A well amped upper ridge will build northward along 140W tapping some Western Canadian Air which then plummets south down the west coast. This will bring the return to frigid conditions by Thursday night that will remain through the Weekend. Light snowfall will develop late Wednesday night toward Midnight and continue into Thursday. At the moment, only a few inches are expected through Thursday night, so a nice freshening of the deep snow pack in the Sierra is expected.

So far the forecast models are pretty dry with this next system. However, my experience has shown that storms like these can often times fool forecasters.

The upper level winds moving up and over the Sierra will be natural to the Sierra for a time.  So there will be a period of orographics with the height falls. There will also be a period of over water trajectory creating more of an “ocean lake effect”. So the up shot is…..Do not be surprised if we get a bit more than forecasted.

Beyond the upcoming short wave for Thursday, there will be an inside slider bringing mainly light snow showers and a little up-slope Saturday night. Possibly some Mono Lake effect?  Over all it will get very cold again and the cold will last through the weeks end. However, it does not look as cold as it did for this upcoming weekend as it did 4 days ago as the upper ridge does not build as far north and is a bit further east..

The weather next week will be highlighted by the off shore ridge progressing into the state of California. This will cap over any remain cold air in the valleys and bring quite a warm up to the resort levels. We may experience 50 degrees at the 8000 foot level in Mammoth by Wednesday/Thursday and possibly beyond into the following weekend.


A strong MJO is currently building in Phase IV and is forecasted to move through Phase V and eventually Phase VI. In this sequence, a ridge is often found in the East and a trough in the West. Eventually a flip in the pattern is likely by the middle of next week with a ridge near the west coast and a deep trof in the east toward the end of next week.  Later in the month of January if the MJO remains strong and progresses, we may see an extension of the East Asian Jet occurring across the pacific. This may be associated with undercutting or a split in the jet with a southern branch headed for the Southern half of California about the end of the 3rd week of January. This may bring beneficial rains to Southern California.


Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………………………:-)