10-13-2022 Update

No change in the short term with above normal temps in Mammoth to the tune of mid to upper 60s.   The NE flow will keep our weather dry with chilly nights down into the Upper 30 and low 40s through the weekend.

Longer Range:

Last nights ensemble runs for week 2 show the blocky pattern giving way to one that is more progressive. This means that pacific systems will begin to migrate toward the west coast.  At the moment, there is still AR potential for the State of Oregon south to Northern CA.  The upper jet extends further east as well as being stronger in the ECMWF runs. This mainly affects Northern CA northward beginning the weekend of the 23rd. The GFS is weaker with the upper jet and does not extend it as far east.  As mentioned below, a lot of changes in the models will take place this weekend and next week for the following weekend.  At the moment, best reasonable outlook thinking is that it will get Breezy to Windy that weekend for Mono County with the chance of showers along with much cooler temps. That is based upon the ECMWF which seems to be more consistent with yesterdays runs.  Note:  Again want to emphasize that a lot of changes in the models are expected next week.   Nothing is set in stone, other than a major change in our weather is coming for that weekend and into the last week of the month.

Tomorrow I will be looking at the MJO to see if there may be some tropical forcing going on, or a WESTPAC TS.


The Dweeber……………



Our Eastern Sierra Weather remains pretty uneventful through weeks end as a REX Block pattern with high pressure locked in for the week over the Pacific NW. To complete the REX, a small Cut Off low off the Southern CA Coast was giving LA some showers in its NE quad.  Expect Daytime highs in Mammoth to remain in the upper 60s with nights near 40.

Global models bring some change early next week by kicking out that Low to our south adding some clouds along with some cooling expected mainly Tuesday into Wednesday.

Longer Range:

Another Closed low is destined for the California Coast Wednesday and Thursday of next week.  As most know, things can get tricky with those. The GFS has the low kicking in through Southern CA Friday the 21st.  This would bring a chance of some showers along with cooler weather after mid week.  The European Model, is different in that the cut off approaches the coast then stall out well off shore then becomes stretched out to the west.

The big message today is that Both ECMWF and GFS has our first strong trof moving into the west coast next Saturday the 22nd and Sunday the 23rd.  Both ECMWF and GFS has a rather “Strong for October” AR attached to it.  The ITV shows a weak to moderate category “AR” at this time for Central CA.   Remember, its a long way out but definitely worth watching. The timing is around the 22st to the 23rd.

This is our first real storm potential of the Winter of 22-23.  Again, Its way too early to make plans at this time for meaningful snowfall, but the potential is there!


Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………:-)