Brought to you by Howard Sheckter
Archive for August, 2022
After a short break in the heat…..Heat comes back with Vengeance over protracted period through Labor Day Holiday followed by possible thunderstorm outbreak….!
Monday August 29, 2022
8/29/2022
After a slightly cooler weekend, a major heat spell will engulf California as the subtropical high rebuilds once again and a heat wave takes over the southern half of the state. High temps will be near record levels by mid week this week in Mammoth and hold through the holiday weekend (Low to mid 80s).
For Southern CA, desert heat moves into the valleys by mid week with highs between 100 and 110 later this week and into the next. Heat may break between Labor Day and the following weekend with an unusual thunderstorm pattern for Southern CA north to the Sierra as Monsoon moisture combines with easterly wave and tropical storm.
Lows at night in many areas will be in the 80s. GFS has very high precipitable water levels along with high dew points by the middle of week 2 for Southern Ca as tropical systems both in the Gulf of Mexico and Eastern Pac give a one-two punch. Worth noting is that the ECMWF is not nearly as aggressive with that pattern later week 2 but hotter this week. As always, time will tell. For the high country; The Labor Day holiday weekend will be more mid to late July like temperature wise, with highs running 10 to 20 degrees above normal.
Labor Day holiday weekend in So Cal could be a scorcher.
Plan ahead for near or record record heat.
Dr Howard and the Dweeb……………………:-)
A very warm week ahead is expected with record or near record high temperatures….High Temps cooling to the Mid 70s over the weekend along with gusty winds…
Monday August 22, 2022
8/29/2022
After a slightly cooler weekend, a major heat spell will engulf California as the subtropical high rebuilds once again and a heat wave takes over the southern half of the state. High temps will be near record levels by mid week next week in Mammoth and hold through the holiday weekend. For Southern CA, desert heat moves into the valleys by mid week with highs between 100 and 110 later next week. Lows at night in many areas will be in the 80s. Question is, where does our weather go after Labor day? GFS has very high precipitable water levels along with high dew points by the middle of week 2 for Southern Ca as tropical systems both in the Gulf of Mexico and Eastern Pac give a one-two punch. Worth noting is that the ECMWF is not nearly as aggressive with that pattern later week 2. As always, time will tell. For the high country; The Labor Day holiday weekend will be more mid to late July like temperature wise, with highs running 10 to 15 degrees above normal.
Labor Day holiday weekend in So Cal could be a scorcher.
Plan ahead for near record heat.
Dr Howard and the Dweeb……………………:-)
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8/24/2022
Some small changes over the weekend will bring a bit cooler weather to the high country as a trough of low pressure pushes through the Pacific NW. Expect a degree or two of cooling beginning today Wednesday and each day thereafter through Sunday. Today Wednesday is expected to be 79 degrees in Mammoth with mid 70s by Saturday and Sunday. An enhanced Zephier is expected this weekend making for the potential for critical weather WX. Winds could gust in the 30 to 40mph range!
The longer nights and drier airmass will allow lows at night well down into the 40s this weekend with even some 30s in the colder valleys.
Next week models shows more anomalous warmth by mid week as another strong upper high build over the west.
Record or near record high temperatures may return mid week next week!
Climatically…..The average high in Mammoth is now near 70 and low 90s in Bishop. Who knows what’s normal!!
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………..:-)
PS For those that wish to know where the monsoon went; its over Texas!
PPS September is an interesting month for the southern and central west coast. Watch out for dying tropical storms coming up Baja, who’s moisture may get caught up in an approaching west coast trough, then into Central California and Sierra around mid month! 😉
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Hard to say whether this will be the last hot week of the Summer. Models are waffling on the Labor Day holiday weekend in the week two period. Some runs have unusually high 500mb heights over the Great Basin, other runs showing SW flow with troughing to our north. Meteorological Summer ends a week from this Wednesday on the 31st so model week 2 accuracy will go down with the seasonally change
In the meantime, we have a nice afternoon Zephier that will take the edge off the heat this week. 15 to 30MPH in the late afternoon. Longer nights will allow good cooling to occur before sunrise. Highs this week mostly in the low 80s with lows in the 50s. I looks a little cooler this weekend but still at least 5 degrees above normal.
Dry conditions with a stable airmass will continue for the Sierra through Sunday…..Thereafter a southerly jet brings another opportunity for Showers and Thunderstorms as Early as Monday with increasing chances Tuesday and Wednesday for Additional Rain….
Thursday August 11, 2022
A dry SW flow continues to keep the Owens Valley and the Sierra, storm free through Sunday. This is due to a closed low off the coast, that opened into a Trof and was responsible for ushering in of dryer air last Saturday. The behavior of the Trof will change early next week, as it retrogrades west and allows the Continental High and Monsoon Ridge to back up again toward the CA/NV Boarder, (Monday into Tuesday). Thus another surge of Monsoonal moisture is destined northward into CA early next week. Of course, moisture alone does not necessarily give us rain in CA. However, a southerly jet will take its aim toward our area Monday and Tuesday, providing lift through Thursday. There after, the flow backs once again from the WSW providing another dry spell for the following weekend.
Daytime highs are mostly seasonal now with mid to upper 70s while lows at night in the mid to upper 40s. With moisture increasing early next week, our highs will pull back toward the low 70s while the mins will possibly move upwards to the low to mid 50s. Wind should not be an issue this weekend into middle of next week, although the Mono Zephyr may be a bit stronger Friday during the afternoon and early evening hours.
