Tuesday Am Update:

QPF has settled in at between .4 and .5 .   The snowfall forecast is 1 to 3 inches in town and 3 to 5 inches in the upper elevations…..

The track of the upper center is pretty much right over the top of us now and as of late….which is an adjusted slight jog to the East.

 

light Snowfall will begin during the day Wednesday and end Thursday evening.

 

More later………………………:-)

 

 

Saturday AM Update:

Mother Nature Picking up the Tempo……

Both Global Models last night still suggesting some nice light snowfall mid-week. Speed of system will determine the amount of snowfall as the American GFS model is pretty quick to move system out of here during the day Thursday. The  ECMWF delays a bit more keeping the system far enough west to continue upslope snowfall in the high country into Thursday evening and suggests up to 3 to 5 inches in the higher elevations by Thursday night. The ECMWF is certainly the most aggressive with snowfall as it is slower. By 00z Friday the EC has the upper center over Southern NV while the GFS has it over east central Utah. Both models agree on tracking the upper low far enough west for westerly flow into the coast west of Mammoth with the upper center at 500mb along with the center at 700mb very close to Mammoth Wednesday Mid afternoon.  So the upper center will “initially” be the instability that brings precip to Mammoth Mt associated with the upper low itself rather than any prolonged westerly advective flow.  On Thursday, upslope will develop as the upper center shifts south and east with NNE flow in its wake. There is some moisture indicated at 700mb that will trail the upper low Thursday by both models. Again….There will be a period of Upslope as well, but this system is not your classic inside slider any more. Track of Cold Upper Low for Mid week still suggests a model blended 4 to 5 inches over the higher elevations and even 2 to 3 inches in town.  If you have not blown your sprinklers out yet…..this weekend would be a really good time! A lot of cold air will settle over the area Thursday with possible upper teens at night in some areas.

Retrogression is apparently in the cards in the longer range as the next significant short wave digs south further west over water.  However, a strong split in the flow is noted as it approaches the coast around the 20th.  The Dweebs will have another look at that system Tuesday AM.

 

Stay Tuned……The Dweebs have you covered…………………………………………………;-)

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………………………..:-)