It was a beautiful morning in the Mammoth Lakes today. Still a deep snowpack at elevations at and above 8500 feet. This snowpack will inhibit surface convection, however, there will be an increase in mid to upper level forcing, in the high country this weekend, and a better chance of rainfall. Our freezing level is above 13000 feet so no snowfall expected. Our Sun angle is now about the same as July 25th and thus good surface heating will increase snow melt and stream flows as we go through the weekend. Those fishing the creeks and streams need to be mindfull about several potential hazards associated with our water ways, especially during mid afternoon and evenings during the peak diurnal water flow periods.

(Weather Medium Range)

High pressure aloft will continue to build, both along the coast of BC, Canada and over Central CA through this Saturday. Warmer weather with an increase of snow melt expected. In addition this weekend, an area of low pressure will spin up over Northern Baja and the Gulf of CA in a weak Rex Block Fashine. Moisture and some upper level forcing will contribute to an increase of showers and thunder this weekend, especially over areas with out snowpack. However, all areas have the threat of some rainfall. It should be noted that as long as a dense snowpack continues over the high country, there is going to be a persistant limitation on the usual high temps and afternoon convection until it is gone.

Next Week:

The upper level ridge will shift east early next week with the long wave ridge redeveloping near 140West. This will redevelop a mid latitude trof over the far west and Great Basin during the 2nd half of next week. Expect breezy and somewhat cooler weather for the high country, especially during the second half of next week. Temps will return to normal or even a bit cooler than normal into the following weekend. Upper 50s to low 60s?  Also, if a closed low or cutoff low develops off shore, there may be some showers.  Beyond that we get into June and its too far off to tell.

El Nino:

Continues to develop over the central to eastern pacific EQ region. It will be a long time for any expectation for mid latitude forcing, if we even get it!

Well see later in the Summer.

Remember, the high latitude response is a positive PNA or strong upper high over BC west to the Eastern Gulf of AK. That is in contrast or the opposite of the -PNA during La Nina.

El Ninos here in CA tend to affect our area later in the Winter and so it may be a very nice warm dry Fall! ?

The Dweeber……………………:-)