Well Above Normal Temperatures have returned to the High Country with Breezy Weather expected Friday and Saturday….Will the Upper Ridge Rebuild Again Next Week for More Very Warm Weather?

Smoky conditions during the early evening hours last night dissipated this morning. Strong high pressure aloft will concentrate smoke over the fires then as Zephyr winds increase during the afternoon, they will carry some eastward Wednesday. So expect good air quality in the morning with poor air quality returning during the early to mid afternoon hours Wednesday.  Expect another very warm day today with highs in the mid 80s in Mammoth…..104 at the Bishop AP. Little change in temperatures are expected for Thursday. By Friday a Trof to our north will weaken the upper ridge and allow some cooling to move into our area with highs closer to 80. Gusty Winds may whip up local fires in the process. By Far…the worst air quality will be to the north of Mammoth Lakes today and Thursday. Areas Down Wind of the Donnell fire over the northern portion of Mono will have the worst air quality.

Outside of a few isolated TSRWS….it will remain warm breezy and dry Friday and Saturday afternoons…

Low pressure moving through the Pacific Northwest Friday will bring an enhanced Zephyr with west winds in the 25 to 30MPH range. The Trof which moves through the Pacific Northwest Friday will lift to the northeast on Saturday. Breezy westerly afternoon winds
will continue through the weekend, but are expected to be lighter Saturday and Sunday.

 

Outlook: Next Week:

Some model runs try to bring in more troughing while recent runs are redeveloping the upper ridge over the far west again.  Will stick with persistence as anomalous warmth is the way of this Summer. The redevelopment of the upper ridge is the preferred solution for the Dweebs….. Expect highs early next week in the low 80s…and lows in the upper 40s and low 50s…

Latest GFS run at 06Z on the 9th of AUG has 500MB heights once again building north of 594DM later next week. So, mid 80s in Mammoth is quite possible in our future again 2nd half of next week….

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………:-)

 

PS  Persides meteor shower will be flying high this weekend…..it will be a new moon….If it is not too smoky…try to catch a few and put them in your pocket…..Its good luck…….;-)

 

 

 

Nice Fresh Air Morning as southerly flow keeping most smoke to our north this morning….Upper flow starting to back from the Southwest, So expect that to change…ESE flow to arrive by Tuesday…..

Winds continue to diminish this late morning over the ridges from the south. Again, as in the header…..This has kept much of the smoke to our north and thus smoke from fires are effecting Alpine County and Northern Mono the most…..  Last few hours upper flow is becoming southwest again. The Dweebs expect smoke from fires to return to the Town of Mammoth this afternoon….

 

Although Monday looks Smokey…A change in the pattern as the upper ridge builds into California this week will usher in an ESE flow….that will likely help in keeping smoke from fires to our west and north of our area mid-week….Only to return possibly by the following weekend. It looks quite warm in the ESE flow with a chance of Thunderstorms returning by next weekend.

 

The Dweeber…….:-)

Critical “fire weather” set up today Saturday as Rare for Summer upper jet of 100 knots is forecast to move from Northern CA over the Sierra Today…..

From NWS RNO AFD:

A rare (for summer), strong jet streak with wind speeds in excess of 100 kts, is forecast to move from Northern California over the Sierra and Northern Nevada today.

This will create a 4-8 hour period of dangerous fire weather conditions with widespread wind gusts of 35-45 mph and up to 65 mph along the ridges. These winds combined with relative humidities of 5-15% will create a
Particularly Dangerous Situation so PDS Red Flag Warning are in effect today.

While the Red Flag conditions the last few days have been marginal, today will not. The conditions expected today are a rare event, on the order of once a summer.

If your recreation plans are going to be on the water, be prepared for much bigger waves than usual this afternoon.

From Fire Weather (WSFO RENO):

FIRE WEATHER…

Today is the day to watch out for with very strong winds and low humidity making for a Particularly Dangerous Situation and Red Flag Warnings in effect for the entire region. Wind gusts this afternoon are expected to reach 35-45 mph with wind prone
locations and ridge tops seeing even stronger winds. The timing of the strongest winds will be from approximately noon through 9 pm. With relative humidity in the 5-15% range, the combination of wind and low humidity could cause any ongoing fires to experience
a large increase in fire activity that could break containment lines. If any new fires were to start, they would likely grow and spread extremely rapidly. Air support operations could be heavily impacted by winds as well. Any personnel working on or near
existing or new fires would be in danger. This is one of those rare events that typically only occurs maybe once a summer.

Conditions improve Sunday with lighter winds that will be around typical afternoon speeds (peak gusts 18-30 mph along the Sierra Front). Humidity really doesn`t change with dry conditions continuing, however the slightly lighter winds will at least help.
Winds decrease further through early next week with lighter than average afternoon breezes expected. Temperatures do cool this weekend which should allow for improved recoveries overnight for Sierra valleys at least. Temperatures turn hot again by Tuesday
and Wednesday with triple digit heat in the forecast. -Dawn

 

Updating…………………