First Week Of May will be Warmer than Normal…..Extended Outlook (6 to 10 day) shows warm tranquil weather with out any significant wind or precipitation….

It is almost like mother nature flipped a switch that took us from the cold season to the warm…

There was some anomalous weather Sunday as the front right portion of the upper jet over Northern CA brought strong down sloping, compressional type heating to the Owens Valley. As a result, Bishop was some 30 degree warmer than Mammoth. Bishop had a high of 83 Sunday while Mammoth was 53. Monday morning began rather cool in Mammoth with a low of 28.

Today Monday, is an uneventful day as far as any dynamical and sensible effects upon the atmosphere.

 

The Upper Jet is lifting slowly to the north without any down-sloping or any Adiabatic (compressional type heating) expected for the Owens Valley. As a result, even though 500MB heights will be higher today, the warming will occur in the high country, whereas the Owens Valley may be a degree or two cooler today.   However, by Tuesday, a sensible jump in temps will occur for all of the Eastern Sierra. Expect mid to upper 80 in Bishop, and upper 60s in Mammoth Lakes, Tuesday.

By Midweek, A short wave will move to the north and bring an increase of breeze and pause our warm up for a day. In back of the wave, ridging will build in strongly and will eventually build up into Canada, North/South over the far west.  This cuts off flow from the pacific over the weekend, As a result, high temperature records will be in jeopardy again…  Highs in Bishop will reach mid to upper 90s at the Airport while Mammoth enjoys a comfortable 75 Saturday….. low 80s in Bridgeport.  Short wave action returns Monday for breezy and somewhat cooler weather….

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………:-)

April Ends with Record Heat followed by Seasonal Temperatures by Weeks End….Cooler weather will be short lived with a rapid warm up by Mid Week…..

It appears that April will end with a record breaking heat wave for the Sierra. A flat ridge of high pressure aloft gets pumped up over the Golden State with today’s 12z GFS 500mb heights progging a peak of 588 dm by 06z Wednesday, while 500mb-1000mb Thicknesses peak at 572DM Tuesday night and 571DM again Wednesday early PM.  So the warmest day will likely be Wednesday.  Temperatures records for Bishop for the next few days for April are; 27th-90 in 1949; 28th-92, in 2013; 29th -91, in 2013.  It appears that this Wednesday’s Bishop record in is Jeopardy.

 

Highs in Mammoth will likely reach between 70 and 72 degrees.

For the High Country, as the upper ridge shifts into Nevada Wednesday, strong Zephyr winds 30 to 35 MPH will develop that afternoon into the evening hours. Thursday will begin a cool down in the high country that will extend into Sunday. Thursday afternoons winds will be even stronger with gusts to 40+ mph locally. The Upper Jet is expected to sag south into North Central CA by Sunday Morning. This raises the possibility of some light showers for Mammoth Sunday morning.  More over….the prospects for additional cooling is expected Sunday where high temps are expected to cool to the mid 50s. It will be breezy all weekend…Nighttime temperature’s may return to the upper 20s by Monday AM.

BTW, seasonal highs in Mammoth this week are in the upper 50s,  So as of late, although the highs will reach the low 70s tomorrow and Wednesday, temps will be returning to more seasonal levels which may feel much cooler than what you are going to get used to the next few days.

Longer term:

The trend of temperatures will see-saw next week as heights RAPIDLY increase again over CA by Cinco de Mayo. IT WILL WARM QUICKLY MIDWEEK!   The upper jet retreats north, while the longer range GFS and ECMWF ensembles show the long wave trof retrograding with long wave ridge position holding firm over the far west.  Additionally there are two moderately strong short waves that will be deflected up into the pacific NW both Thursday and Saturday. So the warmth will be accompanied by periods of wind between migrating short waves.

 

Sensibly, high temps will return above normal next week with highs well into the 60s by mid week and possibly 70 by Sunday the 10th of May.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………:-)

Wrapping up April Precipitation the next Few Days then serious warm-up 2nd half of the next week with 60s possible by weeks end 26th….

Another 3 to 5 inches of snow fell on Mammoth Mt the past 36 hours.  A few showers are still possible today Saturday as the small storm exits to the east….Sunday looks fair with highs near 50. The next and last upstream system weakens as the upper blocking ridge in the GOA shifts east to the BC, Can coast Sunday. The remains of the short wave comes in Monday into Tuesday AM negative tilt…with showers and possible thunder showers.   The snow level can still give Mammoth Snow Showers.  There after, the upper jet pulls north for an extended period as the long wave Trof sets up north of Kauai and long wave ridging sets up inland over the Far Western States.   With this change, comes much above normal temperatures for California.  This is likely to develop during the 2nd half of next week. In fact, there is even the possibility of near record highs for the Owens Valley the next Sunday or following Monday. (between 85 and 90)  With that said, until a good part of the snow is gone in the high country, it will be difficult to achieve record highs as they most likely occurred during the driest years.  Nevertheless,, 60s is still possible in Mammoth by about the end of next week or early the following week!

 

Let the serious runoff begin!!

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………….:-)