This first system with AR properties will begin tonight in the high country; snowfall will be wet with a snowlevel about 7000 to 7500 feet. That will decline to 6000 feet after midnight. Snowfall amounts in the 1 foot to 2.5 foot range is expected between Town and Mammoth Pass by Thursday night.

Friday could have snow showers and Saturday looks pretty dry.

Sunday and Monday looks to be the biggest storm days that Mammoth has experienced for a while with 2 to 4 feet of snow these two days and more possible Tuesday. This is a rip roaring AR that will really nail the snowfall over Eastern Slopes of the Sierras.

6 feet or more over the Crest after 6 to 7 days….






Points of interest:

  1. Beautiful days today and tomorrow Tuesday
  2. Winds increase Wednesday with strong winds in the afternoon and the chance of showers Wednesday afternoon with an increasing chance Wednesday night and heavy precip Thursday.
  3. Heavy Snowfall is possibly in Mammoth Thursday with the snowlevel 7500 lowering Thursday. This system has a Wet Front and can do a lot to really moisten Mammoth. The Forecast for QPF is 2.5 to 3.5 inches of water and so snowfall amounts over the crest could reach 2 to 3 feet by Thursday night. In Town a foot or better is possible by Thursday night.
  4. Friday looks showery with snowfall much lowers in elevations.
  5. Cold weather is expercted this weekend with very light accumulations Saturday.
  6. Beyond Saturday, it is noted that another storm is in process to make its way into Mammoth later Saturday night with snowlevel rising again before falling later Sunday.
  7. This looks like the possibility of a larger storm Sunday developing through Monday with many feet of snow over the town and especially the Upper Mtn. over that two day period.
  8. The big question remains….We’re in an El Nino Pattern.
  9. These storms like Southern CA.
  10. Will they hit hard on Mammoth Mt or slide south next week, with lesser amounts.

Stay Tuned…..








A warming trend is in play through early next week with highs in the low 50s in Mammoth by weeks end, lows in the low 30s. It will be dry through Tuesday with periods of clouds day and night.

The change in the pattern is still in the cards for late Wednesday, but details will be timely. The bigger change that the models had this morning was an airmass that appears to be cooler later next week. The suggestion is that the airmass maybe be all snow for Mammoth by late week. If this change is correct, several feet could fall into the following week, especially for Mammoth Mountain and eventually the town.  Will see how it all works out! Mammoth has been low in gathering precip this winter and a couple of Atmospheric Rivers would make a big difference.





Mammoth has a nice break the next 5 to 6 days untill next Wednesday night when the “possibility of a prolonged wet period event, occurs.  Temperatures move into 50s or near record levels by Monday with lows in 30s in Mammoth.

Next week looks very interesting with a strong band of south westerlies coming out, north of the Hawaiian Islands. This band looks like a Classic “AR”. Initially, the band has 500mb heights in the 560s but over time sags south with lower heights and much colder temps.

I’ll tell you, after a winter like this, I am so leary about the longer range, so lets just say untill next week, enjoy the sun, clouds, warmer temps and get ready for the potential for some serious weather in Mammoth during the 1st week of February.