Another cold spring storm to add to record May snowfall…..blocking pattern to break down next week…..

Monday AM May 27th

Chilly!

Mammoth Mt reported 3 inches of new.  Not nearly what was forecasted but fresh powder….

25 degrees early this AM.  Yesterday’s high 35.  30 degrees below normal.

Were deep in the solar minimum…

The weather this week is highlighted by the break down of the blocking pattern over NW territories and Eastern AK.  That should result in warmer temps by weeks end and next week.

However…..Upper long wave Trof will stay over the west this week with showers and thunder just about everyday…..

 

  • Temperatures will gradually rise each day this week….depending upon cloud cover.

 

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There is really two parts to this whole pattern that worth mentioning.  Of course the pattern highlighted by high latitude blocking over the northwest territories of Canada that is forcing the long way Trof quasi stationary over the far west. This blocking along with negative AO has been with us for a good part of the winter.  It is still affecting the Conus today.

Additionally, you have the high angle of mid July like sun that plays heavenly upon the convective process.  Do not be surprised if you hear about cold core funnels Sunday over parts of CA and Nevada, as the cold pool from this system is associated with 1000-500mb 540 DM thickness pool approaching the SFO early Sunday AM. Very unstable by the afternoon.

Will look at the lifteds tomorrow AM.

 

TOML.  Stands to pick up 2 to 4 inches at the Village and 4 to 8 on Mammoth mt by Monday AM.MORE LATER….

 

Sunday AM

qpf has been bumped up with some 6 to 10 inches possible on Mammoth Mt.  3 to 5 in town by Monday AM. It will be a Chilly day today in town with highs in the 30s. Lows in the low 20s.

Extended models are showing a remarkable turn around in the week two outlook with much above normal temps developing during the latter part of the first week of June into the 2nd week of June. This would create a whole new set of  problems with runoff,  as highs would climb into the 80s in Mammoth during the week two period.

 

stay tuned…….

 

Another Cold Storm headed for Mammoth Saturday night into Sunday with well below normal temperatures…..Weather to remain cold next week with additional snowfall…..

Mammoth Locals enjoyed a chilly dry Friday with winter ski and board conditions on 12 to 18 inches of fresh powder.  The mountain is open for skiing and boarding from 7:00AM to 2:00PM daily.

The next weather system has another smaller subtropical connection that will allow for another 6 to 12 inches of snowfall on Mammoth Mt, Saturday night through Sunday.  For those skiing and boarding Sunday, expect cold, winter like conditions on Mammoth Mt, so plan according.  The QPF forecast updated for California Rivers Forecast center suggests up to an inch and a quarter of precip just west of the Mammoth Crest.  Some 3 to 5 inches of snowfall is possible at the Village at Mammoth between Saturday night and Sunday night.  The series of cold storms innated by the MJO over the El Nino Base state earlier in the week is thought to be at least, partially responsible for the unusually cold unsettled weather for mid May. The Cold unsettled weather is likely to continue through mid week…..and possibly beyond…..

The first half of the new week looks to be cold, breezy and blustery. Snow showers are possible….Especially mid week….

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………:-)

 

 

A Series of Strong Springs storms will bring wind…Cold and Snow to the high country….High temperatures Thursday will be more early March like with some moderation upwards into the weekend…..

Wednesday AM Update:

The QPF has been grossly increased for this first storm as a powerful for May, Atmospheric River slams into the Southern Sierra. Here are the point forecasts for snowfall for the Mammoth Lakes area from the NWS, through Friday AM

Mammoth Mt:     Tonight – 5 to 9 inches; Thursday –  6 to 10 inches; Thursday Night – 2 to 4 inches.  So about 2 feet over the upper mountain by Friday AM.

Village at Mammoth   Tonight  1/2 to and inch; Thursday – 3 to 7 inches; Thursday Night – 1 to 2 inches, Friday AM  1/2 inch

 

As mentioned in the discussion below, The combination of the El Nino Base State and the strong MJO has created constructive interference, producing a massive amount of PWAT into the tropics, part of which has been picked up by the short wave train across the Eastern Pacific and into California.

 

Saturday nights storm will not have the rich source of PWAT that tonight’s storm has, so it will not be as wet.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………..:-)

 

 

 

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What is particularly interesting about the developing pattern beginning Wednesday is the “amount of moisture highlighted in the PWAT parameter” in both EC and GFS, for a May Storm. This is quite unusual, but not exceptional. Strong winds will develop ahead of the front, that will be moving through our area Thursday morning. High temps will cool to the low 40s on Thursday. Lows in the teens and twenties Friday AM. About a foot of fresh snow is possible over the upper elevations of Mammoth Mt by Friday AM.

Another storm with an equally impressive upper jet will head into California later in the day Saturday, bringing more snow and rain, beginning later Saturday afternoon into early next week.  Although this system does not have the rich PWAT (precipitable water) indicated in the models like the Thursday storm, it appears to be a a storm that is more protracted in duration as the storm sort of stalls out over California next week. So precipitation is likely to become more convective in nature toward the middle of next week. I will have a better handle on next week’s storm by Sunday.  At this time, Saturday morning and  afternoon look to be the best time for outdoor activities this weekend, although it will become increasingly breezy in the afternoon. The high temperatures forecast for Saturday is 58 degrees in Mammoth Lakes.

Comments from the CPC:

  1. The MJO is now in phases 8/1 and is constructively interfering with El Nino.
  2. Constructive interference between the MJO and El Niño resulted in a coherent pattern spatially with large anomalies.
  3. El Nino continues to elevate the chances of above-average rainfall across the equatorial Pacific, while the MJO strongly favors above-average rainfall across parts of the East Pacific, Central America, and northern South America through at least late May.
  4. The above-average precipitation favored for the western U.S. is related to a highly amplified upper-level trough and an influx of subtropical moisture.

 

 

Dr. Howard and the Dweebs………………………:-)