Subtropical Moisture continues for flow over the region with a wave moving in Wednesday Night….A few inches of snow is possible over the much higher elevations….Another wave will move over the area Friday/Night…this will be a bit colder system with more light snowfall….Best storm on the horizon maybe next Tuesday and Wednesday….

Lots of old-time locals often times remind us that some of the biggest winters can start from very dry falls. History tells us that big winters can start as late as January or February!  So keep the faith and the shovels handy!

Todays weather guidance still has some light upper elevation snowfall for Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This is followed by another marginally wetter system for Friday into Saturday AM.  That may give the upper mountain up to 6 inches according to the latest CRFC forecast. There is a more significant storm according to the European model and its ensembles for Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. If the Euro is correct on its solution, then were off to the races!  The GFS is not as wet as it keeps it further to the north.

More Later………………….:-)

 

Dr. Howard and the Dweebs………………….:-)

Considerable High Cloudiness will ring in the New Year…..Upper Ridge will weaken some what this new week as pattern goes into transition ….Mainly Light Precipitation to occur through early Friday….

New Years day….12:15PM

 

Happy New Year everyone….   Hope its a good one….

 

The 12Z European Ensemble forecast model was still running with the Deterministic run still showing a pattern change in the offering. QPF continues to be scaled back and that means in general that these storms are weakening as they come in, due to the west coast ridge.  Light snowfall is still expected beginning Wednesday at elevations mainly above  8000 to 9000 feet. This does not appear to be a plowable storm for residential driveways for the vast majority of town.  As per this mornings CA Rivers Forecast Center, The Dweebs are not expecting much more than a few inches from this system, even over the higher elevations.  Looking at the 5 day means on the last ensemble run, the mean ridge position over the Central Pacific is between 150E and the dateline. This is not good….

500MB heights fall over time but remain higher than normal.  As mentioned earlier, the European model which is usually better at distance is showing a colder system for about the middle of next week with the chance of another following.  These storms will most likely weaken as they come in. However, they may provide some badly needed snowfall along with temporally colder temperatures.

Later in the week 2 period the new 12Z Jan 1, ECMWF Ensemble which has just finished running,  shows amplification of the Central Pacific ridge between 150E and the dateline. If this model ensembles verify’s, this in turn will ridge us back up again………

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………….:-)

 

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

I think that on an interseasonal scale of time, this is got to be one of the strongest and persistent Hemispheric Meridional Upper Flow patterns I can remember for a long time. The fact that the midwest and east is setting low temperature records are all part of this pattern, that is similar to the winter of 1917-18 I have read.  I am sure that the -QBO combined with La Nina has something to do with it. All models have done poorly with forecasts of both timing and details of guidance in their week two forecasts.  One only has to look at the non-details of the 5 day ensemble means of the ECMWF to see that a major wet pattern is not in the cards at this time. And…it is possible that we may be transiting to a pattern of one that is marginally wet before we go dry again.  We’ll see how the next 6 to 10 days develop in the week 2+ guidance.

On the bright side, it does look like that we may get one decent colder storm the following week, the week beginning the 8th. That may be enough to greatly improve our spirits!  The forecast for this upcoming week is one of unsettled weather with the chance of light precipitation beginning anytime mid-week (Wed) into the following week. The snow level along with the freezing level will remain fairly high, between (snow level) 8K and 9K. Based upon this mornings CRFC, the guidance suggests about 1/2 inch of water eq over Yosemite through Friday AM.  I will update later New Years Day Morning. However, that does not cover a more significant system later in the weekend or early the following week. Remember, the details are very poor because of both pattern transition and the mean ridge position over the far west. The upper flow mid-week is southerly, so orographics will not be a major player in the beginning of this pattern change.

 

PS I am still watching the MJO to see how strong it gets and how far east it gets…  That can make a big difference on how the pattern evolves…

 

 

 

 

 

More Later…………………….:-)

Fair Weather Ridge to Hold through year end with mild temperatures for the High Country…..As advertized for the past week, a welcomed major change in the pattern will take place week two as the MJO strengthens over the Indian Ocean…..

Dec 30 10:30AM

A Record High temperature was recorded at the Mammoth Ranger Station Friday with a high of 63 degrees. This is the warmest day since 2000 when the previous high was 57.  A 6 degree change in the high this time of the year is quite exceptional….

Our west coast ridge is still entrenched through New Years day. However, a welcomed pattern change will unfold this Wednesday with the beginning of a wet pattern that is likely to continue into the following Monday.   The first two systems are pretty warm with the snow level at or above 8000 feet. Later in the week, there will be a colder system that will bring snow into the Town of Mammoth.

On a different note, there is a very strange pattern of Sea Surface temperatures across the pacific over the mId latitudes.  Here is a link to have a look.  The waters are anomalously cold.

SEE:  http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_daily.php?plot=ssa&inv=0&t=cur

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

It was a mild night last night in the high country with over night lows in the low 30s at the Village at Mammoth. Our west coast ridge will remain entrenched through the New Year, continuing the mild weather trend in town with daytime highs in the 50s and night-time lows in the upper 20 and 30s.  Excluding the highest elevations winds will be light.

As advertised in past discussions, there is a very good chance that a trend of strengthening tropical forcing over the Indian Ocean (VIA-MJO) expected over the next several days will set into motion a change in the mid latitude hemispheric pattern. This change will bring precipitation back into the west coast and California as early as next Wednesday, but more likely the following week. This change will allow the big Eastern Trough or a portion of it to move out over the Atlantic, thereby opening up the wave length and weakening our west coast ridge. This would allow stormy weather to return to California.

 

More later on this developing pattern change……

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………….:-)