Southerly flow to provide more showers today and Thursday for Southern Mono County…A drying trend to begin later Friday with a dry and warm Saturday through Tuesday expected….

Although Mammoth Lakes did not pick up any showers on Tuesday, showers and thunderstorms developed from the north, to the east and southeast with ground reports indicating of over an inch of rain over the Rock Creek Lake area as reported by the owners of the resort. Other areas including Tioga, Bodie Hills, Doe Ridge, Mammoth AP and BISHOP AP, indicated light amounts of precipitation ranging from a trace to up to .12 of an inch.  For the next few days, showers and thunder storms are possible in these same areas.   Mammoth so far has been exempt from this precip as early afternoon zephyr winds have sheared and blown most of the cloudiness to the east.

 

Outlook;   The Rapid refresh model once again is keeping showers out of Mammoth Today. However, there is a Vort Center coming up from the south Thursday afternoon that might aid in providing showers and thunder further west, into Mammoth on Thursday. The Vort center is associated with the Rt Rear entry region of a 50 Knot jet at 250MB.

The weekend outlook is dry with only isolated activity Saturday and dry in all areas Sunday through Tuesday.  The continental upper high shifts west into Southern CA shunting monsoon moisture and upper dynamics south. It will be warm in Mammoth and hot in the deserts.  Highs in Mammoth 75 to 80, lows in the 50s…

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………:-)

Warmer Days ahead as Continental High strengthens over the Desert SW initiating Monsoon Pattern next week…..Although this is late this year…This completes the transition to Mid Summer Weather…..

Wednesday Evening the 17th.

The global models are making the change to a warmer pattern beginning this weekend and next week in Mammoth with a strengthening Continental Upper High, retrograding further west. Expect an increase of precipitable water early next week.  The Owens Valley will become more humid with a chance of thunderstorms beginning Tuesday.

The flow becomes southerly in both the EC and GFS early next week which is not the most favorable pattern for thunderstorms in Mammoth. Nevertheless, isolated showers and thunderstorm will develop as early as Sunday, especially areas along the Mono County convergence zone. Areal coverage will increase through mid week next week. Most favorable upper flow for Mammoth is Southeast flow.  So there will be an increase in convection, but mostly areas east, north and southeast of Mammoth Lakes.

Our best chances of Showers and Thunderstorms will develop this Tuesday into Wednesday in town. Should the models become more favorable with SE flow, later next week, the odds will increase for better wetting rains here.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………:-)

 

Slightly cooler weather ahead with stronger Zephyr expected into early next week…Another dry 7 days ahead….Monsoonal flow becomes more likely between the 21st and 27th of July.

Wednesday Evening the 17th.

The global models are making the change to a warmer pattern next week in Mammoth with a strengthening Continental Upper High, retrograding further west. Expect an increase of precipitable water early next week.  The Owens Valley will become more humid with a chance of thunderstorms beginning Tuesday.

The flow becomes southerly in both the EC and GFS early next week which is not the most favorable pattern for thunderstorms in Mammoth. Nevertheless, isolated showers and thunderstorm will develop as early as Sunday, especially areas along the Mono County convergence zone. Areal coverage will increase through mid week next week. Most favorable upper flow for Mammoth is Southeast flow.  So there will be an increase in convection, but mostly areas east, north and southeast of Mammoth Lakes.

So we will have a chance of Showers and Thunderstorms by mid Week. Should the models become more favorable with SE flow, later next week, the odds will increase for better wetting rains here.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………:-)

 

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

On Friday the Town of Mammoth experienced its warmest day of the year with a high of 77 degrees. Early morning lows were in the mid 50s Saturday AM.  Late afternoon isolated thunderstorms occurred over the more favorable Bodie Hills north west of Mono lake Friday afternoon. This is a common area for convergence type heat related thunderstorms that happens in July when the flow is light enough out of the west southwest, meeting the afternoon diurnal southerly flow coming up the Owens Valley and Eastern CA.

Convergence type thunderstorms and daily air-mass modification can produce some locally heavy rain in those areas, if dryer air from a stronger southwest flow does not develop soon enough. This year, plenty of episodes of SW flow seem to be the norm.  In fact stronger Southwest flow is Developing this weekend, so today Saturday should be the last day for isolated thunderstorms for this episode. One more note…these thunderstorms are not related to any monsoon pattern which is defined by the seasonal wind. (Synoptic scale SSE upper flow). The earliest opportunity for that pattern to develop will be week two according the the global models…..Or beginning about the 21st……

Expect the weather in Mammoth to remain dry for the next 5 to 7 days…..High temperatures will cool to the low to mid 70s by Sunday and Monday…….lows in the 40s. The Zephyr will strengthen with gusts to 35mph Sunday PM. Thereafter, a warming trend is expected the second half of next week…..

According to ECMWF and GFS models….Longer Range week 2 becomes more favorable for some southerly flow with possibly Southeasterly flow aloft at 500mb. Although the Monsoon has not developed over the west or even the desert SW to a significant degree….climatically, the last week of July is the most favorable time frame, so we are getting closer time-wise in Climo.

 

i will update on the progress of any Southerly flow or Southeasterly flow the middle of next week for the following week.

 

Dr howard and the Dweebs…………