Heat Wave to come to an end the upcoming week with more seasonal temps by Thursday….The Arizona Monsoon to provide badly needed rains soon…..

7/17/21  6:15PM

NWS has issued red flag warning for high fire danger beginning 11:00AM Sunday to 11:00AM Monday.

A small system moving up from the northern  Baja coast and along the Southern CA coast will increase moisture and dynamics for both afternoon and night time thunderstorms in the Sierra.  In that the lower levels will be initially very dry, these will be dry thunderstorms with few rain shafts reaching the ground Sunday PM.  There will be a high problability of lightning in the Southern Sierra north to Southern Mono County. Again, these storms are possible all night Sunday over the Southern and South Central Sierra.  Hybrid or wet storms will arrive during the afternoon Monday into Monday Evening…..

 

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7/16/2021  5:15pm

Update on Monsoon Pattern
Latest guidance shows that there will be 2 surges of Monsoon Moisture for Eastern CA, north and south including Eastern Deserts of Mono and Inyo next week. Mountains and Deserts of Southern CA next week will get some rain. Yes, there could be some areas of Heavy Rain in some of these storms, however the pattern does not persist long enough for any major problems. Mountains of La County southward may get rain and thunder. Except for parts of San Diego County, for those in the coastal sections, you will have to take a trip to the high country to get rained on most likely. The Eastern Sierra of Mono County will get some rain and there will be isolated areas of heavy rain, but precipitable water amounts are nothing special. Timing is Sunday, Monday and possibly Tuesday before it dries out again for East Central CA. Mid-week look dry, then the Euro gets more bullish about Friday and Saturday with the remains of an easterly wave moving toward our area. We will see how its looks early next week for the following weekend. Overall, we have the trof in the pacific NW again with periods of SW flow next week with periods of SE flow too.

Now for some great news! As most know, the Desert Southwest is in exceptional drought. It appears that an easterly wave will stall out over the desert southwest about the middle of next week bringing heavy rain and much cooler than normal temperatures. Hope it brings much relief to that area. It will also bring flash flooding, but you cannot have it both ways in the summer!
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………:-)

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Its almost over. Another few more days of heat. Forecasted highs in Mammoth in the upper 80s expected today Sunday and again Monday, with highs cooling to the low 80s by Thursday. The zephyr is back this week. Those afternoon and evening breezes will be more than welcome!  The pattern shift is due to the upper high over CA gradually weakening and giving way to a trough of low pressure in the Pacific Northwest. This will be a drier pattern with SW flow returning.

Longer Range:

Both ECMWF and GFSX show the Subtropical High rebuilding again as early as the end of the new week.   However, this time it is not expected to retrograde into CA and NV with extreme heat.  Instead, it initially builds over the Climatically favored four corners states, then builds north along the borders of UTAH and CO.  With the Subtropical high that far north of its normal position, its underbelly can transport Monsoonal Moisture and Dynamics into Nevada and California. Currently, it is questionable if the surge gets far enough west to affect the coastal sections of Southern CA…..Although it is possible. Thusfar, the models are not as bullish there.  The Dweebs will keep an eye out for Easterly Waves/Inverted Trofs moving across Old Mexico the week of the 20th. The Models are favoring beginning Thunderstorm’s action about the 19th of July.

FYI; The period of the last week of July into the first 7 days of August are prime time for thunderstorms here in Eastern CA with the last weekend of July this year being most favored.  If you are a betting person, that’s the worst weekend to plan an outdoor wedding in the Eastern Sierra. Again, this is Climo, or what you would expect…..Not necessarily what you get.

 

Climate:

Some scholarly articles show that Low Solar activity coincides with more meridional flow in the planetary wave or mid latitude Rossby Wave Flow. Might that coupled with climate change be responsible for the rare heatwave over the NW this Summer?

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………….:-)

Sweltering Heat Wave will Peak Sunday as Upper high settles into Southern CA early next week…..Significant cooling will not occur until Thursday into Weekend……Another Heat Spell is Possible the following week with the chance of Monsoonal Flow….

7/10/21

Death Valley had a high of 130 on Friday.

Bishop today had a high of 111 today, breaking the all time temperature record of 110  on the 10th of July 2002. These two temps within 19 years of each other are the highest temps in 125 years….

 

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It’s not often that you see a high temperature forecast for Death Valley of 130-degree Fahrenheit. However, that is the high temperature forecast for that region today….88 for Mammoth Today and 91 Sunday. The forecasts for this Summer were warmer than normal, indeed.  As the Great Basin and Eastern California gets through possibly the hottest heat seage of the Summer, the Dweebs are now focusing on the week after.  Where are we going forward. I do expect temperatures to pull back into the low 80s by next Thursday and Friday. That is a bit warmer than normal but very comfortable. The big issue with the heat here in Mammoth this weekend is at the Mono Zephyr has been squashed due to the Thermel trough both day and night to the west of us. This is due to the strength and position of the upper high. The upper high builds into CA this weekend and is also capping most convection untill Sunday afternoon when it will get so hot that convection may actually punch through a cap that has a freezing level at about 17,000 feet!

When you cannot get cross ventilation in your home or condo and temperatures are near 90 degrees, that’s uncomfortable. However, next week the Mono Zephyr comes to our Rescue! I think that even those that hate the west wind in Mammoth will enjoy the breezy afternoons next week.

The pattern next week is highlighted by a weakening subtropical high over our state and a trof in the Pacific NW along the coast. This supports west afternoon and evening winds that will trend stronger, as the week goes on.  However, another heat spell is lurking in the west’s future for the following week. The details have yet to be worked out. The ensembles are trending the Subtropical Continental High to the east of us this time. Looking at the GFS ensembles 7 day means, the position is forcasted to set up over SE Utah, which is better for the advection of monsoonal moisture into California.  The big question will be if there is going to be any lifting mechanisms with it like easterly waves.  Given the time of year which is becoming or at the least toward the end of July, I think so…..

Have more on this next week…..

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………….:-)

 

Scorchin Week ahead for the Deserts with Heat Wave peaking this weekend…..No Monsoons to cool in sight…..Records once again in Jeopardy….Mono Zypher to bring relief to the High Country….

Excessive Heat Warning begins Wednesday through Monday for the Owens Valley with highs 105 to 110 expected. It is very possible that this crazy heat wave may last well into next week……

This Weekend, Mammoth Lakes has one of those rare oppertunities to break 90 degrees. Other 90+ degree oppertunities will continue into early next week. This only occurs during the very hottest summers without Monsoonal flow.

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7/6/21 11:00AM

New 12z GFS keeps high country very warm through next week. 80 to 90 at resort levels.

Opinion:  Subtropical high with persistant East-West ridge, 30 to 40+ north extends off shore.  This heat wave has legs as drought feedback system with lack of snowcover in high elevations,  warm trees, very dry conditions maybe in play.  String of 100+ days in Bishop may break all time records for staying 100+ at the Bishop AP the next two weeks.

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At least for Northern and Central CA, another potentially record-breaking heat wave is on tap with little hope for any Monsoon moisture before mid-month. Only heat related isolated thunderstorms expected over the highest elevations at time. The config of the upper high over the desert southwest will retrograde back over Central CA providing not only very high 500mb heights but “strong capping” (warm air aloft), inhibiting “most” thunderstorms from development. Additionally, the upper high will shunt moisture from the SSE away from our area. Looking at the precipitable water loop, there is a surge of moisture from the SSE that will affect Southern CA toward the end of the week. It is progged to stay out of our area. However, even in Southern CA this week, there will be no lifting mechanism or significant instability for rain. The air mass is for the most part stable. With that said, Precipitable Water does rise to between 1.00 and 1.50, so some areas will feel humid inland from the coast. Longest range models continue retrogression of the upper high, with only some, model runs hinting of an easterly wave injecting moisture up into Eastern CA just after mid-month. So what we have here is another protracted heat wave for the deserts of Mono and Inyo Counties with little if any relief from thunderstorms expected in the foreseeable future. This heat wave comes during the climatically warmest week of the year, with the all-time record high in the bishop area (110F) the 10th of July. The predicted high for this Saturday and Sunday is 109F. However, highs of 107 to 109 at the Bishop AP are forecasted beginning this Wednesday through next Monday. The only consolation is that this is a dry pattern with relatively low dew points for this time of the year, so Swamp Coolers will do their Job…
At Mammoth Lakes, expect mid 80s to 90 degrees beginning today Tuesday through next Monday. The Mono Zypher will bring relief each afternoon with its west wind into the evening hours. However, It will be uncomfortable this weekend temperature wise, the Zypher will weaken and nights may only dip into the low 60s at 8000 feet. This is expected to be the hottest week of the year!! Some isolated TSRWs may occur with little relief expected.

Climate:
La Nina may make a return in the Fall….More later on that….

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………:-)