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Archive for March, 2022
Record Warmth followed by a Moderate Storm in the high country, next 5 days…….A cool down is expected prior to the following weekend…
Thursday March 24, 2022
SNOWFALL UPDATE:
Mammoth expecting some 3 to 5 inches in town and 7 to 10 inches up on Mammoth Mountain Sunday night through Tuesday Morning.
It will be a breezy day today with winds 25 to 30 MPH out of the WSW. Sky conditions parlty then mostly cloudy later today.
Highs in the Town near 60 today and 50s Sunday. Lows in the 30s. Snowfall to begin above 8000 feet Sunday night then lower Monday into Tuesday. (IOP; Monday night into Tuesday AM)
The Dweeber….
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A warm upper ridge building into the west coast is bringing record warmth for this time of the year. Mid 60s in Mammoth and mid 80s in Bishop is expected the next few days. Lows at night will be milder then normal, in the mid 30s. The weekend outlook looks mild with an increase of high clouds for our area. We can expect breezy weather to develop Sunday with the chance of showers developing during the afternoon. Snowfall will be likley Sunday night into Monday. The California Rivers Forecast center is showing up to an inch of QPF for our Sierra Crest. Thus some 7 to 10 inches is possible over the upper elevations of the sierra,, between Sunday and Tuesday. AM. Expect a warm up the middle of next week.
For the extended outlook, the Euro 500 Ext means is showing another Great Basin trough developing for the end of the month, so our warm up will be short lived, the middle of next week. It appears that there will be a series of weak type storms affecting California in early April with normal temperatures.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………..:-)
A Series of Fast moving spring storms highlight the pattern this week….Tuesdays system will feature higher snow levels, wind and light snowfall…..A wetter systerm is probable next weekend….
Monday March 14, 2022
After a raging wind storm Sunday morning, this morning was quite tranquel with sunny skys and calm winds. It will be a warmer day today Monday with clear skys and light to moderate breezes developing. The high temperature will be 54 in town today with lows tonight near 30 with wind.
A fast moving front will move through Tuesday morning bringing a dusting to an inch over the crest Tuesday. The upper jet is over Northern CA, so don’t expect much precip. It will about 5 degrees cooler Tuesday wIth highs in the upper 40s and lows in the momng in the lows 20s. Warmer weather returns Thursday into Friday with highs back into the low 50s.
This Weekend outlook offers the possibity of the first decient storm in weeks if not months. The only concern I have is that it may split a bit as it comes in. If it holds together well, it could dump a foot or more over the crest by the end of the weekend with the brunt of the storm either late Saturday night or early Sunday AM.
In the very long range, (Week 2) the GFS has a storm about the 27th/28th…At this time the Europian keeps the upper jet to the north on the 28th.
The Dweebs will update later this week….
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………:-)
Cold Upper Great Basin Trof Has pushed through this morning with Very Cold Temps in its wake…..Warming to follow into the weekend….Winter Passes on a dry note with better odds for meaningful snows with Springs Arrival….
Thursday March 10, 2022
3/11/22
Models beginning to react to the upcoming change of season with the upper flow becoming more progressive across the pacific and the La Nina pattern of predominantly meridional flow becoming less frequent in our future.. Like the Fall, until La Nina sets in, the upper jet sags ever so further south, with early season precip for the high country. However, once the PV sets up and extends south in the east, the EPR sets up close to west coast, periods of cold, wind and below normal precip along with periods of a cold upper trof over the inter mountain west. Now that Spring is around the corner, we may be getting back into the pattern that reflects a westerly flow that is progressive. Storms may now resume their trek into the west coast. However, in order to get them south into Central and Southern CA, the pattern will need to show rising 500MB Heights west of Hawaii.
There is beginning to be some support for this change in the week 2 global models; Additionaly, the MJO is forecasted into the Eastern Indian ocean and an increasing amount of surface cyclogenises is progged off the coast of Japan next week; and the Scripts AR site is showing an increase in Subtropical moisure making its way into the west coast during the week 2 period. These are all positive factors for an outlook for storminess. For what ever it is worth, the week 2 models are hinting at a signifacant storm for the Central west coast around the Vernal Equinox weekend. 19th/20th of March.
Keeping good thoughts!!
The Dweeber………………..:-)
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There is some remarkable air quality issues reported between Lone Pine and Olancha this afternoon. Looking at Airnow at 1:00PM; Keeler had PM 10 air quality counts of 439 at the Owens Dry Lake, Good time to be wearing those PM10 Masks! Winds are 30 to 40mph out of the North.
Weather in Mammoth was cold aablyt 1:15pm, slightly breezy with highs in the upper 20s, Winds NW 5 to 10MPH.
Forecast for Friday includes a warming trend. Expcet a high of 45 degrees with warming each day toward the mid 50s by Monday. It will be cloudy later in the weekend with breezy weather later Saturday into Sunday. The next system will be Tuesday from the west. Lots of high and mid level moisture but precipitation will be light as most forcing will be to our north. The Last Day of Winter will be Saturday. The equainox arrives the following Sunday the 20th at 8:33AM.
Longer Range:
Looking at the GFS Ext. Ens [M] 0.5 7 day mean….The ensemble does retrograde the mean ridge position from the west coast westward, well past Hawaii. The ECMWF does to some degree as well, but not nearly as much. I think that the idea is to slowly lower 500MB heights along the west coast beginning around the Equinox then through months end. In that there is not likley to be the big stagnent east coast trof like this winter at that time, storms may have an easier time getting in here, before the deserts heat up. More later…..
Dr Howard and the Dweebs….:-)
