I will begin this morning with the end of my last post with this;

 

Outlook: From January 9th.

Although the Dweebs have not seen the latest ECMWF model, the latest 12Z Tuesday GFS has the upper jet moving back into Northern California early next week where it keeps it there for several days. The Upper Jet sags south towards us, during the second half of next week. (Using the Japanese surface cyclogenesis method), as a timing tool used by Hovmuller, it shows a rapidly deepening surface low that is “bombing” off the coast of Japan the next Wednesday. That energy is expected to come through our area about Sunday the 21st. So, based upon this theory, the following weekend should be wet. (Again, I have not seen the latest EURO as it has not run yet) I will update later today….

Wednesday 10th 4:55AM

We have now become familiar with the term bombing. In meteorology, the term does not refer to some terrorists act. It refers to a rapidly deepening surface system over the ocean. It can happen geographically in the high to mid latitudes, over many areas of the globe in both hemispheres.

There are two terms that represent rapidly falling surface pressure and cyclogenesis over a period of time.

  1. Bombing or Bombing Out or bombogenesis is a term used when surface pressure at 60 degrees north latitude falls at a rate of at least 24 Millibars in 24 hours. This causes explosive development or rapid cyclogenesis.
  2. On November 10th, 2014, remnants of Super Typhoon Nuri caused surface pressures to fall 50 Millibars in 24 hours. The depth of that Bomb Cyclone reached an estimated 924 Millabars. I believe that this was more then enough for a case of “Super Bombing”?
  3. On another note, the Cyclone Bombing that traditionally occurs off the coast of Japan, occurs when cold Siberian air clashes with a disturbance in the westerlies over the warm waters of the western pacific. Rapid Bombogenesis occurs several times a year in this region.
  4. The late Meteorologist Ernest Hovmöller (1912–2008) discovered many useful tools that involved timing.  As an example, the Hovmöller diagram is a very useful tool for determining the speed of various atmospheric disturbances, as it contours a variable in both time and space.
  5. The Dweebs use Hovmoller’s western pacific Bombogenesis tool to help predict the propagation of energy across the pacific for the timing of short wave energy, that transits across the west coast. It is not 100% but is quite useful in determining whether the global models are being accurate in their timing.

Last nights ECMWF has the timing of the surface cyclogenesis like yesterday’s GFS, next Wednesday as well. So the propagated energy should come though sometime about Sunday the 22nd.  Moisture and precipitation will precede the energy, several days ahead. So expect precipitation to begin about Thursday or Friday next week (will fine tune timing later) into the weekend of the 20th. Note: Although this particular cyclone development may not be a “Bombing Cyclone”, the energy non the less will propagate across the pacific.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………:-)