11-5-2022 3:40pm


Quick Update;

  1.  GFS came over to EC solution late Saturday AM.  That is digging a bit further west and about 12 hours slower solution with Trof Axis coming in Wednesday AM vs Tuesday night.  So QPF was bumped up about .75 inches for Yosemite and Huntington Lake area by RFC.    The Dweebs feel that on mammoth Mtn, snowfall totals will be 3.5 to 5 feet now. The TOML. 18 to 30 inches by Wednesday Eve.

So as of this morning….The upper low is pushing into AZ while increasing northerly flow aloft is taking over the Eastern Sierra. For north wind prone areas, this means a rather blustery day is expected with gusty northerly winds of 30 MPH, while ambient temps will be in the upper 20s and 30s. Cloudiness will clear by evening and low temps will be colder than a snakes vest button by AM
Lows are expected near 10 degrees in Mammoth while Bridgeport valley goes below zero!

Friday will be a much milder day as short wave ridging builds in with highs up some 20 degrees from todays temps. So highs near 50 are expected in Mammoth with lows in the teens.

The next system is one that is as cold as this one, however, it is developing further west and it is slower moving. Integrated Water Vapor Transport (IVT) Shows 3 Weak AR pulses with the EURO; Sunday AM, Monday AM and Tuesday afternoon.

Being that this is another cold storm as well as our location being inland and high elevation, using the Kurchura method of Snow to Water Ratio seems prudent; snow fall amount up 36 inches are shown in the 12z Thursday GFS model while the Euro shows a whopping 58.4 inches storm total from last nights 00z deterministic run. Caveat; Snowfall amounts could be much less by the time the storm gets here. Will up date forecast amounts for this storm Saturday….

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………..:-)