Confidence is now increasing between the GFS and the EC that the “slower more clustered ECMWF ensemble solution” will bring a good snow producing system to the Sierra over the weekend. In that now we have better agreement that the slower solution is preferred, upwards to two feet of snowfall is expected over Mammoth Mountain based upon last nights 00z Tuesday guidance. Additionally, between 6 to 12 inches is expected in town. The storm will begin very late Friday night with some very light snowfall that will continue into Saturday morning, with the tempo picking up Saturday afternoon into the night. By Sunday Am upward to a foot is expected on Mammoth Mountain and “about” 3 to 6 inches in town.

Additionally….The slow movement of the system will allow snowfall to continue well into Sunday. The upper flow will be natural to the Sierra and so good orographics combined with ample vertical motion is expected to produce upwards to another foot by Sunrise Monday morning. This 2nd part of the storm will be colder and so snowfall will be lighter. It may even fluff out to be higher amounts then a foot.

Monday looks partly cloudy and cold with possibly some light upslope snow shower action. A powder day for sure! The ECMWF’s QPF just west of the Summit has settled down to about 2 inches now which looks more reasonable. This mornings new HPC 7 day total precip bullseye’s the precip right over the top of Mammoth Mt. The storm has got some cold air in it, so although snow levels will begin higher….the freezing level should be down to about 5500ft by 10:00am Sunday, with snowfall effecting most of the Mono County Valley floor areas during the afternoon. Further cooling is expected throughout the night and into the early morning hours with the freezing level near 4000 ft by midnight Sunday night. Snow levels typically are 1,000 to 1500 feet below the freezing level.

In the meantime, there is a splitting system that will bring some very light snowfall Wednesday night. An inch or two is possible over the crest and up to an inch in town is certainly possible.

For the time being…..this weekend storm looks to be a one storm scenario before we ridge up again later next week. Looks like the Mono Lake freezing fog will be back for a time…..

More Later…………………………….>>>>  🙂