Nice Fresh Air Morning as southerly flow keeping most smoke to our north this morning….Upper flow starting to back from the Southwest, So expect that to change…ESE flow to arrive by Tuesday…..

Winds continue to diminish this late morning over the ridges from the south. Again, as in the header…..This has kept much of the smoke to our north and thus smoke from fires are effecting Alpine County and Northern Mono the most…..  Last few hours upper flow is becoming southwest again. The Dweebs expect smoke from fires to return to the Town of Mammoth this afternoon….

 

Although Monday looks Smokey…A change in the pattern as the upper ridge builds into California this week will usher in an ESE flow….that will likely help in keeping smoke from fires to our west and north of our area mid-week….Only to return possibly by the following weekend. It looks quite warm in the ESE flow with a chance of Thunderstorms returning by next weekend.

 

The Dweeber…….:-)

Critical “fire weather” set up today Saturday as Rare for Summer upper jet of 100 knots is forecast to move from Northern CA over the Sierra Today…..

From NWS RNO AFD:

A rare (for summer), strong jet streak with wind speeds in excess of 100 kts, is forecast to move from Northern California over the Sierra and Northern Nevada today.

This will create a 4-8 hour period of dangerous fire weather conditions with widespread wind gusts of 35-45 mph and up to 65 mph along the ridges. These winds combined with relative humidities of 5-15% will create a
Particularly Dangerous Situation so PDS Red Flag Warning are in effect today.

While the Red Flag conditions the last few days have been marginal, today will not. The conditions expected today are a rare event, on the order of once a summer.

If your recreation plans are going to be on the water, be prepared for much bigger waves than usual this afternoon.

From Fire Weather (WSFO RENO):

FIRE WEATHER…

Today is the day to watch out for with very strong winds and low humidity making for a Particularly Dangerous Situation and Red Flag Warnings in effect for the entire region. Wind gusts this afternoon are expected to reach 35-45 mph with wind prone
locations and ridge tops seeing even stronger winds. The timing of the strongest winds will be from approximately noon through 9 pm. With relative humidity in the 5-15% range, the combination of wind and low humidity could cause any ongoing fires to experience
a large increase in fire activity that could break containment lines. If any new fires were to start, they would likely grow and spread extremely rapidly. Air support operations could be heavily impacted by winds as well. Any personnel working on or near
existing or new fires would be in danger. This is one of those rare events that typically only occurs maybe once a summer.

Conditions improve Sunday with lighter winds that will be around typical afternoon speeds (peak gusts 18-30 mph along the Sierra Front). Humidity really doesn`t change with dry conditions continuing, however the slightly lighter winds will at least help.
Winds decrease further through early next week with lighter than average afternoon breezes expected. Temperatures do cool this weekend which should allow for improved recoveries overnight for Sierra valleys at least. Temperatures turn hot again by Tuesday
and Wednesday with triple digit heat in the forecast. -Dawn

 

Updating…………………

 

 

A slow cooling trend is expected into the weekend with some thunder through Wednesday……It will be breezy or windy and cooler this weekend….Very warm again next week….

Thursday PM:

Red Flag Warning Hoisted Today For Mono County for Saturday:

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=CAZ073&warncounty=CAC051&firewxzone=CAZ273&local_place1=13%20Miles%20E%20Lee%20Vining%20CA&product1=Red+Flag+Warning&lat=37.939&lon=-118.887

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Wednesday PM Update:

Much better air quality in Mammoth today. Last night was good too! Not counting on it every day but very good today! The weekend outlook looks breezy beginning Thursday afternoon into Friday with gusts continuing through the weekend….15 to 30mph. Highs will cool to the mid 70s with lows mostly in the 40s. It is a dry 5 day outlook.

Looked at the Forecast Models from today’s 12Z runs and WOW!!   Mother nature may be giving us a bit of a break in the heat throughout Eastern CA this weekend as compared to the warm temps of the past week.  But the maps are Awesome again in building the big subtropical continental high right back into the Great Basin and eventually California between Tuesday and the following weekend. This time the core of the max upper heights is more north, over north central Ca and Western NV by the weekend.  With a little bit of luck it will push enough moisture in here before it really sets up. So we cloud up limiting the heat.  When is this going to happen? The European waists no time as it starts building the upper high into CA beginning Monday afternoon. By Tuesday PM it is set up over the Desert SW and California. By the following Friday evening, guidance suggest very close to 600DM at 500MB over or near Mammoth Lakes. That weekend could be scorching without 700MB Monsoon Moisture. Let hope there is some.  I guess even more important point is, hope the fires are mostly out!

 

Dr Howard and the DWEEBS……………..:-)

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A slow cooling trend and an increase in wind will provide some relief from the heat and unhealthy air quality through Thursday. Thunderstorms are possible the next couple days with best chances over Southern Mono County. With the winds backing from the Southwest, the worst smoke from the Lions Fire;  now only 80% contained and Ferguson fire, 33% contained should remain to our north the next couple of day. However we will still have haze and smoke.  By Friday, the well advertised trough will descend from the Gulf of AK.  The flow will increase from the west and that may be concerning. At the moment,  Saturday is expected to be the most windy. There are model differences on how strong the winds will get so stay tuned….The Dweebs should have better handle on the wind by late afternoon Wednesday or Thursday AM.  It will either be quite breezy or windy. Either way, the air-mass moving in for the weekend and early next week is cooler, very dry for summer….leading to potential for critical fire weather conditions. Winds in the non-wind protected areas would mean local gusts 30 to 40 MPH if the forecast becomes windy, If Breezy, only 15 to 30 MPH.  High temperatures will cool to the mid 70s this weekend with lows possible in the 40s.

 

For those interested in some good AIr Quality Links for our area….They are below:

  1. AirNow       https://airnow.gov/index.cfm?action=airnow.local_city&zipcode=93546&submit=Go
  2. Mammoth Lakes Tabular Data     https://www.gbuapcd.org/cgi-bin/tabularViewer?siteName=AirVision/Mammoth%20Lakes
  3. Mammoth Lakes PM 2.5 Count    https://tools.airfire.org/monitoring/v4/#!/simple?monitorid=lon_.118.961_lat_37.647_usfs.1069&centerlat=37.6795&centerlon=-118.9263&zoom=10&category=PM2.5_nowcastf
  4. Smoke Forecasts  (use near surface smoke)     https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRRsmoke/

How Smoke From Fires Can Effect Your Health:  AirNow

https://www.airnow.gov/index.cfm?action=smoke.index

Air Quality Guide for Particle Pollution:

https://www.airnow.gov/index.cfm?action=pubs.aqguidepart