude block develops over Western Canada on Halloween. There is a system that will under cut that block next Thursday. Mainly light snowfall is expected.  Light (1 to 6 inches)  The block breaks down over the following days as a much larger storm approaches prior to the 10th. This storm “may” have an AR as the upper jets rear right entry region favors CA.

Tuesday 11/2/2021

Quick Update;

The Weather system expected for CA Thursday will be focused upon Northern CA with little effect for Southern Mono County, other than wind and cooling. At the Moment, I do not expect anything measurable for Mammoth Lakes precip wise.  With that said, Northern Mono County may get some light rain and snow above 9500 feet.

Pros; The next weather system being touted by the GFS model for next Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday has a weak AR with it. Tuesday seem to be the day of heaviest precip. So expect a storm with the potential to bring a few feet of snow over Mammoth Mt then.

Cons; The ECMWF model is much weaker with it and shows no AR for our area. Additionally neither model has the Surface cyclogenesis over the western pacific in the right area for ideal down stream amplification.

So the Dweebs are cautiously optimistic about the early next week storm.

Update this Friday….

11-02-2021  1:52PM

Just viewed new 12Z ECMWF operational and Ensemble

They have come in line with GFS for Weak AR,  next Tuesday of next week followed by Dynamic Trof and Upper Jet.  Upper jet at 250MB is as strong as 150knots and its latitude in low enough to give Mammoth a good Whopping.

Snowfall Amounts over upper elevations will be fined tuned later but will begin with a couple of feet by next Wednesday over Old Wholly.

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………….:-)

10-18-2021

“Potential” for Event History for precipitation for October…….Central and Northern Sierra……

10-17-2021

Both GFS and  ECMWF global models show 1 to 3 feet of snow over Southern Mono County above 7000 feet by months end, most of which will fall next Sunday through Monday night.  It may be a cold All Hollow’s Eve.

Confidence is increasing by the day as more and more ensembles agree……

The Dweeber………:-)

10-16-2021. 9:45am

Brief update:

Sunday Night system is now deeper into California with stronger effects from system now expected.   Windy weather will develop for the high country late Sunday afternoon with light snow fall accumulations now expected in the high country Sunday night into Monday AM.   1 to 3 inches of snow. Possible for Southern Mono Country above 7000 feet Sunday night.

it will be much cooler for Monday with highs in the 40s.

The Dweeber will have a major update for the following weekend storm and accompanying potential Atmospheric Rivers this Wednesday the 20th.

10-15-21

Points of interest this AM;

1. Surface development off Japan on the 19th is split, but consolidates over following 24 hours period in both GFS and EC. Down Stream amplification still very encouraging with western pacific propagation still looking very promising.
2. No Significant PV over Hudson Bay area as AO fairly neutral, so pattern looks fairly progressive in the long run.
3. As the long wave over the eastern pacific develops, several AR’s are forecasted to port into the Northern and Central Ca coastal areas beginning the weekend of the 24th, then on and off through about months end. Big question is, how far east will the ARs extend.  Better chance of pushing through Mono County about the middle of following week. (25th)  But lots can change.  It will be lots of fun seeing how this all plays out in time.  Still have over a week….  Pattern favors high snow levels with Snow level coming down into town late next week.  Wet Snow best now!!
4. Take this following comment with a grain of salt….   GFS total QPF with today 12z deterministic shows 6 inches of water on the west side of the Mammoth Crest and up to 10 inches just west of Tahoe by months end.  Again, this is nothing to your hang hat on yet,  as this is mostly in the week 2 period which is fantasy land……but fun to watch!!  🙂

Will update Sunday or Monday.

The Dweeber………………:-)

10-13-21

SSTAs are different this fall with cool SSTAS and current warm pool between 170w and 150w.   Weak La Niña and -QBO will bring wetter winter to California than last!

10-12-2021

Snowfall totals 3 to 5 inches. Cold this AM with a low of 17 in the Snowcreek Meadow.
It will be warmer by some 10 Degrees Wednesday with another 10 degrees of warming by the Weekend.
A Stratowarm is in the early stages. It will probably not be as strong as the one last December that forced Meridional flow over Western Hemisphere. The point about Stratowarm is that it breaks up the polar vortex as it builds over the Arctic.  it can reverse some of the prevailing wind systems over the Arctic as well. Although there is no documented or direct correlation to a specific weather pattern in any specific area for the purposes of forecasting, it can break up the Polar Vortex and provide the mechanism for Meridional flow if it is strong enough. Meridional Flow develops because of high latitude blocking. The problem is, we do not always know where the meridional flow will occur, weeks out. The global models eventually pick up on the change. So it’s fun to watch to see just another of the wild events that can affect weather patterns over the higher latitudes. It is my understanding that there we be several Stratowarm events this winter. Possibly more than usual with the QBO being in its negative phase. Expect as a result, more blocking in the higher Latitudes and a better chance at times, to get more storms down over the west.
As mentioned earlier, the next chance of a storm will be around the 24th of October. You do not want to get too fixed on the date as there could be storminess within 3 days before or after as it appears that there will be more than one storm. I will say that the pattern really favors Northern CA. Tahoe resorts look to benefit the best. This 6 day period will be my focus over the next week. Stay Tuned….

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………:-)

10-10-2021 2:00pm

An impressive 150 knot upper jet is currently developing west of Seattle and will dig SSE down the California coast tonight and Monday.  Before translating east over CA Monday night, this system is one of the classic inside slider types that drives main vort max south along the Eastern Slopes of the Sierra and in this case Monday afternoon. Strong 500mb/1000mb thickness packing with N/S gradient will favor high winds for the Owens Valley, behind the front Monday afternoon and night.  Winds in some areas in excess of 60mph is possible. A high wind warning is in effect beginning at 11 Am Monday for the Owens Valley. In this pattern, most of the Mono County snowfall will occur behind the front Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning. Considering 700mb temps between -5 to -10C and thicknesses 500/1000mb down to 540 Monday night, I think Kuchera ratios are possible. So snowfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, between Town of Mammoth and higher elevations is possible. Another but weaker trof will translate through Wednesday.

Expect warming  temps Thursday through Saturday.   Low temps Tuesday and Wednesday Mornings in the mid teens in Mammoth. Highs in the upper 30s on Tuesday….then warming to low 60s for the weekend.

Next wetter system will be around the 24th of October.  It has support of Hovemoller surface bombing that spins up surface low pressure system off the coast of Japan on the 21st of October. As mentioned earlier, this storm could be a mountain opener…..

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……:-)

12:20PM 9-08-2021

Just a quick update.  Unoffical Storm Total so far on Mammoth Mt shows 6 inches at the Main Lodge with as much as 8 to 9 inches over the Summit, based upon .86 hundreds at the main lodge and considering the temperatures during the snowfall both at the main lodge and over the summit (24F)

A few snowshowers are possible today with little accumulation expected.   The next system will spin up a small Low over Northern CA tonight, then drop south during the day Saturday. This system is mainly over land. Some light snowshowers are possible.  There is an NE flow componant at 700MB Saturday afternoon and night, so some light upslope snowshowers are possible.  The system exits Sunday for a nice day. Then Cold Canadian system drops into the Great Basin Monday and Tuesday.  The latest GFS has this storm pretty progressive and so it may not do much for additional snowfall from Upslope.   Will update in this Sunday. There is a strong north wind signeture for the Owens Valley early Next Week so stay tuned for you travelers.   So the main word for early next week is cold and unsettled with possible snow showers Monday into early Tuesday. Some upslope as well.  High temps for Mammoth will be mostly in the 40s with 50s on Sunday and upper 30s to low 40s Monday and Tuesday. Lows in the upper teens and low 20s as well. Expect about 6 to 7 nights below freezing in town.

Brief Outlook;

Still looking like a couple of very interesting storms during the last 10 days of October.  They suggest the possibility of being Mountain Openers.  Will keep weary eye on those the next 7 days…..:-)

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……:-)

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It’s time to blow out the sprinklers this weekend as cold Canadian air invades the Eastern Sierra early next week.  In the meantime, a trof developing over the Eastern Pacific is splitting, with the more active southerly portion headed for the Central Sierra Friday morning. The most active period will be between 5:00AM and 11:00AM Friday morning for light snowfall.  During the wet portion of the storm, the snow level will be fairly high, generally above 8500 feet, elevations above 9000 feet may receive some 3 to 6 inches of snowfall mainly during the mid-morning period. The snow level does come down later in the day and overnight. However, by that time, most of the moisture will have fallen from the 1st system. The second system off the BC coast drops in behind the first one Saturday. It will have mainly an over land trajectory. There will be a period of NE flow at 700MB Saturday afternoon so possibly some light upslope precip. (Snow showers) The 3rd system is a Great Basin Storm with little moisture. However, it too will have a period of NE flow, (UPSLOPE) Monday night into Tuesday AM. It is possible to get an inch or two in town from that system.  The big message will be the coming chilly temps.   500-1000mb thickness Tuesday AM drop to 537DM. That’s good for teens in Mammoth Tuesday AM with highs in the 30s.   Takes some pics now of the aspens as many, but not all will turn black after the hard freeze…. Both Tuesday AM and Wednesday AM.

Outlook:

The remainder or 2nd half of next week looks dry.  A subtropical ridge is temporarily forecasted to build back into the west coast about Friday the 15th.  Looking at the ECMWF 5 day means, the long wave trof retrogrades westward to about 135 west by the 22. 500mb heights are reasonably high over Central CA.  The daily’s show another system that may affect Northern CA toward the 18th, so another trough is expected to affect the west coast with wind, cooling and possibly some light precipitation around the 17th or 18th.  Overall, the pattern suggests NW flow with the upper jet well to the north.

No major upper mountain snowfalls expected yet….

The Dweebs viewed the new ECMWF season monthly height forecasts. Its encouraging with the 564dm mean heights lowering into Central CA for February and March. More importantly, It is the trend that is encouraging as well as  500mb heights seem to be trending lower this year as compared to last.   And last but not least, the -QBO now in its negative phase is strengthening. So the lower stratowinds along the equator blowing from east to west are getting stronger, increasing the possibly of more high latitude blocking this winter.

The Dweeber………………………:-)