A Series of Strong Springs storms will bring wind…Cold and Snow to the high country….High temperatures Thursday will be more early March like with some moderation upwards into the weekend…..

Wednesday AM Update:

The QPF has been grossly increased for this first storm as a powerful for May, Atmospheric River slams into the Southern Sierra. Here are the point forecasts for snowfall for the Mammoth Lakes area from the NWS, through Friday AM

Mammoth Mt:     Tonight – 5 to 9 inches; Thursday –  6 to 10 inches; Thursday Night – 2 to 4 inches.  So about 2 feet over the upper mountain by Friday AM.

Village at Mammoth   Tonight  1/2 to and inch; Thursday – 3 to 7 inches; Thursday Night – 1 to 2 inches, Friday AM  1/2 inch

 

As mentioned in the discussion below, The combination of the El Nino Base State and the strong MJO has created constructive interference, producing a massive amount of PWAT into the tropics, part of which has been picked up by the short wave train across the Eastern Pacific and into California.

 

Saturday nights storm will not have the rich source of PWAT that tonight’s storm has, so it will not be as wet.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………..:-)

 

 

 

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What is particularly interesting about the developing pattern beginning Wednesday is the “amount of moisture highlighted in the PWAT parameter” in both EC and GFS, for a May Storm. This is quite unusual, but not exceptional. Strong winds will develop ahead of the front, that will be moving through our area Thursday morning. High temps will cool to the low 40s on Thursday. Lows in the teens and twenties Friday AM. About a foot of fresh snow is possible over the upper elevations of Mammoth Mt by Friday AM.

Another storm with an equally impressive upper jet will head into California later in the day Saturday, bringing more snow and rain, beginning later Saturday afternoon into early next week.  Although this system does not have the rich PWAT (precipitable water) indicated in the models like the Thursday storm, it appears to be a a storm that is more protracted in duration as the storm sort of stalls out over California next week. So precipitation is likely to become more convective in nature toward the middle of next week. I will have a better handle on next week’s storm by Sunday.  At this time, Saturday morning and  afternoon look to be the best time for outdoor activities this weekend, although it will become increasingly breezy in the afternoon. The high temperatures forecast for Saturday is 58 degrees in Mammoth Lakes.

Comments from the CPC:

  1. The MJO is now in phases 8/1 and is constructively interfering with El Nino.
  2. Constructive interference between the MJO and El Niño resulted in a coherent pattern spatially with large anomalies.
  3. El Nino continues to elevate the chances of above-average rainfall across the equatorial Pacific, while the MJO strongly favors above-average rainfall across parts of the East Pacific, Central America, and northern South America through at least late May.
  4. The above-average precipitation favored for the western U.S. is related to a highly amplified upper-level trough and an influx of subtropical moisture.

 

 

Dr. Howard and the Dweebs………………………:-)

Short term warm up to be followed by more unsettled weather….Beginning as early as Saturday…Then more likely Sunday and Monday….After a Warm up Thursday into Saturday…It will be cooler Sunday into next week…..

Saturday night….5-4-2019

Several forcing mechanisms will be affecting our weather this new week with the current upper low moving into Southern Ca and yet another that will develop off the coast of So Cal later this week.  It all adds up to an active week of showers and thunderstorms  for Mono County with high elevation snowfall.

Over the course of next week, (7 days);, areas of 1/2 to as much as an inch of water eq will fall in some areas. As it is convective the best chances will be over the higher terrain.  So an active week of weather with gradually cooler temps will follow. The forecast includes the chance of precipitation each day and even during some nights……….This may persist through next weekend.

 

The Dweeber……

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Had a peak at the new models this morning for the weekend and early next week.  The models are converging on a solution that brings some pretty strong upper divergence (unstable air) over the Central Sierra, both Sunday and Monday as the next closed upper low moves inland about Malibu CA. Sunday AM. The WX system sort of stalls out over Southern CA through Monday. There  is plenty of opportunity for some slow moving meso scale storms to develop over the sierra. These may produce some locally heavy precip, mainly during the mid to late afternoon hours like in the Summer. Storm may linger into the evening as well. Thundersnow possible….

 

The Dweeber……

Cooler Days Ahead through Tuesday as a small upper low heads east, south of Mammoth then Dry Northerly Cold Front furthers cooling Tuesday into Wednesday AM….Cool showery weather may return the following weekend….

Its been a fabulous few days, enjoying the spring thaw and the warm high country sun….   The  Forecast models show a small upper low moving the Southern CA and Northern Baja today and tonight. Unstable air will interact with the high mid August like sun today for a chance of mainly high elevation showers Monday. The upper ridge over the Eastern Pacific will amplify northward and help an overland cold front to deepen south Tuesday. This in turn forces short wave energy to drop south over the Northern Great Basin and along the Eastern Slopes of the Sierra Tuesday, into Early Wednesday AM.  Although there may be a few showers from this Cold Front, for the most part over Southern Mono County it will be just wind and cooling.  Highs in Mammoth Tuesday will hang close to the upper 40s during the afternoon with a hard freeze Wednesday AM with lows in the mid 20s. A warm up is expected to begin Wednesday afternoon into Friday with highs once again in the upper 60s by Friday.

Looking onward, it’s all about the Eastern Pacific Ridge as it builds northward with a weak undercutting of the westerlies. This allows short wave energy to once again cross into CA over the following weekend. (Cinco de Mayo) Thus the pattern appears to be repeating itself with a minor closed low, this time coming in north of Santa Barbara for a better pattern of upper diffluence and upper divergence the next weekend for the Sierra. Then yet another System will follow from the north mid week, similar to what we expect tomorrow Tuesday.

 

Both the 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day outlooks show above normal precipitation for the Sierra. Of course above normal precip this time of the year doesn’t always mean much snow or rain. Not because of temperatures but because the climo is pretty dry by early May.

 

Bye for Now….

 

The Dweeber………………..:-)