Upper Trof off the west coast will weaken by weeks end and allow temperatures to rise next week with lighter afternoon winds…..Much warmer temperatures in our future the week following July 4th……Monsoon weather may accompany WX pattern between the 8th and 15th of July….

The quasi permanent upper Trof off the west coast is showing signs of weakening and disappearing the week following July 4th.   High pressure building over Alaska -(Negative EPO) will begin to stretch the upper trof more west-east this Sunday into next week allowing height rises over the far west (Warmer Temperatures) . This will bring a warm up for our region with highs in the 70s.  Both GFS and ECMWF have strong height rises resuming from south to north over CA the week following July 4th. Although the European model is slower to get rid of the trof through the 4th of July, both are in agreement in beginning the first period of 80s in Mammoth afterwords …..as early as the 7th of July.  Isolated thunderstorm action may begin of the summertime verity about the weekend of the 6th, with atmospheric modification and an increase in afternoon convection, the following week.

 

I will fine tune these dates early next week.   In the meantime, dry SW flow continues and that means dry dry dry….but sensibly warmer this Sunday and Monday.  Low  to mid 70s….

 

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………….:-)

Warmer Days ahead as high pressure builds strongly into California, highs in Mammoth mid to upper 70s by mid week…..upper ridge shifts east Wednesday as heat related thunderstorms develop here and there…it will be a bit cooler into the following weekend..

Looks like the idea of winter weather going more directly into a Summer is becoming more of a reality in the weather charts.  Periods of strong heights rises show up in several periods weeks one and two. It looks to be a mix of sunshine… some periods of afternoon thunder as periodic weak trofs come through the mean ridge position. Temperatures will be mostly in the 70s with 30 and 40s at night….Can’t rule out a few 80s.

Some long range charts show that around the Summer Solstice, some under cutting of the westerlies may affect our areas weather.   This is long way off at this time but worth mentioning as some times around the Solstice we get some precipitation in June.

The Dweebs are off on vacation……Caio

 

 

Showers and thunder will begin to diminish Monday as high pressure builds over the region….Temperatures will climb well above normal by midweek….. Breezy weather with cooler temps to return by Friday

As the upper low moves out of Southern California, expect diminishing chances of showers and thunder Monday through Tuesday with Wednesday’s weather the nicest since late last summer….. highs will be in the low 70s.    Winds will come up as early as Thursday and may continue at least moderate into Friday, as a vigerious trof traverses through the pacific NW. There is a big difference in how the models Handel the Friday trof. The euro is much stronger, deeper and cooler than the American models. So this will have to be worked out next week.

The EPO does go negative again late next week and so that may favor the euros stronger solution. The word is…. get all the warmth you can Tuesday and Wednesday as the weather may turn unsettled again by Thursday/Friday. There will be improvement in the weather later Saturday into the following Monday, a full week away.

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…….:-)