Quick Update For Friday:

Windy over upper elevations today: With little temperature change:

1st WX system to bring a dusting to an inch or two Saturday/Ngt

2nd System Sunday night/Monday Ngt about 3 to 6+ inches

3rd system For Valentines Day/Wednesday is splitting on the new 12z Friday GFS….so

the energy and precip may remain off shore as a coastal slider with main effect

upon the immediate coastal sections of So-Cal.

“At this time”, the Dweebs expect the Sierra to have some showers from it

Valentines Day without any significant accumulations.


March Still Looks Wet!!!!

Quick update Thursday AM:

The next couple of weather systems are likely to bring some badly needed snowfall. First estimate for Mammoth Mtn….is 1 to 3 inches Saturday afternoon. The following system for Monday and Monday night is wetter and more dynamic (-30C cold pool at 500mb) with amounts possibly in the 3 to (6+) inches range for Mammoth Mtn Monday into Monday night. Will fine tune this Friday…. Then, showery weather with below normals temps will continue into Tuesday with additional light amounts. Fair weather is expected the 2nd half of next week.


Today’s MJO update supports yesterdays changes from the previous 3 to 4 days….

See: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/ensplume_full.gif

Comments added to yesterday’s discussion show MJO headed toward circle of death in Phase 8 before reaching Phase 1. This is not good for storminess….or retrogression of long wave ridge west of 140W.

I have found that true drought years are more consistent with “precipitation events” during periods of transition between dry patterns that last about 21 days. (21 days cycle?) This winter has followed that trend. 

Will update on MJO and Air Sea Coupled model next Tuesday. Who knows…it may flip back….

Teleconnection indices:


The Dweeber…..

Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.