Cooler weather expected by the weekend with some light snowfall possible……Series of Closed Lows to slowly take aim on California next week…..Periods of moderate precipitation possible….

3-6-20

TGIF

Focus now  will be the big rain maker getting set up for Southern CA.  There is a rich source tropical plume just north of the dateline associated with the low frequency base state that has connection east, then North Eastward to Northern Baja and Southern CA. next week.   A short wave, in back of the wave that will bring Mammoth some light snowfall Saturday, is currently moving ESE through the G of AK and will drop south and spin up over the next several days as it makes its way toward Southern CA early next week. The Closed nature of the system makes it more difficult to time as compared to the open wave across the pacific.  Our friend the EC ensembles puts it through Southern CA next Wednesday.  As a result, the best forcing will be Monday and Tuesday as a rich tap of tropical moisture combines with both dynamic lift as well as Orographics.  The coastal sections of So-Cal seem to have the best combo, especially areas like Malibu, east and south. This should be a good rain maker from Southern CA east…..

Mammoth Mt;

 

Preliminary est….2 to 5 inches over the crest Saturday. and another 12 to 15 inches Monday-Wednesday.  Dry Thursday.  Highs today fFriday in the low 50s cooling to the 40s on Saturday and low 40s Sunday. Expect 40s for high in town early next week.  This is not considered a cold storm. Snow level will rise to around 6000-6500 feet. It will be breezy this afternoon through Saturday night. Windy over the crest….

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Currently, Mammoth Lakes is under high pressure ridging, We can expect above normal high temperatures through Friday with low to mid 50s. There after, a “long wave trof” will set up over the Eastern Pacific allowing slow moving closed lows to creep on shore. The period Monday through Wednesday next week could bring fresh snowfall to Mammoth Mt. Although the exact trajectory of this system is Unknown at this time. The effects of the next lifting mechanism to boot it in will determine who gets the lion share.  There is the potential of moderate snowfall on Mammoth Mt next week. Moderate  (6-18 inches)  The long range outlooks from both the CFC and CPC show the potential for a wetter March, especially for Southern CA. The CPC has indicated that an area of enhanced convection over the tropics near the Dateline may supply atmospheric river moisture in the weeks to come for Southern CA.

 

CPC: 

Forecast models looking a bit better with the next weather system keeping the Trof open moving South….Light to moderate snowfall amounts looking more likely now….

The Euro model has been pretty consistent in keeping the next weather system, open as it move south, down the CA coast, at least through Central CA.  The American models have been leaning that same way over the past 24 hours.   So as weather folks say, the trend is our friend….

Quantitative precipitation forecasts have been boosting snowfall amounts recently over the weekend. Amounts in town may be 2 to 4 inches with between 4 and 8 inches over the upper elevations…. The timing is later Saturday afternoon through Sunday.  The Dweebs still expect March it be a much better month for Snowfall in the high country than Jan and Feb.   Mid Month looks especially good as the AO goes briefly negative.

The Dweebs will give an update on the QPF Friday for a closer look at snowfall estimates.

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………….:-)

Closed low now formed will drop SSE today then move into Southern CA Saturday…..Light snowfall expected….Mainly Saturday for Mono County…..This will be followed by another dry week…..

February 25th

Of Public interest;

The driest winters with less than 225 inches

  1. 2007   222 inches
  2. 1990   214
  3. 1977   197.5 inches
  4. 1987   195.8
  5. 2015   176
  6. 1977    94

Winter of 2020 so far 138 with March, April and May to go.

What’s different between most of these winters and the winter of 2020?

  1. We have arguably the best snow making system in the Sierra
  2. We have the best snow grooming system in place in the country!

 

Next weather system Saturday night and Sunday…..

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February 23rd 2:30PM

Well folks we got a true dusting with .01 inches of precip! Wow!    The rest of this week up to Saturday will be dry as well, with a slight chance of some snowfall next Sunday……Meteorological Winter will go out like a Bambi. Keep your fingers crossed about March. We could still get a few good weather systems next month, however, if the AO stays strongly positive, the chances of a Miracle March would be just that…….A Miracle!

 

The Weather Forecast this week shows that temperatures will warm some 10 and 15 degrees above normal by Wednesday. High temps will climb to the mid 50s by Wednesday; lows between 25 and 30.  Expect lots of high clouds the second half of the week. It will be dry through Saturday.

 

(Blame it on the +AO)

It has been determined that the cause of this dry winter out west was primarily due to a very intense positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation, where-by record low pressure aloft set up over the Arctic, keeping much of the Arctic Air confined to the Arctic. This phase does not allow much Frigid Air to pour south, out over the North pacific in our case. For example, Fairbanks Alaska is having one of the coldest winters in decades.

In this phase of the Arctic Oscillation, the standard deviations from normal have been determined to be modern day historic!

With strong low pressure aloft, 500MB-1000MB thickness over the Arctic have lead to one of the coldest Arctic Winters in decades. This may have had an affect of increasing the Arctic Sea ice and hopefully giving the Polar Bears some kind of a break?

Over the next few days, more record +AO indices are expected.   

 

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Finally…a little light snowfall is expected for this Saturday.  Nothing major, but with a little luck, some 2 to 4 inches may fall on Mammoth Mt. The change in the forecast is due to a change in the track of this small cut off low pressure system, as it moves through Southern California a bit further north.   There is no cold air advection with this system for Mammoth. The precipitation will mainly be up-slope snow Saturday. Some 1 to 4 inches is expected for The Town of Mammoth and Mammoth Mt.  It will be dry and cool on Sunday. Highs will be in the low 40s in town Saturday with lows in the 20s….

The extended outlook shows a progressive pattern with the upper ridge off shore building into California, early to mid week for above normal temps by Wednesday. The next system that is expected to bring some light snowfall is expected to follow a similar track into Southern CA on the 4th of March…. However, we are expecting a change in the pattern over North America during that time.  So the weather outlook may change for the 1st week of March….

Of note, this ski season has brought 138 inches of snow at the Main Lodge. There have only been 3 winters historically in the past 50 years with under 200 inches by May 31st. That means that if we only get another 5 feet over the next 2.3 months, that would qualify for the 4th driest winter in the past 50 years….Is that likely?  No….As the odds based upon climatology are well against it….However, the odds are rapidly increasing that this will go down as one of the “drier than normal years” for the Central Sierra….

 

The Dweeber…………………….:-)