A beautiful day is expected throughout Eastern Ca with warmer temps and breezy conditions over the higher elevations. Highs in Mammoth will be in the mid to upper 50s the next two days with high clouds and strong breezy conditions over the upper elevations at times. There continues to be an impressive upper subtropical jet coming out of the Central Pac into the Pacific NW. This jet will sag south with time into the Central Sierra Saturday/night with a potential High Wind Event, Saturday PM for Mono County.

The hose that is currently pointed at the Pacific NE will slowly shift south and weaken to a trickle by the time it reaches the Mammoth area. Nevertheless…we may end up with a few inches of snowfall Saturday Night and Sunday AM. A bit more could occur over the crest as usual with orographic’s. At this time I do not expect any more then 3 to 6 over the crest by noon Sunday.

The Dweebs are all over the storm expected the middle of next week. Looking at the GFS guidance, there is still a tropical connection, however its continuity to the west coast will get blocked later next week as mid latitude short wave ridging sets up in-between Hawaii and the northwest. So the hose has a block put in front of it and the water gets squirted directly into the westerly’s behind the upstream ridge.  This may have the effect of prolonging the precip event in the northwest flow following the main short wave a week away. that is if the short wave ridge is not too amped. Although it is too far off to get excited about major amounts,  I would not be surprised to see a foot or two the second half of next week, or more if the storms lingers over the far west like some of the longer range models are hinting at. So to be clear, this is a tap of Subtropical moisture Tuesday into Wednesday, but thereafter it gets cut off by the Cold front later Wednesday PM.

There has been a change in the depth of the long wave trof over the far eastern pacific the past few days as the pattern in general is more dampened with less amplification. It will be interesting to see if that trend continues, or if it reverts back to being more amplified with a deeper long wave trof over the far Eastern Pac. It will not take much of that to happen height wise, to effect Mammoth. Unfortunately for the Southern CA area, this does not appear to be a major storm for you folks.  More later…..


Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………:-)