WET SYSTEM HEADED FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY SUNDAY….

THE DWEEBS LIKE THE EUROPEAN MODEL THE BEST IN THE CURRENT PATTERN AS LAST NIGHTS OPERATIONAL MODEL CONTINUES THE TREND WITH GOOD ENSEMBLE SUPPORT….

CURRENTLY….A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE NORTH OF HAWAII IS FORECASTED TO MOVE EAST, INITIATING PRECIP FOR NORTHERN CA EARLY SATURDAY AM WITH A WAVE TRAIN OF WET SYSTEMS BACKED UP TO THE WESTERN PACIFIC. TPW/S ARE IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL BAND ABOUT 1000 WEST OF THE CENTRAL COAST WHICH IS EXPECTED INTO NORTHERN CA SATURDAY MORNING…

MORE IMPORTANTLY….THE MAIN SHOT OF THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SHOULD SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL SIERRA SUN AND EARLY SUN NIGHT WITH RISING SNOW LEVELS AND WITH RAINS IN THE MAMMOTH AREA WELL OVER AN INCH BY SUNDAY PM. SIERRA CREST QPF ACCORDING TO THE EC IS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE NEAR YOSEMITE AND THE MAMMOTH CREST. SNOW LEVELS TO RISE WELL ABOVE 10,000 SUNDAY. THE UPPER JET WITH THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN NORTH OF CENTRAL CA. THE UPPER JET WILL TREND NORTH THROUGH MID WEEK THEN SAG SOUTH AGAIN THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

OUTLOOK:

THERE MAY BE ANOTHER STORM BEFORE ALL HALLOWS EVE AS THE EC AND GFS BOTH SHOWING AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUING.

THE GOOD NEWS….IS THAT SO FAR…THE NAO IS BEHAVING ITSELF AND SO THE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS PRETTY PROGRESSIVE WITHOUT ANY DOWN STREAM BLOCKING.

MORE LATER……