Storm Door Opening first time since last Spring as Moderate Precipitation Producer Approaches….Snowfall expected later Wednesday into Thanksgiving day…..Then a windy system with unsettled weather expected Friday/Ngt…..New storm expected by Mid Week……..

Sunday 1130am…

 

The Dweebs are traveling today….will update Monday morning. However, get ready for a massive storm midweek. Three feet + over crest.

The week 2 forecast looks potentionally omanious as well…..MJO is strengthening in phase space 8 into 1 late this week and next, leading to The potential for a strong negative phase EPO week two, then strong AR potential for west coast.

 

 

 

12:50 PM Wednesday

FYI

The Euro has come in wetter late this morning for Friday for our area. It still shows most of the moisture/precip on the west side. However, I am beginning to think that the upper mountain may pick up another 5 to 10 inches of sierra cement Friday/Night. There will still be a lot of shadowing for points east of the crest and so the QPF will fall off pretty quickly. The EC QPF for the town is between .25 to .40 now. But the snow level will rise to 7500.  It certainly possible that elevations from the Village at Mammoth to Canyon could get 3 to 5 inches of wet snow Friday and Saturday. Of note…the hose is a very wide one. What is strange is that the upper polar jet is NW/SE. over OR and the subtropical jet is leaving Southern CA… Weird!!! What’s generating all the PW?  Typically, we do not get this kind of PWAT from a NW upper flow. The Atmos  must be doing something else at lower levels? Anyway, with the bulk of precip is still on the west side. It will be very windy along Highway 395 Friday afternoon. Might be difficult to get flights in and out?  There may be some wind related road closures as well for high profiles Vehicles, due to the related gradient downsloping from the precip on the west side.  Again it will be interesting to see how this all plays out.

 Longer range:   

The Euro is down playing a major AR for next week with the Tuesday system, so although it shows an AR,  it is nothing unusual, again according to the ECMWF today. The GFS?? Its gone bonkers….Death and Destruction.  To embellish…you will be able to smell   Bananasbreadfruitscoconutsmangoespineapples, wild apples, star fruits, papayaguavasour sop, you name it if it verifies.  I do not believe it at this time so just enjoy the dream.  🙂

If the Euro starts to sing the same tune….Northern Californians may need an ARC by the following weekend.  Again, this is one operational run, I do not believe it…

One thing worth mentioning that supports the GFS;  “The MJO”   http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ncpe.shtml

In the meantime have a nice holiday!

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Short term models continue the timing with Tuesday nights runs in bringing a moderate snow storm to the Sierra Wednesday night into Thursday AM.  The Town of Mammoth is expecting up to a foot of snow while the upper mountain 18 inches+.  Daytime highs will cool to the 30s in the Town of Mammoth Thanksgiving day with 40s expected over the holiday weekend. In the storms wake is another system that will bring much more wind to our area Friday into Friday night. The Upper Jet favors the Northern Sierra most, and so a lot of the precipitation will not make it very far over the Sierra Crest. Because of this feature, snowfall amounts are going to be very difficult to estimate. Upper elevations may pick up a few inches to 1/2 foot while the Town of Mammoth may not see anymore than snow or rain showers. The warm air advection pattern associated with this system will force snow levels to rise up to 7500 feet by later in the day Friday then down over night. Overall, this is a system that Colloquially will bring 6 feet of wind and maybe a few inches of snow…Maybe not….The main focus of the weather system will be the west side and especially the northern sierra west side where up to 3 to 4 inches of rain may fall in a few areas.  The remainder of the weekend looks dry beginning Saturday afternoon into Monday.

Outlook:

Having a glimpse of mothers natures face through the American models, she definitely has that twinkle in her eyes for later next week. .  However, at time, it is too far out to go to the bank on it…..Will update Monday morning……

Happy Thanksgiving to all from Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………..:-)

Winter Storm Warning Hoisted for Mono County…..Pattern Change over Eastern Pacific continues with a few more nice days ahead before 1st Winter Storm arrives later Wednesday…..Moderate amounts of Snowfall Expected Wednesday night through Thursday…..Some light wet snow will follow Friday….with some Snow Showers possible Saturday……Sunday Looks Fair…..

4:00PM  Update

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=CAZ073&warncounty=CAC051&firewxzone=CAZ273&local_place1=13%20Miles%20E%20Lee%20Vining%20CA&product1=Winter+Storm+Warning&lat=37.939&lon=-118.887

Storm has slowed a bit with WSW now set for 6:00PM through 6:00AM Thursday

Via NWS; Moderate to occasionally heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 14 inches above 7000 feet, highest west of
Highway 395. Up to 4 inches is possible between 6000 and 7000 feet, with little or no snow below 6000 feet.

Mammoth Crest 18 inches+

Still looking a small storm with light snowfall and windy conditions Friday/night

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11/20/2018

Quick update:

No changes to the forecast. Timing still looks good. See the NWS Winter Storm Watch in the hyper-link below. The forecasted storm totals show 4 to 8 inches in the Town of Mammoth with up to a foot near the Village and Canyon Lodge.  Amounts over the Upper Mountain by Thanksgiving Day may equal 18 inches or more.  The next weather system for Friday Through Saturday morning favors the Northern Sierra. It is a windier storm with light amounts of snowfall expected over Mammoth Mt.  (Up to 5 inches) 1 to 3 inches in town. The snow level will rise through the storm until Late Friday night when the freezing level falls briefly then rises again between Saturday afternoon and Sunday. This is a storm with warm air advection. Not your typical cold front. Highlights are wind and light precip.

The Dweebs are watching the next WX system for near the end of the month. There may “Possibly” be an AR with that system. Stay Tuned!!!! The American operational 12Z GFS had an 180 knot westerly Jet at 250MB with its axis W/E across Northern Central California.  I am not jumping on this one yet as the ECMWF is not in agreement at this time. This mornings GFS model run would certainly be WINDY,  Wednesday afternoon the 28th through Friday afternoon!!  If this model verified, this could be one of those Crowley Lake Wind Events.  Those that have lived there long term, know what I mean….  So again this “is not” a forecast…Just something to keep our eyes on!!

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………….:-)

 

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NOTE: From the Yosemite NPS;

Tioga and Glacier Point Roads will close at 6 pm on Tuesday, November 20.  Tioga and Glacier Point Roads will close at 6 pm on Tuesday, November 20. The Tioga and Glacier Point Roads will close to all vehicular traffic beginning at 6 pm on Tuesday, November 20, 2018 due to incoming winter weather. The roads will reopen as weather and road conditions permit. This is not necessarily a seasonal closure.

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By far the best weather system to begin the Winter Season here in the high country will move into Southern Mono County later Wednesday Afternoon with snow levels rising to 6500 as winds mix out valley inversions of cold air.  However, snowfall will begin earlier on the west side resulting in pass closures well before that time. For those that this is important to, be sure to check with Caltrans Tuesday before departing and remember that Caltrans may close the passes earlier than expected. I have had to make that long trip north on highway 49 to highway 50 after being disappointed by an early pass closer……:-(

Both today and tomorrow Tuesday will be fair days with variable high clouds and highs in the upper 40s. Winds will pick up over the upper elevations early Wednesday morning with increasing clouds and snowfall in the high country during the day Wednesday. The heavier snowfall is likely to begin after 6:00PM with moderate snowfall all night under good UVM. The first wave will be through about 5:00AM Turkey day with another UVM max around 10:00AM. So periods of moderate snowfall are likely through about 12:00PM Thursday. Lighter snowfall will continue the rest of the afternoon. There is another short wave on Friday that is not nearly as impressive as Wednesday nights storm. The snow level will rise with that system up to about 7500 feet. There is a small AR with it that will mainly affect the west side of the sierra and so the sierra crest may do much better than areas to its east. Nevertheless, some 2 to 6+ inches is possible with that system.  The thinking this morning is that the upper mountain is still in for about 18 to 24 inches by weeks end. The Town of Mammoth 6 to 10 inches. The Dweebs will update the QPF Wednesday AM when the HRRR 3K is out.

For the Travelers heading to the high country….There is likely to be Chain Controls at some point Wednesday night so plan accordingly. Sunday appears to be a good travel day on your return….. High temperatures in Mammoth for the holiday and weekend will range in the 30s and low 40s with lows in the teens and 20s.

Have a Great Thanksgiving holiday weekend!!!!

 

 

Although this weeks weather continues dry….Confidence is increasing that a pattern change next week will bring beneficial snows to the sierra and the beginnings to our winter snowpack

11:30AM Sat:

Both 12z EC and 12z GFS have about 2 feet painted over the Mammoth Crest by next Sunday AM the 25th. As mentioned below, the Friday system may have an AR connected with it.

 

SATURDAY MORNING:

Good Day Eastern Sierra! It’s a beauty!…Highs to day will be in the upper 50s with lows tonight in the 20s. Daytime high will cool to the 40s by Monday. With lows in the teens and 20s later in the week. The winds will be picking up next week and will become strong by Wednesday.

Discussion:

A closed upper high at 500MB was west of Washington State this morning with a weak belt of westerlies underneath to its south over Baja CA. We are in-between and that means little change in the weather this weekend. This weather pattern offers strong valley inversions and warm temps for this time of the year at resort levels. Daytime highs at 8000 feet will range in the low to mid 50s  Saturday and Sunday.

Next week the upper ridge builds NW to AK and the westerlies under cut with a long wave Trof setting up off the west coast. this will initiate a cooling trend and snowfall by Wednesday afternoon.  The Dweebs here have been forecasting this for over 2 weeks now. The first storm will arrive by  Wednesday afternoon and it looks like a moderate precipitation producer with over 6 inches in town and over a foot on Mammoth Mt….I will fine tune on Monday.   There are several other systems coming in through the holiday weekend. The GFS is painting some 2 feet over the crest by weeks end. The ECMWF is now dryer than that as one of the storms is omitted. So that is why the hesitation in the forecast at this time as we are too far out to pin down “amounts”, Either way, odds are very good that well see between 1 and 2 feet on the upper mountain by week’s end as the first system alone looks to bring 1 foot+ over the crest. the good news is that is it now coming in much more consolidated (less splitting)  in this mornings 12z run.

Additionally, The GFS has the Friday system with an Atmospheric River connected with it.  It looks warmer than the Wednesday night system but more moisture leaden….

 

The Dweeber…..:-)

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Friday AM Update:  GFS has come into line with the EURO as far as timing, however it is still not as moist as the EC through the end of next week.  Just to put an estimate on snowfall amounts, that I am sure will change by the time we get to Thanksgiving, it looks like 12 to 18 inches over the crest by the end of next week and about half of that in town above 8000 feet. This is looking like a moderate snowfall producer  (6-18 inches)

 

More later….Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………..:-)

 

Forecast remains on track.

Differences still remain in the global models whereby the European model is still a lot faster in getting the precip going than the GFS. In fact it is a day quicker today, whereby it develops precip early Thursday morning vs the GFS which is dry for our area until Friday morning. The 10 day precipitation QPF reflects this as well as the Euro deterministic, as it paints over 2 inches of H2O over the upper San Joaquin drainage while the GFS is half of that. However, there is another storm on the way that may get it there by the following day or so.  So by today standards time wise, this looks to be a good couple of storms for Mammoth Lakes bringing a healthy amount of snow by the end of the Thanksgiving weekend or just a day or so later.  At least for down here in Southern Mono County. I would not want to down play this storm at this time…

What is interesting is that the European, spins up the subtropical jet over Southern CA Thanksgiving day as it lifts it north from Baja. The upper jet becomes confluent with the polar jet over that 24 to 36 hour period. That is most likely where it is getting all the QPF it paints…

It always a bit scary to go out on a limb and call for a series of systems that will bring beneficial snowfall to the high country some two weeks out. Especially when we have been dry since last Spring.  The climate CFS, (climate forecast system) has been touting this change for 2 to 3 weeks now and I have to say that as of this time, they have done a marvelous or even miraculous job! To get to this point time wise with a forecast some 2 weeks ago to week’s 1-2 is nothing short of amazing.  Now it is true that we are not there yet and we still have about a week to go. Certainly, stranger thing’s have happened, but it sure does look good for a couple of storms that would bring “at least” moderate snowfall by the end of that holiday weekend and just beyond from this point in time to Mammoth Mt.

The forecast two weeks ago was a combination of the CFS and “pattern recognition” without any global numerical guidance. With this method, you can not predict how much snow you will get, or when it will storm. However, you get the opportunity for a pattern change that offers a better chance of storminess during the colder time of the year.  Looking at pattern recognition,  that fact that there was so much cold air over the mid west and the east that was not progressive, actually held the ridge over CA and off shore. Now that the cold air and upper toughing is moving out away from the CONUS, the ridge is starting to weaken. Sensibly, that is why were getting high cloudiness on and off for the remainder of this week.

 

As a note, during drought years when the east is buried in snow and cold, it’s often is times like this when this big cold trof moves out for just a week that we get a storm or two. However, during the dry years, this is often the only opportunity to get precipitation into the sierra.  It is worth mentioning that this year’s El Nino will be at work. It is still not known if this Modoki with be wet or dry. One thing in our favor is that anytime you have a decent El Nino, it activates the southern stream.  And….It is the southern stream that can flush out the cold air and even displace the PV or Hudson Bay low eastward enough to create the excessive wavelength that we on the west coast just love. Excessive wave length usually = weak west coast ridge.

 

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………….:-)