10-31-2013 UPDATE

No changes to the Short Term Forecast…..

Fair and Sunny today for All Hallows Eve
Temps today in the mid 50s then near 60 both Friday and Saturday.
Tonight lows for the little goblins will be mostly low 40s but cooling to the upper 30s by 8:00pm.

(With 700mb temps at or above +5c Thursday night through Saturday morning) Snow making conditions will become more marginal again. However by Sunday, colder air will invade the upper elevations after Midnight Saturday night with improving snow making conditions…..The First part of next week looks ideal!

The Weekend outlook looks breezy beginning Saturday evening then cooler and windy Sunday into Sunday night. Lots of high clouds as well. So far the showers are expected to stay up to the north of us, down to about Coleville, Ca  However, if that system sharpens up any more, the Dweebs can not rule out a few snow showers, especially if we get clipped by a late trailing Vort Max on the back side of the upper Trof later Sunday or Monday AM.

High temps Saturday near 60 but cooling to the 40s by Sunday as a dry cold front comes through. Monday will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s following by teens the following morning,

It is a dry 5 to 7 day outlook…


Longer Range Progs push back the pattern change for significant storminess….To begin between the 12th and 14th of November.

Remember especially this time of the season……the target often times will change in both directions so stay tuned!!


1. The Forecast for November shows normal precipitation and colder than normal temperatures.

2. “The Main Stormy Period” according to the CFS with the best chance of snowfall is the period between the 14th through the 20th of November……………….


Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………..




From Yesterday:

500 hpa heights will rise today through Friday as warmer air moves in from the Eastern Pacific over the colder air in place. Antecedent moisture left from yesterdays storm will combine with a strengthening inversion to create freezing fog conditions….mainly after midnight tonight and into the morning hours along the highway 395 corridor. This will be especially true, in and around the open area lakes like Mono and Crowley Lake. Freezing fog can be a problem for drivers on bridges,  as well as your windshield because of reduced visibility.  Here in Southern Mono County, the 395 highway stretch through the Long Valley area is favored for radiational and freezing fog. Its bridges between the Sherwin Summit and the Mammoth turn off can be hazardous for motorist’s not accustomed to driving in such conditions.  Put windshield defrosters on warm then high heat before you get into that area. That is the best way to drive through it and of course slow down before you get into the Ice Fog.

Comment and recap of the last storm.

There was a lot of hype during the last storm that caught all forecasters off guard on the amount of precipitation that fell in the Mammoth area. The storm was prefaced by a high wind event Sunday night in which several areas lost power. Precipitation began in the form of snow about 3:00am Monday morning after the front moved through. The short term models came in sync indicating a 110 Knot upper jet along then off shore as the system evolved. Moisture developed over California as the system deepened. It seemed that the models were constantly playing catch up to the storm itself. No doubt that there was an orographic effect to this system as reflected in snowfall amounts, even though it was uncharacteristic of the weather type itself.

The Storm system brought at least a foot over the Mammoth Sierra Crest with an estimated .94 inches of water over the Pass according to telemetry. 10 inches of snow  was measured at the plot according to Joni Lynch at Mammoth Mt.  Given the orographic nature of the event, it was highly unlikely that 10 inches of snow fell at elevations between 8000 and 8300 as reported by some zealot’s. Gusty winds in convective showers most likely resulted in tallied amounts as such,  most likely in areas lee of buildings or trees.  At Mamothweather.com, the snow melt tip bucket tallied .44 inches of water. I measured between 6 to 8 inches of snow with a few areas up to 10 inches. Again, in areas “Lee” of trees,  caused by blowing and drifting. The temperature of 25 degrees can foster ratios of up to 15:1.


Moving on….Ridging is the word the next few days. Along with the ridging comes warmer temps. Highs may climb as high as 60 by Friday or Saturday. Nighttime lows will be effected by temperate inversions with the coldest temps in the lower Mono County Basins or valleys.

The pattern remains progressive and a series of short wave trofs will ride mainly to the north of Mammoth through early next week. The next system over the weekend will bring mainly high clouds to Mammoth with breezy conditions developing later Saturday into Sunday. A dry cool front will bring cooling to the tune of some 10 to 15 degrees by Sunday over Saturdays highs. Monday will be cooler yet with highs near 40.  Temperatures remain a bit below normal for the most part as we transition from October to November.  So Far…..It is a dry 5 to 7 day outlook.

Longer Range:

There is certainly excitement for the possibilities in the longer range. The PNA teleconnection pattern is expected to become more negative in nature as the calendar progresses beyond mid week next week. A long wave trof is more likely than not,  expected to set up along the west coast and eventually effect the southern half of the west coast as the Polar Jet makes a return for the Winter. The timing of the Ensembles of both global models, is about 24 hours apart. The ECMWF is the fastest bringing in the first salvo of precip Thursday PM the 7th while the GFS ESM is later the next day Friday.  The  good news is that there is a strong suggestion is that this is not just a one shot deal. Rather a series of storms as the pattern or should I say west coast negative height anomaly intensifies (deepens) into the following week.


Stay Tuned………………………



Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………….:-)