12-28-2022

Heavy Drought Busting Precipitation is forecasted the next two weeks as a series of Atmospheric River’s are associated with and proceed most weather systems. This pattern will keep folks that are dealing with avalanche dangers on there toes as each wet storm contains a period of colder temperatures both before and after for lower snow levels between rain events, mainly below 9000 feet.

Some of the deterministic models are forecasting 25 to 30 inches of water over the next two weeks just west of the Sierra Crest. However remember, guidance is not a forecast and the models can change in a week.

This is truly a drought busting pattern if it continues weeks in the 1 through 4 week inter seasonal outlook,  as the Climate Forecast System model suggests.

Mammoth Mountain at the Main Lodge picked up 33 inches snow total at 9000 feet. Higher amounts most likely in the colder temps, certainly possible at 10,000 to 11,000 feet.

There will be a break today, then the next more potent AR arrives Thursday with initially snowfall for the town, before snow turns back to rain Friday Morning.  The snow level is expected to rise to between 8500 and 9000 feet down here in Southern Mono County Friday.  The snow level will come down again Saturday later Saturday morning with very heavy rain or snowfall amounts in the Town of Mammoth,  into the night.  The latest RFC QPF is for 7.5 to 8 inches of water, due west of the Sierra Crest..  It should be dry for New years Day and night with just some lingering snowfall in the morning hours. Conceivably, this could be a 5 to 6 foot snow maker above 9500 feet.

 

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………:-)

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As of 9:50AM Monday, a level 4 AR is expected to make landfall over Central CA Tuesday AM… Copious amounts of precipitation is expected to bring both rain and snow to the high county. Snow will change to rain tonight then heavy rain is expected below 9000 feet after midnight tonight through Friday AM. Cooler air will move in an lower the snow level by mid late afternoon to 7000 with the snow level lowering to the valley floor of Mono County Tuesday night. 5 to 6 inches of water is expected from this first storm. Any precipitation Wednesday night will be snow in town. However, yet another AR is expected to move in Friday into early Saturday AM with rising freezing levels up to 9000 feet. The freezing level come down later Saturday afternoon.  Total QPF the next 7 days is about 10 inches over and west of the crest. Another 7 to 9 inches is possible over the following week…

 

More later………………………