Extended Models Suggest that the warmest temperatures of the summer may still lie ahead…..Some Seasonal wind possible by end of next week….

Some of the finest weather in the eastern sierra in years, continues this weekend with daytime highs in the mid 70s and lows at the night in the 50s.  Afternoon zephyr winds have been typical, in the 10 to 20 MPH range, with late afternoon breezes up to 25 MPH at times today Saturday, and tomorrow Sunday expected….  Smoke from a few lighting caused fires to the NNE has thus far been minimal in Mammoth, due to periodic weak trofing to the west and its resulting WSW flow aloft.  The upper air pattern should continue to be favorable for clean air conditions at least through Monday this upcoming week.  Beyond that, the continental high will build back again by mid week, increasing our temperatures and bringing a return of some light morning easterly flow. This will do two things. 1.  We will experiences our highest temperatures so far this Summer by Wednesday. 2. If fires continue to burn to the NNE, conditions may turn hazy again by mid-week, however  mainly during the morning hours, until the afternoon Zephyr winds kicks in.   The mid to late Summer heat wave will last through Friday. Thereafter, it all depends upon which global model you prefer.  The European Model develops light SE flow by Saturday or Sunday.  So some seasonal wind/Monsoon for thunderstorms, while the GFS develops some light SW flow again…..Which would be dry. Either way, temperatures will remain warm here in the high country….

PS. The Euro is the Air Sea coupled model….Would it not be ironic for a summer that was relatively dry to turn wet the last four days of the month of August?…..Labor Day weekend. 😉

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………….:-)

A rather cool weekend shaping up as off shore Trofing pushes east through California….A little frost possible in the wind protected valleys, Sunday AM…Warmer early next week ….

This Summer has shown to be quite the trough’y one with very low thunderstorm days. Highs in Mammoth have run a good 5 to 6 degrees below normal this Summer.   In fact our average warmest day in July is 88 degrees, while 80 was the warmest.  We are settling in on a cool breezy weekend as low pressure from the Gulf of AK spreads cooling of some 5 to 7 degrees tomorrow in the high country.  Expect highs in the low to mid 60s on Saturday with breezy dry weather. Sunday morning, lows with range in the 30s and 40s.   Some cool spots like Devels Post Pile and Tuolumne Meadows may actually drop to the 20s Sunday AM.  Some frost is expected…..First taste of Fall?


Expect warmer weather with highs returning to near normal, then cooler the following weekend….Long range models continue the trend of the west coast Trof more often than not in August. this is typically a mild dry pattern with breezy weather in the high country. However, any tropical storm later this month could come into play getting caught up in the upper flow….


Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………….:-)

The return of troughing along the west coast will bring slightly cooler temperatures this week along with an enhanced Zephyr…The pattern will ensure a dry week for Mammoth Lakes….

Latest update shows an upper off-shore trough will keep our air-mass dry through at least Saturday.   The Southwest flow brings both stability to our atmosphere as well as a drier air-mass. Some cooling will occur by midweek with high temps settling back to the mid 70s from a high of 79 on Sunday. Lows at night that have been in the 50s will cool down to the 40s in the more wind protected areas. The Mono County Zephyr will be enhanced each afternoon and evening hours so that areas of Town like the Mammoth Meadow area will have gusts to at least 30 mph. Other areas of town will have west winds in the 10 to 20 mph range. The SW Monsoon and its air-mass modifying effects has shifted well east of California, not allowing any related precipitation at least through Saturday. This is true for both the Southern and Central Sierra. Some of the global models this morning try to build back westward, the continental high, strong enough to bring a warm up,  along with moisture, and the air-mass modification. Thus will introduce  the slight chance of showers and thunderstorms by early next week.  At the moment, it is only a slight chance, until there is more agreement with in the global models for that following week.


Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………………:-)