Very Warm Weather returned to the high country Tuesday with Wednesday the peak in the heat….East West Ridge to slide Eastward Thursday with Southeast flow returning for more afternoon and evening thunderstorms…..

Thursday July 19th Update:

Very Warm temperatures expected for the high country and Owens Valley next week with possible high temperature records Mid Week….

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Wednesday Temp Update:  Hi Temperature in Mammoth was 88 degrees Wednesday.  This was the warmest day of the Summer so far and the climatically warmest temperatures of the year.  So if it does not reach 88 again or warmer this year, Wednesday would have been our climatic warmest day.

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It was a very warm day Tuesday with a high in Mammoth of 86 degrees.  The models show an East West ridge which has kept the atmosphere capped with little convection in the afternoon other than a brief isolated thunderstorm over the sierra Tuesday PM.  Todays weather will be the warmest for the High Country and Owens valley with a high again near 106 expected in Bishop. The Upper high at 500MB reached 598DM over the top of Bishop yesterday and will remain there today. By Thursday AM, it slides SE to St George Utah. As it does, an easterly wave develops in its underbelly, which provides for air mass modification and good SE flow up from the deserts of SE CA and SW AZ.   The result will be a rapid increase in thunderstorms Thursday afternoon into the night.   With 700mb moisture in place, mainly diurnal afternoon and evening thunderstorms will continue into early next week. Not too sure how moist it will get by this Friday.  Will follow the PWATs and report later…  Plan on afternoon convection each and every afternoon beginning Thursday…

 

Next week:

 

The GFS and ECMWF and Canadian have differences in the strength of the continental high over California early next week.  The GFS is trying to bring a record heat wave over the southern state while the ECMWF has it warm but no records…..There has been some mention from forecasters that there has been a bias in the GFS to make it too hot.  Well see soon..  The 06Z Wednesday GFS has a large scale scorching 600DM high over Southern California Tuesday night. Both the Canadian and ECMWF are both a bit weaker with this upper high and further east.

Winter seems so long away!

 

The Dweeber……………….:-)

A very moist airmass will continue for the Eastern Sierra Friday, with slow drying Saturday through Tuesday with a warming trend….Another surge of monsoon moisture seems in the cards the second half of next week…..

It was a wet afternoon and evening Thursday in Mammoth with moderate to heavy rain in many areas that continued into the night.  Mammoth at the Village picked up .32 of an inch of rain while the Mammoth AP picked up .41.  Bishop’s precipitation was the most noteworthy with precipitation totals of 1.44 inches for 48 hour amounts for the days of July 11th and 12th. Not only was this a record for the dates but the consecutive two days combined were the wettest two days in any Summer at the Bishop Airport in 120+ years.

Fridays forecast is problematic as the sky’s are over developed this morning. This means that unless we get a few good hours of sunshine, the possibility of heavy rain is greatly diminished. So here we have a situation where areas of heavy rain will be focused only in areas where there is ample sunshine that creates good heating as there will not be much movement in the storms today.

High temps will be in the 70s today with lows in the 50s. If we do not get any meaning full sunshine today Friday, highs may only get into the 60s.

Focusing upon the synoptic pattern;  shows the beginning of a drying trend Saturday through Tuesday with Tuesday being a dry sunny warmer day with no precip in the forecast. Even through dew points are expected to be on the wane the next few days, added sunshine and heating may give a boost to rainfall, although lighter amounts. This would be especially true Saturday before enough dry air gets in the mix. Sunday and Monday shows just a chance or a slight chance of thunderstorms….Tuesday looks dry and warm.

 

Longer Range: Period 19th through 24th

High pressure will begin strengthening Sunday and especially Monday and Tuesday. However, over the central and southern part of the state, this will also act to suppress convection over the Eastern Sierra while temperatures soar to the mid 80s at resort levels and 105 in Bishop by Tuesday and Wednesday.

The Global Forecast System has the continental high strengthening to the east of Eastern California near the 4-corners states by Wednesday night. there is a good chance that the gates will open once again for Monsoon Moisture and Airmass Modification beginning Wednesday night and especially Thursday and Friday. This would redevelop a thunderstorm pattern once again prior to the following weekend. Thereafter, the GFS global model builds a 600+DM upper high at 500MB over the four corners states with the possibility of deep moisture.  With its outlook for the 600DM ISO height at 500MB pushing well into Southeast CA, extreme heat would develop again for Southern California Sunday or Monday and into Tuesday, around the 23rd of July. This pattern may bring a return of the 115 degree heat many inland valleys near the Downtown LA with 110 possible just inland from the coast..  Note: This is just an outlook and is subject to change this far out.

 

Dr Howard and the DWEEBS…………………..:-)

The Pattern of Dry Southwest Flow to end Tuesday as Pacific NW trough kicks out….Arizona Monsoon developing now will work SE flow into the high country by Thursday or Friday next week….Showers and Thunderstorms to gradually increase after Mid Week…..

Tuesday AM:

 

Forecast remains on track as upper Trof now inland over the Pacific NW, then progresses east today into Wednesday. This Trof has been the suppressant, keeping monsoon moisture to the east and south of Mono County so far this Summer.  By tomorrow Wednesday, the gates will open allowing moisture and dynamics to surge northward, eventually to the CA/OR BOARDER. Dry high based thunderstorms will begin Wednesday afternoon with an enhanced risk for fire starts in the high county that afternoon. Deeper moisture is expected Thursday into Friday with wetter thunderstorms.   The chance of thunderstorms increases later in the day Wednesday, that night and especially Thursday and Friday.  Nighttime temps will only cool into the upper 50s to low 60s Thursday night and beyond.  Details about thunderstorm coverage will be on a daily bases beginning Thursday.

High temps will be mostly in the upper 70s and low 80s after Wednesday with a lot more cloud cover.

 

For you folks in Southern Californians sweltering in the heat and humidity, FYI; dew points are mostly in the mid 60s to low 70s degrees now. That is hot and humid,  with muggy nights.  Sorry to say that this pattern is not likely to change for the next 1 to 2 weeks. Hope you have good refrigeration type air-conditioning….

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………..:-)

 

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It will be very warm but dry through this Monday as Southwest flow prevails aloft. High cloudiness will occur today Friday for both Central and Northern California as the remains of old Hurricane Fabio Blow off to the NE. The usual Mono Zephyr will continue during the afternoon and early evening hours with afternoon west breezes in the 15 to 30MPH range. Highs will be in the low 80s and nights in the low 50s.

The remains of the west coast trough leaves the Pacific Northwest coast and moves through Tuesday.  Thus the dry SW flow ends over Central California and we transit to our climatically favored South to Southeast flow this time of the year. This begins the moistening process for more afternoon convection in the following days. Mainly isolated thunderstorms develop in the late afternoon and early evening hours Wednesday with deeper Southeast flow developing over our region Thursday and especially Friday. Areal coverage of thunderstorms will likely increase. The details and specifics on the pattern change still to be worked out for the high country next week as too much cloud cover can shut down convection without any dynamics. One thing for sure, it will be a lot warmer early in the period with highs in the low then mid 80s by mid-week. As the Monsoonal flow strengthens and dynamics increase Thursday into Friday next week, more cloud cover can be expected with afternoon and evening convection and afternoon and early evening rain showers and Thunderstorms, leading to cooler days in the 70s. Nights will be in the 50s for the foreseeable future at resort levels.

 

Your Temperature forecast for the 8000 ft level in Mammoth:

 

Mammoth Lakes:

Fri           Sat          Sun        Mon      Tue         Wed        Thursday      Friday
SUNNY  SUNNY  SUNNY  PTCLDY  PTCLDY  PTCLDY     TS-RWS      TS-RWS
80 52/   81 50/    85 51    /84 50/    86 51/    81 50/        79 50          75/52

 

The Dweebs want to remind everyone that live is the deserts of Eastern California that young children and pets should never be left unattended in
vehicles under any circumstances. This is especially true during hot weather when car interiors can reach lethal temperatures in a matter of minutes.
With high temperatures expected in the 100 to 105 range this weekend and next week, temperatures inside of cars can reach 150 to 160 degrees
quickly with windows closed.