It was a real treat this past week. Some real winter weather for the Dweebs to sink their teeth in. However, now it appears that we are back into a funk with the cold back over AK and anomalous warmth over the far west. The GFS has ridging and a positive phase PNA effecting the far west over the next 6 to 10 days. However, this mornings 12Z Run does pinch off a weak trof around the 1st or 2nd of February.  I do not think that it will be major as the 8 to 14 day charts are dry. However, in that the Europien model has it as well, it is worth watching. 

The climate models do suggest that there may be some under cutting of the westerlies around the 2nd week of February. Between the 7th and the 13th. That would suggest a significant storm.

NAO and AO: The models have been forecasting this big flip to the Negative Phase and outside of a few recent incursions to the slight negative, they are flipping back!  The models have been wrong……Horribly Wrong!!  Whether this winter is being influenced to the dry side by the rapid increase in solar activity since the fall or not. Persistence appears to be the only way to forecast extended or long term WX this year…. And that wet periods here in the far west are likely to occur during periods of signifacant pattern transitions, rather then a real pattern change that lasts more than a week. There is a vulgar winter classification for this kind of pattern…..its called a drought year!

The good news today is that according to Ski Patrol at Mammoth MTN, we no longer can be the driest year since 1976 with 90 inches of snow……as our total is now 106.5 for the season. 

Mammoth Mountain now has the best skiing of the 2011-2012 ski season….be sure to get up and enjoy it!

The forecast this week is for temps rising above normal by mid week with highs in the 50s by Wednesday……some cooling arriving by Friday as a Northwest slider brings some dryer air, some wind and possibly a few showers Friday. High temps will cool to the 40s by Friday into the weekend with lows cooling to the lower 20s over the weekend.

 

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………:-)


 

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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.