Storm Door Closed?…….Don’t look to the West…….Look East….

Wednesday AM:

Forecast remains on track with a chilly NW slider bringing breezy cooler weather to the high country Thursday. Highs will cool to the 40s on Thursday with nights in the teens and 20s there after. The weekend looks fair and dry with seasonal temps.

Longer Range is well discussed in the past two discussions’. Cold air in the east must more out over the Atlantic to open the wave-length. This looks likely to occur during the week of Thanksgiving. It is unknown at this time, the timing of the first storm that week.  However, most likely between Thanksgiving and that following weekend.

 

The Dweeber…………………..:-)

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Tuesday AM:

The discussion below gives a good explanation of why it is dry in California. Sure, there are underlying reasons for the current pattern that are more climate driven and involve other types of teleconnections.  However, for the rest of this discussion I will discuss this weeks weather which is also important from a snow making point of view.

It appears that the warmest weather of the week is over for the time being. The wave length that exists this morning includes a sub tropical upper level ridge west of Baja, MX. The high is ridged negative tilt to 140 West all the way into the Gulf of AK.  The polar jet on the North East flank of the ridge sweeps SE through Washington State, to the Central Mid West then NE through New England via the Great Lakes states. Over the next 3 days, polar air will sweep south through the northern plains deepening that trof, so that by this Friday, deep polar air with 1000-500mb Thicknesses down to 504DM will enter the US via North Dakota and Wisconsin.  Shots of snowfall will occur in these areas this week and will intensify later this weekend.   Through this process, a dry cold front will sweep through the Great Basin and the Eastern Sierra Thursday Morning, bringing wind over the crest, breezy weather to the lower elevations and a very dry chilly air-mass.  This is a dry pattern, but will greatly enhance snow making conditions on Mammoth Mt as the week progresses with Thursday the best day for round the clock snow making.

This morning I am of the opinion that we will have a good storm or two between Thanksgiving and the end of the Month. It is possible that it may occur sooner, but better odds after the movement of the Eastern CONUS Trof off the east coast around Thanksgiving….  The new updated ECMWF EPS 45 day outlook arrives later today. I will post in Wednesday morning as it relates to our area…

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………….:-)

 

PS. Thanks Tom for sharing your insight.

 

 

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I have to remind myself that this is November. I am still wearing short sleeve shirts to work and even through it was getting dark when I left the office late this afternoon, I did not need a jacket!

The pattern across the Pacific is one that features lots of splits and cutoff lows in the flow and a ridge in the mean off the west coast.  Although there has been an active pattern at times in the Pacific Northwest, California and much of the west has been out of it.  If you want to see part of the tail that is wagging the dog, just look at the 6 to 10 day temperatures outlooks. It shows a lot of cold in the central and eastern sections of the US. This cold is part of a big east central long wave Trof that assist’s in the block effecting California. This block is a high pressure ridge off the west coast.  In order for the west coast ridge to weaken, the cold anchoring Trof to the east has to move off shore to open the wave length. Once the wave length opens, the pattern of westerlies across the pacific is likely to become consolidated and west coast storms are likely to move south again into California.  Will this happen, yes!  When;  good question? So without any meaningful deterministic guidance that shows good probably in time, lets see what the ensemble’s of the global models showed today.

 

The GFS (American Models) ensembles are showing the east coast cold moving off into the Atlantic by the 17th.

Euro (ECMWF) ensembles shows the major source of cold moving off into the Atlantic about the 15th with another shot about the 20th.

The Canadian seems to be the fastest in consolidating the flow across the pacific.

The main message here is that all the global models seem to be moving the cold in the central and east, off shore. They are just different in timing.  The Canadian suggests that the change in wave length looks more likely the weekend before thanksgiving and the others around or by Thanksgiving itself….

In the meantime, enjoy the weather now, then be ready for a gradual cool down this week.   Better conditions for snow making ahead….…:-)

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………….:-)

 

 

A Perspective from All Hallows Eve…………….

11/2/2018

Note:  Snow has been building in Russia and Canada (especially east and central). It is above normal in most areas. The EPS from the Euro climate model shows snow building up well over the Western Mountains by Mid December.  This tells me that we’ll have good snow pack for skiing over the Christmas & New Years holidays.  🙂

1st good storm “may hit”  as early as November 14th.

The Dweeber……………………:-)

 

11/1/2018

Brief look this morning at the GFS 12z run shows 4 distant short waves in a NNW flow aloft.  One Friday night, Sunday night, Wednesday Am and Friday Am.  Each one will be associated with an increase in wind over the Sierra Crest. Each one will bring at least some cooling,  following by some warming the next day.

With the upper ridge parked out at between 125 and 130 west, we’ll stay dry for the next 7 days.  Daytime highs will vary in Mammoth between 55 and 62 with lows at night in the 20s for the most part.  Dew points will remain low, and so snow making conditions will be good at night.

Climate models still show moderate snowfall before the end of the month…

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………..:-)

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It is almost November and it is time to take a serious look into the Crystal Ball for the weeks ahead…… For you Met Techs

Tools:

  1. Dynamic Models from CLIVAR
  2.  MJO
  3. Precip composites
  4. Lagg correlations in time
  5. Teleconnections from ECMWF and GFS
  6. CFC V2
  7. Ensembles and Control from ECMWF and GFS

 

Although the short term outlook is dry with temperatures recovering from a dry cold front last Sunday, there are Western hemispheric changes in the pattern forecasted for the next few weeks from our climate models that may result in sierra storminess about the middle or just beyond in November.

Here are the climate signals used and comments.

  1. The dynamic models are showing the reemergence of an MJO signal over the Pacific, Western Hemi then propagating to the Indian Ocean. SEE: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml
  2. At 200Hpa,, the Lagg Composites show for November MJO in phase I producing troughing California.  (Go to Phase I; no Mask (OND)   http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/LaggedComposites/
  3.  Check out precip composites for the MJO in Phases 1 and 2.  with phase two of the MJO having the greatest odds for Central CA.   http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Precipitation/
  4. Teleconnections…  AO is forecasted to become negative in Mid November which usually suppresses the upper jet to the south.  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml
  5. CFC v2   http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/  (Suggests precip the end of the 2nd week of November into 3rd week)
  6. GFS control and ensembles are not showing any convincing signs yet of a good storm into California, but the foundation of the above may change that in the next week.

Change in pattern is still dry…However will be cold enough to start making snow….Winds will pick up Sunday with most Aspens of Strong Autumn Color getting stripped of leaves……Weather to be Chilly for All Hallows Eve….Then Seasonal Temps returning later in the week…Another Cold Slider possible the following Sunday or Monday….

10:00am Tuesday:

This morning is back to the same idea as the weekend that it will be a cooler day today. Highs near 50.  Colder night tonight.

Eastern flank of ridge back into CA this weekend for warmer then normal temps and low 60s…

Next chance of WX system is the 10th….

 

 

Monday PM the 29th:

One of the changes this morning show that the winds are a lot lower than the earlier guidance suggested. So far, the gusts over the sierra crest early this afternoon were only to 40 MPH. They were supposed to be in the 50 to 60MPH  class.  Additionally, the amount of cooling is also less. In fact the new guidance suggests that high temps on Tuesday which is supposed to be the coolest day of the week, now is actually looking a bit warmer than today Monday. So in all actuality, the amount of cooling in this Trof is probably about 1/2 of what was expected.  The next few days look seasonal temperatures wise, mid to upper 50s with ridging building closer to CA Thursday into the weekend.  Daytime temps shows highs back into the low to mid 60s as early as Thursday, then staying there into the weekend. Nighttime lows in the 20s tonight, Tuesday and Wednesday will rise to the low 30s over the weekend. More NW slider type systems are expected next week.

The following week looks dry as well with periods of cooling and warming and breeze.  The Climate Forecast System shows winter showing up the last two weeks of November. The other inter seasonal guidance available to me, the European model, I will share later tomorrow Tuesday or Wednesday AM.

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………:-)

 

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The last weekend of October finishes off on a warm Saturday then a windy and cooler Sunday…..Cooling will continue into Tuesday with highs some 20 degrees cooler Tuesday as compared to today Saturday. Some moderation in temps will occur Thursday into Saturday then turning breezy again the following Sunday with again more cooling. This outlook expresses the possibility of an inside slider, dropping into the Great Basin.   As far as precip goes….nothing in sight of significance. Only Precip is going to be what Mammoth Mt can deliver in the Dweeb’s Long Range week two outlook.

Note; I will have EPS ECMWF snowfall update next Tuesday. (45 day outlook)  PS. so far it has not done all that well….

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………….:-)