Afternoon Thunderstorms Rattle the Eastern Sierra through Thursday then drier weather into the weekend with a cooling trend….Say good by this week to the Four Corners High as Summer weather shifts into Fall….But Summer weather may return again by Mid-Month!

What remains of the Summertime four corners high will dissipate over the next few days as late summer troughs from the Gulf of AK head to the west coast. The transitory short waves will bring cooler air to our region and even the Desert SW.  This in turn breaks up the upper high in that region and will likely bring an end to the Monsoon Season by this weekend. This transition from Summer weather to Fall weather usually happens in September. Meteorological Fall was September 1st, contrary to astronomical fall which occurs about the 21st.

In the meantime, southerly flow will bring moisture and thunderstorms through Thursday; a passing Trof Thursday night will give way to a drier air mass. The next trof for Saturday/Sunday will bring quite breezy weather Saturday afternoon and night followed by cooler temperatures Sunday into Next week.  Thickness falls suggest that some frost may occur both Sunday and Monday mornings in some of the typically coolest valleys, with Mammoth just getting down possibly to the mid to upper 30s. Daytime highs will move from the mid 70s to the mid to upper 60s by Sunday and Monday.  BTW;  high temps in the low 70s is typical for Mammoth Lakes this time of the year.   Lows in the 40s.

 

The extended outlook is dry with breezy weather early next week then a warm up expected the 2nd half of next week with well above normal temperatures beginning next weekend into Week 2.   September 15th on…..

The ECMWF is bringing subtropical moisture into our region week 2 so thunderstorms may return again, the following week.  (15th-21st)

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………….:-)

 

Late Summer Heat Wave to give to a few thunderstorms Wednesday then a little cooler over the holiday weekend…..A dry weekend is expected with above normal temperatures….

Some light North East Flow developed early this morning bringing some light smoke from the Spring Fire into Mammoth. That pattern is not likely to occur Wednesday with an increase of westerly flow. Thunderstorm action should it occur, would be in the late morning for Mammoth, (Just a slight chance) as westerly afternoon winds push storms off to the east of highway 395.   By Wednesday night, a weak Trof of low pressure pushes through to the north of us and flushes moisture out to the east. This will insure sunny, smoke free skies!

Expect a stronger Zephyr Thursday afternoon….

High temps will pull back to the upper 70s which is still above normal for this time of the year.  The extended outlook keeps above normal temperatures in our forecast for the next 6 to 10 days.  It appears that we will get more of the summer heat that was so late to start this year for the next few weeks….

Normal highs in Mammoth this time of the year are in the low 70s with lows in the 40s.   High temperatures have been running in the upper 70s to mid 80s the past 5 days.  Tuesday the 27th, the high temperature was 83 degrees with a low of 53.  On Monday the high was the warmest of the year at 84 degrees. Pretty much what you would expect in mid July.

 

According to climo….There is likely to he a cool trof around the 3rd week of September, but at the moment, enjoy all the warmth and sunshine!!

 

Happy Labor Day weekend!

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………….:-)

Extended Models Suggest that the warmest temperatures of the summer may still lie ahead…..Some Seasonal wind possible by end of next week….

Some of the finest weather in the eastern sierra in years, continues this weekend with daytime highs in the mid 70s and lows at the night in the 50s.  Afternoon zephyr winds have been typical, in the 10 to 20 MPH range, with late afternoon breezes up to 25 MPH at times today Saturday, and tomorrow Sunday expected….  Smoke from a few lighting caused fires to the NNE has thus far been minimal in Mammoth, due to periodic weak trofing to the west and its resulting WSW flow aloft.  The upper air pattern should continue to be favorable for clean air conditions at least through Monday this upcoming week.  Beyond that, the continental high will build back again by mid week, increasing our temperatures and bringing a return of some light morning easterly flow. This will do two things. 1.  We will experiences our highest temperatures so far this Summer by Wednesday. 2. If fires continue to burn to the NNE, conditions may turn hazy again by mid-week, however  mainly during the morning hours, until the afternoon Zephyr winds kicks in.   The mid to late Summer heat wave will last through Friday. Thereafter, it all depends upon which global model you prefer.  The European Model develops light SE flow by Saturday or Sunday.  So some seasonal wind/Monsoon for thunderstorms, while the GFS develops some light SW flow again…..Which would be dry. Either way, temperatures will remain warm here in the high country….

PS. The Euro is the Air Sea coupled model….Would it not be ironic for a summer that was relatively dry to turn wet the last four days of the month of August?…..Labor Day weekend. 😉

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………….:-)