Friday Update:

It appears that the last Subtropical Ridge Building NW from Old Mexico is in Play. This type of Ridge is different than the ones that move in from the pacific. This is usually a late July through early September type pattern, with the exception of the fact that the SW monsoon is over.  So the word is,  enjoy the last Summer like pattern in Fall!.. We will expect other warm ups, but not the type that will cause this warm up this year.   Otherwise expect high temps in the low to mid 70s this weekend and into Monday with the lows in the upper 30s and 40s in town. The upper high breaks down pretty quickly early next week with the return of low to mid 60s by midweek.

 

At this time…..Other then some cooling next week and some clouds and breezes…the weather will be fair until the middle of October when a system is expected to bring wind and cooling and ?????….;-)

 

The Dweeber………………………..:-)

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Wednesday AM Update: October 1st..  It will be cooler today Wednesday……

No changes to the previous discussion through the end of next week. However, it is what happens after that, that will be of interest…. Although the GFSX keep the ridge in place through Mid October, the ECMWF is bringing in a storm mid-month.  With that said, of all the months of the year, October is probably the worst month for model verification.   Nevertheless…the fact that the EC is seeing something for the middle of October is worth noting……..Even though our American counter part is not in agreement at this time………………Stay Tuned!!!!!

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………….:-)

 

 

After a cool weekend, temperatures recovered nicely Monday with highs back into the mid 60s with little breeze. A weak inside slider is expected to bring about 5 degrees of cooling Wednesday as a dry front moves through the Great Basin Tuesday Night and so high temperatures will briefly return to near 60 degrees Mid Week.

It is nearly October and forecasters must pay special attention to western pacific tropical storm activity. Looking upstream to the western pacific…..Western Pacific tropical storm activity will affect our weather over CA.  Tropical storm “PHANFONE” is expected to spin up toward the weekend and become a Super Typhoon by Saturday with a least Cat 4 status.  This storm is expected to phase with the westerlies “destructively”.  This supports current extended modeling of a strengthening west coast ridge which is expect to get stronger and more amplified the following week. A strong ridge developing over the far west this weekend with result in above to much above normal temps this weekend. This results in highs at least in the low 70s for Mammoth and near 90 for the Bishop area by Saturday. This upper west coast ridge is expected to last through most of next week with beautiful windless Fall Weather in the high country with a  resulting “Fab Foliage” season. Temps next week will continue into the 70s……

Intra-Seasonal:

The next change is shown in the ECMWF weeklies. This is in both the control and ensembles….In Weeks 1 through 4

A change to cooler windy weather about the middle of October. This may bring another dusting of snowfall or more. Another period of unsettled weather is expected about the first week of November according to the CFS.

ENSO:

Neutral ENSO conditions still continue over the Enso Basin.  Several Kelvin Waves traveling eastward will begin pushing SSTA’s higher over the Central and East Central Nino Basin, over next few weeks then into Fall.  This is one hope that at least (weak to moderate El Nino conditions) will develop later this Fall or Winter. Remember, it takes 3 to 5 months of SSTA’s over .05C in the 3.4 region to be classified as an El Nino.

Note:

What seasonal forecasters like about a more significantly positive ENSO signal, is that it gives an increasing bias to long-range forecasting for wetter then normal weather for at least Southern CA   What you’re not reading in the news is that you do not always need an El Niño for Wet weather in California. There are other “*Teleconnections” that can do the job as well.

Teleconnections:

We are looking for a winter with some of the teleconnections indicating, -QBO, +PDO, Weak-Moderate ENSO, Low Solar.   A -QBO is usually good for higher incidence’s of blocking near Greenland. So a -AO as well as a -NAO are more likely this Winter Season.  Additionally, Those three teleconnections along with a positive PDO favor a stronger west coast ridge and thus a northerly displaced upper west coast Jet.

However, even a weak El Nino may provide for enough of a strong split in the southern branch of the polar jet to wet Southern and the Central CA coast.  Although Central CA coastal areas in a weak El Nino are more favored for wetness than the more interior areas.

As we all know there is a lot riding on a wet water year this coming Fall, Winter and Spring.  “The Cake is still Baking”…..and so this winters weather is still not set in stone.

The Dweebs will be on it…. throughout the Fall and Winter so stay tuned….

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………:-)