10-29-22

Well….My concerns of the past week are beginning to occur.  That is, a storm that has plenty of cold air, is trending inland sooner, then shearing N/S over California, before closing off into a closed low over AZ Late Thursday/Friday.

This Saturday’s 12z GFS slides inland the system too soon to bring lots of snowfall to Southern Mono County.   So at the moment, predictions of 6 to 18 inches from yesterday have been trimmed back to half of that, for Southern Mono County. Northern Sierra will do better.    More in a Sunday update.

 

The Dweeber…………..:-)

 

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Over the next 10 days the flow coming off Asia becomes much more consolidated and amplified down stream. There is a nice vortex developing in the means over far NE Russia that will amplify the down stream pattern with anomalous ridging expected to develop into the Bering Sea, just east of the dateline. This pattern is highlighted in both 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day means. The pattern suggests anomalous troughing over the western US.  Below normal temperatures are expected to develop for the Sierra beginning next Tuesday and yes, periods of moderate snowfall with the pattern. This pattern at the moment suggests moderate snowfalls for both the Central and Northern Sierra beginning during the day Tuesday. This pattern has not be forced by any western pacific tropical storm, rather just good old mid latitude forcing.  Moderate Category is between 6 to 18 inches for the Eastern Sierra.

Although, timing, adjustments in precipitation amounts are expected, at this time, expect a series weather systems to begin increasing our snowpack during the month of November. The following system is expected  “around” the 7th.

 

More fine tuning in timing and snowfall amounts Sunday….

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………….