Tuesday 1/10/2012 Update:

The GFS 12z Tuesday Run came in a little wetter on the longest range sagging the southern branch of the westerlies far enough south to give the Sierra some precip beginning the 19th-23rd. The interesting thing is that the heights over Central Ca are similar to the EC. Could it be that it is coming in line with a less dryer solution?   And…..its 500-1000mb thicknesses were actually a little lower. (558 to 552DM). Snow Level 7500-8000ft. 

This is beyond the forecast period and falls within the outlook period between the 19th and the 23rd. (8 to 14day). Although the latest model run is certainly encouraging, I would like to see many more runs like this as we are still in a drought pattern and until that changes the outlook remains the same…..more on tomorrows flip-flop.

From Monday:

It appears that the Long Range Means are doing some back peddling from yesterdays encouraging signs. For whatever reason, model physics are not handling the big picture very well as the ensembles spreads are increasing again and the visibility diminishing…

The key here is the handling of the long wave upper ridge that is expected to develop near or just east of the dateline. The GFS is pretty much worthless this morning and the EC is developing the upper ridge further west. If you read the discussion from yesterday, I said that the key to a good storm will be where the upper ridge sets up. That if it sets up to far west, that we will ridge up again. That is what the GFS model is suggesting. In fact it just cuts it off north of the Bering Sea and redevelops the west coast ridge at 140W. That is a dry pattern again!! 

See: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cpc/cpc_NHEM_f264wbg.gif


The ECMWF is also west of where it was yesterday in the means.  Not good!!!!  However, the ensembles still lower the HP 500 mean heights into Central Ca to 564 DM by the 18th. That would generate some precip. 

Additionally this AM, the most recent Climate model run from CPC showing above normal 500mb heights over Central Ca through early Feb. They have totally gotten rid of the Wet week from the 20th thru 26th. THERE SURE HAS BEEN A LOT OF FLIP FLOPING!  I think that until we get some confidence into the 6 to 10 day or better yet, 3 to 7 day……all bets should remain off.


The Weather this coming week will be highlighted by temps for the most part in the 40s in town and lows in the 20s.  There is a very small scale closed low that forms off the Northern Ca coast that drops south this week.  Little in the way of any effects are expected here in Mammoth other then some clouds and a very slight chance of a shower Tuesday night.


Dan…..keep doing your snow dance….


The Dweeber………………….:-)



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