Sat 9:50pm

Mammoth Pass reports 1.22 inches of precipitation so far and less than Yosemite. Temperature at 8200ft is 36 degrees, while at the main lodge it is 30. Snow level about 8400.   Main Plume is nearing the north coast now and will be moving in shortly over the north coast. Precip rates will pick up after midnight tonight with another inch and a half of QPF expected. Snow levels are verifying a little lower than forecast…..so it is now possible that some 3 to 5 inches may fall over the next 24 hours at elevations above 8000 feet by Sunday Afternoon.

After this storm…. the storm door closes except for a few minor systems.  Both 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 outlooks look drier then normal….

 

Next update in the morning……

 

Saturday AM Update:

At 9:30am this morning, the FMCW (Snow Band Snow level Radar) at the Pine Flat Dam located 36.83N and 119. 31W is pretty representative of the snow level over the Mammoth Lakes Location to the west of us. With a prevailing westerly flow it showed the Snow level at 8524ft at 3:30AM this morning and at 9:30Am at the 6976Ft. So the snow level has dipped for some reason.  However, although there may be micro physical processes at work here, the results still show the snow level rising tonight into Sunday AM. The freezing level is expected to remain at or above 9000  and that the last wave comes through Sunday night. At that time there would be the chance of snowfall accumulations in town. How much depends upon how quickly the snow levels drops and how much moisture is left in the system at that time.

The New CRFC update at 2026Z shows the Freezing level at 8500 at 4:00am then 8800 at 10:00am over Yosemite. At Huntington Lake it was 8600 and 9100 respectively.  However at 4:00pm and 10:00pm at Yosemite, it goes up to 9100 and 9400 and at Huntington Lake goes to 9300 and 9900 respectively. So it will get warmer going into tonight.  Remember the Snow level in saturated air is lower equal to or a bit lower than the freezing level but not all that much. Maybe 500 feet or so.

On another subject, the new model runs are not quite as wet at last night runs. If you look at the latest Sat imagery, the tropical connection is not as dense as it was yesterday. However, that is a stream of moisture out of the tropics that is in constant flux.

Longer range:

1. Highly amplified pattern over the central pacific will de-amplify over the next week. At the same time the big cold low now coming south north of Kauai and south of the Aleutians will eject through the west coast late next week. It will weaken as it moves through the eastern pacific and its trajectory at this time is mostly north of us.

 

More Later today….

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Nothing much to add from the last post other than it looks a bit wetter this morning for Mammoth. The QPF blend of models suggest 3 to 4 inches of water up on the pass. With orographic’s you can never get it exactly right and so it may end up more, so the 3 to 4 inches is probably a bit conservative.  This means that considering the freezing levels and the low snow to water ratio’s, the upper mountain should be in for a good 2 to 3 feet by Monday AM. In town the most snow will fall Saturday morning and it could be 5 to 6 inches before the freezing levels go to 9000 that afternoon and 9500 Saturday night. The snow level will be about 8000 Saturday afternoon and 8500 Saturday night into Sunday afternoon. It comes down later Sunday night and so will the snow level.  Strong winds will accompany the storm with gusts in town Saturday morning in the 50 to 60 range.

 

For those that plow, you may be busier in the elevations above the village longer Saturday before it too changes to rain, or Rain Snow mix

Let me know if you smell the pineapple’s……:-)

 

Here is some great news!!!

Scripp’s Institute just came out on February 3rd, 2014,  with their ENSO outlook for the next winter, ( The winter of 14-15). They are forecasting a major EL Nino. This is usually associated with big time snows for the Eastern Sierra, Tahoe South.

SEE: http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/fcst_gifs/fcst_made_2014-02_for_2014-12.jpg

 

The Dweeber………………:-)