Excellent Snowpack for the beginning of the 2018-2019 Ski Season with up to a 6 Foot Base….Split flow pattern returns to Eastern Pacific offering a Drier Pattern for the next week to ten days with only a few periods of snow showers…..Next Signifacant Stormy Period about the 17th……

Saturday AM:

The headliner says it all…Storm systems will run into Higher Heights as they approach the west coast next week, causing them to weaken, dampen out and even split once inland. This is likely to continue for a full week. There are a few quasi NW or inside sliders that will traverse through as well next week. Any of these systems can produce cooling and wind over the upper elevations…..And of course some snow showers.  However, very light if any accumulations are expected.

The Eastern Pacific will become more conducive in allowing stronger weather systems back into the central west coast beginning as early as next weekend. However, a more likely period will be very early that following week. The storms look to be accompanied by some fairly strong winds!

More Later next week……

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………:-)

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This will be a short update….  However I will elaborate further, later this afternoon after the next two sets of WX ensembles are out.  The main idea is headlined above with an EP split flow pattern with WX systems dampening or splitting as they progress through the central west coast.  (Very Common Pattern)  We will have a beautiful sunny weekend on tap with a bit cooler than normal temps…. highs in the low 40s;  Lows in the teens.  The snow will be dry and crispy and great for the ego!!  🙂  Next Storm Cycle About the 17th….

Upper low to move through Southern CA Tomorrow….There will be areas of some heavy rain….Split flow Blues arrives for California through mid month….

 

With a 6 foot Base on top, Mammoth Mt has the most snow reported in the country!!

Thursday AM:

As the upper low off the coast of Southern Ca kicks inland to day, expect lingering snow showers with little or no accumulations. Highs to day will be near freezing in town with lows in the teens.   It will be fair and warmer over the weekend with highs in the 40s and lows in the teens.

Next splitting weather system early next week with light amounts expected.

 

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There have been some important changes in the forecast progs the last 24 hours and some that have been in the making for the past 3 days..

  1. Upper low and its dynamics “will now move through Southern California Thursday”. The core of the low moves over Malibu Early Thursday AM.   However, the core usually does not have the heavier rains! I hope you folks in the MB foothills dodge a bullet!! However, there are other burn scare areas of concern like the Anaheim hills. You folks may have some very heavy convective showers Thursday.
  2. Split flow blues…   A new feature in the 5 day means will force splitting of WX systems along the west coast. This feature is a negative upper height anomaly over the Southern part of the CONUS.  Looking at both global models, EC and GFS, it takes until mid month for it to move out off into the Atlantic. Until then, weather systems “WX SYSTEMS” (WX is international acronym for weather) will split more often than not as they approach the west coast. The track of the southern branch of the split will determine whether LA gets more rain and if Mammoth will get more snow from the Monday/Tuesday WX system. The timing of the split and location all come into play for the weatherman and the models will do their best to resolve.
  3. Silliness; Just have to bring it back; Split Flow Blues sung to Jan and Deans Mighty GTO.
  4. I got the split flows blues…..yea on on my mind…..
    Systems splittening off the west coast…. wasting all my time….
    If it doesn’t snow soon, I’m gonna loose my mind….. yea yea.
    These storms are splitten up, breaking up….wipen out….split flow
    blues….
    I’m gonna save all my money……Gonna save my dimes…..
    I’m gonna catch the next plane….where the powder is fine
    Got my DC’s and Super S’s packed…..I’m Dreamin of- the- time….yea yea…
    These storms are splitting up… breaking up…. drying out….. split flow blues.

Short and Medium Term Forecast

New track of upper low will offer the possibility of Snowfall to near or the valley floor of the Owens Valley, Mainly late tonight into Thursday Morning. Some areas may get up to 7 inches over a 12 to 15 hour period.

For Mammoth, our best shot of precip will be tonight into Thursday AM in the southerly flow after the closed low opens into a trough. I expect another 2 inches of snow to as much as 5 inches over the higher terrain. This will all be followed by a fair weekend with milder temps by Saturday and Sunday. (mid 40s) during the day.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………….:-)

 

Mammoth Mountain Reports 3 to 5 feet of fresh snowfall bottom to top….With another 4 to 7 inches possible tonight and Saturday…Then a nice break Sunday into next week…Only Light to Possibly Moderate snowfall expected next Tuesday and Wednesday…

No surprises this morning…

Warm air advection precipitation to began around midnight tonight. CRFC gives the west side about .5 to .6 of an inch of QPF over the next 3.5 days. Amounts on Mammoth Mt look to be less than a foot with the town possibly between 2 and 5 inches over a 3.5 day period.

Remember this storm never really comes into CA. The cold dynamic portion remains off shore. However, there may be a bit of upper divergence over the sierra from the upper low before it fully opens into a wave.

The update on the longer range outlook shows a storm a week away that may split and bring mainly moderate amounts of snowfall beginning Monday Night into Wednesday.  More later on this system, later this week..

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………….:-)

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Sunday AM !1:10am

Good morning everyone.  It was definitely a bluebird morning as although I did not see any blue birds, the skies were so blue and bright, you had to use sunglasses from being blinded. The lighting in December is extra special with the sun arching across the sky so low this time of the year.

The forecast models show the next weather system following a similar tract that it did with earlier runs. Here is the main point I want to make about this storm. The upper low never comes into California. So there is no real dynamic forcing with the cold air at its back.  It is all warm air advection.  What does this mean?  Precipitation to a major extent will be developing because of the cold air that was left from Saturdays storm and from the mid level moisture moving up and over that cold air. There is no real terrain enhanced orographics from the sierra either. However, there is one other lifting feature and that is limited surface convergence/deformation before the upper low opens into a trof.  As indicated yesterday, this is going to be mainly a west side event with light to moderate snowfall at most over the sierra crest.  I have seen storms like this bring nothing to the town or just a few inches and sometimes up to a foot over the top. So, whatever we get is not going to be major amounts and do not be disappointed if we do not get much at all.

I will have another look at it Monday late morning…

The storm you are waiting for will be the storm for the 10th…That will possibly dump a good foot or two.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………:-)

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Snowfall tallies look a bit shy on Mammoth Mt as the Snow plot at the Main Lodge showed 6.5 inches. The Dweebs estimate the mountain received 6.5 inches at the Main Lodge and 10 inches on top. The actual snowfall report will be provided by Mammoth Mt in the morning. Here at Mammoth Weather, I picked up between 4 and 5 inches.

The next upstream system for Tuesday and Wednesday seems to wants to hang on a bit longer to the north, before heading south into Northern Baja.  If this trend continues, we are going to get more snow out of this next storm than reported yesterday.  I am going to wait another day and report tomorrow afternoon.

Otherwise the next Major Storm according to both the GFS and ECMWF looks to begin about Sunday night the 9th. It looks potentially to be a 1 to 2 day storm. Although the ECMWF has a couple smaller storms later that week, there is the potential for a significant “AR” around the 15th.

 

The Dweeber…………………..:-)

 

 

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After 3.5hr Shoulder replacement surgery Thursday Morning at Mammoth Hospital, The Dweebs did not want disappoint the wonderful Docs, Nurses and physical therapist’s, that took great care of me the past 36 hours, and so I am here, but reports will be abbreviated.

Thursday storm’s arrival was bit late, however it dropped pretty much what was expected on Mammoth Mt, 3 to 5 feet bottom to top.. Amounts reported in town ranged from 18 inches up to 2.5 feet. It was the best Pre Christmas gift that the Mountain could have asked for….And yes, there is more coming…..Smaller systems, with poor upper jet support…But better storms down the road.

The upper jet with Saturdays system will create much more shadowing, so the town will likely get less than what you would expect as compared to Mammoth Mountain.

Additionally, Saturdays system will be a WNW slider in which the Northern Sierra will do better precip wise than Southern Mono County. Nevertheless, because of the forecasted cold temps at 700MB, it will be all quality no matter how much we get. There is another system headed for Northern Baja Tuesday-Wednesday. Mammoths best shot will be Tuesday into Wednesday as it nears the coast before it dives south. For Mono County, Once again, the west side of the sierra will do much better than the east side. Mammoth Mt may pick up some 5 to 8+ inches over the crest. However, again it does not look like much of a plow for the town…..2 to 5 inches?

Southern CA well get a decent shot of precip with most of the heavier precip remaining just off shore….Although the trend in 00z Saturdays run European model is to push heavier amounts into the coastal areas near Malibu after midnight Wednesday night.  South facing coastal mountain near Malibu will have best orographic lift in the southerly flow.

More later when the guidance in the shorter time frame range should have better clarity…..Will update Sunday…..

 

The Dweeber………………….:-)