Models are trending a bit slower and stronger with the Thursday Trof, now lingering it into Friday. Although yesterdays guidance showed about 8 to 10 degrees of cooling, it now looks more like between 10 to 15 degrees total. With the deeper scenario, heights will be lower and thus along with the stronger breezes Thursday, snow showers will likely develop over Mammoth.  Additionally, it may stay showery on and off through Friday night. The weekend looks Fair and warmer with highs back to near 60 Saturday and mid to upper 60s Sunday and Monday.

As indicated yesterday, there is a fundamental change in the Western Hemispheric Pattern Taking place. Whether it is MJO initiated or the fact that the QBO is now stronger in its positive mode. Blocking that has been so strong over Eastern Canada, east to Greenland this past Winter/Spring has totally broken down, with that upper height anomaly NNE on the other side of the NP. The main PV is now located north of the Bering Sea. A high latitude blocking High is setting up over west-central Canada. That combined with changes over the western Pacific, possibly initiated by the MJO, teleconnects to an incipient long wave trof that may prove to be stronger and more persistent over time. Once set up….The Climate Forecast System Vs.2 does not break down the west coast long wave until the first week of June.  Sensibly, we will begin to experience unsettled weather tomorrow into Friday with a break over the weekend into early next week. That may prove out to be the last of the warm weather as the long wave begins to extend SSW along the California coast the middle of next week into that following weekend.

Memorial Weekend weather may be much cooler than normal with snow showers possible or ????  😉


Next update Monday or Tuesday as the Dweebs will be traveling again…….:-)