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Archive for May, 2012
Warmer Weather Expected This Week for the High Country with Light Winds and Some Thunder by Friday…..Trofing Returns Next Week with Cooler Breezy Weather…..
Tuesday May 29, 2012
The Weather worked our pretty well for the last weekend of Skiing and Boarding on Mammoth Mtn. The cold weather early in the Weekend set the stage for freezing temps each morning and so the snow really set up over night for the Morning Thaw…..
The weather this week will be highlighted by stronger ridging building in ….eventually from the South/Southwest. Currently….A pretty strong Tropical/Subtropical High now centered in the southern Sea of Cortez will retrograde west through mid week and combine with shortwave ridging now approaching the Eastern Pacific.
Mondays 500mb/and surface weather maps still showed our weather being effected by weak trofing aloft and the thermal trof over the Great Basin. Over the next few days, a combination of increasing heights aloft and the focus of surface convergence associated with the Thermal Trof redeveloping over Western Calif, will put an end to the pesky zephyr winds that occurred Monday afternoon. This mornings 12z Tuesday WRF surface chart showed an inverted surface Trof aligned just inland from the Bay Area and over the coastal range. This will result in an ENE off Sierra Flow Toward the Bay Area, Wednesday and Thursday. This effectively kills the afternoon Zephier for Wednesday and Thursday afternoon and so Wednesday/Thursday will be best days for Local Golf…even in the late afternoon! By Friday Noon, the area of surface convergence begins to shift east again, over the Sierra by about 18Z to 20Z for a Chance of Thunder. There may be a light Zephier as well By late afternoon. By Saturday Afternoon Zephier winds will be in full swing with gusty west winds and little change in temps. Any Thunder will be confined to the White Mtns eastward.
This weeks high temps will peak Friday in the mid to upper 70s……night time lows in the mid 30 to the upper 40s….
Longer Range:
Sunday’s Weather will continue the transition back to Trofing with Breezy weather and cooler temps returning Sunday into Monday. The cooling will continue part of the following week……Temps will be normal to below normal next week…..with hot weather returning to the Eastern Half of the Country.
The Dweeber………………………………:-)
Keeping your Mammoth Lakes Weather updated 12 months a year……………………………:-)
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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.
Friday’s Storm Highlights……Warming Up Next Week…..
Saturday May 26, 2012
Chilly….that is what it was Friday…Breezy too! Snowfall?? Well the Dweebs did see plenty of showers but only a dusting accumulated….so a bit of a disappointment in that department. When ever you have a dry front followed by an upper low that brings the main shot of precip by upper divergence you can get disappointed. Kinda like what Forest says….It’s kinda like a box of chocolates, you never know what your gonna get for sure….
Here are some interesting points of this storm locally;
Mammoth RAWS sites:
Old Mammoth: At elevation 8012feet, the high temperature was 31 at 9:30am yesterday and the 24Hr low actually occurred during a convective snow-shower at 3:30pm and was 23 degrees! The overnight low of 24F actually occurred at 3:30am and by Sunrise or just after when the usual diurnel low occurs, was already 27 degrees…with little change in wind speed. So air mass modification was already occurring as the 500mb-1000mb 546dm thickness pool aloft was shrinking and moving ESE while the surface low located along the NV/Utah border was racing east toward Colorado.
Saturday mornings circulation of being on the back side of the 500mb and 700mb upper low is Northwesterly. There is still some 700mb RH that will come through the first half of the day and plenty of unstable air aloft for some showers and possible thunder. By tonight, the air mass stabilizes with subsidence setting in. Sunday will be notable warmer with some clouds especially in the morning. Temps will rise well into the 50s then 60s Monday.
After more then 24 hours of below freezing temps in Mammoth, temps are rising above freezing this morning…the worst is over as far as the cold…..
Although tonight’s temps will go below freezing again….it will be of shorter duration and a lot of the cold will be sink to the lower elevations Sunday AM as subsidence develops late tonight into Sunday.
Longe range:
For the most part 500mb heights will rise Monday through Thursday of next week with the 500mb 582DM height line not lifting north of Mammoth Lakes until Wednesday PM. So quite a bit of warming is expected to set in between Wednesday and Thursday for the upcoming week. Additionally, there is a weak trof that comes into the west coast that causes a sheer lobe vort center to form off the Southern Ca coast. With the combination of 500mb heights above 582dm and some weak divergence over the southern sierra Wednesday there looks to be some afternoon clouds Wednesday and Thursday. Longer range shows weak divergence aloft and an area of deformation (surface convergence) over the central/southern Sierra for a slight chance of TSRWS on Friday. It may be a bit cooler next weekend…..
Longer Range:
The climate Forecast Center is forecasting a bias toward cooler then normal temperatures here in the Eastern Sierra through the end of Spring with normal precepitation. See: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/sweaver/cfs_fcst/images1/wk3.wk4_20120525.NAsfcT.gif
Dweebs Comment:
Although we will have some nice warm weather later this week with highs in the 70s……
The Negitive Phase PDO continues…..Heights aloft will probably remain above normal over the warm water pool located NW of Hawaii, between Hawaii and the Dateline. Cooler then normal SSTAs will continue off the west coast for cooler then normal temperaturesr more often than not, along the immediate central coast this Spring into Summer. It appears that there will be a bias for normal to below normal temps here in the high country through Spring. So expect expect more freezes between now and fathers day…and some periods for some nice warm weather as well!!
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………….:-)
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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.
Windy Weather To Return Later Today and Tonight as Cold Core Upper Low Desends Into California….Skiers to get Nice Closing Weekend Present With Several inches of Freshies Possible Over the Upper Elevations Friday Through Saturday….Warmer Weather Returning by the Holiday….
Thursday May 24, 2012
Thursday PM Update:
18z run has come in a little drier. So 2 to 4 inches seems more reasonable at this time. Again a lot will depend upon how fast this system moves out of Ca Saturday.
Winds picking up in town now….
5:00PM winds at KMMH 25mph gusting to 45mph
Old Mammoth west 25mph gusts to 35 MPH
Top of Ol Wholly 50MPH gusting to 70mph out of the SW
Some light snow developing Friday into Saturday still look good.
The Dweeber
From This AM:
Nothing has changed from the past several days other then to emphasize that a lot of the precip will occur after the front comes through Midday Friday….
The Dweebs like the way this system spins up to a 543DM upper Low at 500MB over the next 24 hours over Northern Ca. This is Certainly impressive for a system in late May. In that the upper low will be slow to leave the State of California over the weekend….lingering well into Saturday, Skiers and Borders may get lucky with the possibility that some 3 to 5 inches that may fall over the upper elevations by Saturday night. A nice gift from mother nature for the last two days of the holiday and to finish off the year.
At the moment we are expecting an inch or two in town Friday.
Expect the possibility of a hard freeze over the weekend for the high country……Bring your green’s in if you can by Friday.
Friday will be the coldest day with highs in the upper 30s in town.
High temps at 10,000 feet will be in the 20s on Friday.
Next week looks sunny and warmer with highs returning to the 70s by Tuesday or Wednesday………………..
The Dweeber………………….:-)
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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.
