El Nino Update:

Nino region 3.2 has reach the lower threshold of .5C and must stay that way through December 15th to officially be called El Nino.   However, the heat below the surface from the Eq….. North of Hawaii to well east through the Nino Basin is once again impressive due to a Kelvin Wave of moderate strength. The anomalous sub ocean heat associated with the Kelvin wave is now beginning to surface and further warming is expected to the Nino Basin.  To follow the SSTA’s watch the following link: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for  

It is possible that Air Sea Coupling will occur well before the Warming peaks to the Nino Basin.




Moisture for Hurricane Odile will remain south of the Central and and much of the Southern Sierra as the timing of a trof of low pressure suppresses the moisture.  The Desert Southwest will get a lot of rain and flooding again from this TS…..This time Mainly AZ and NM…


Above normal temps will continue through Tuesday with a slight chance of a few showers or thunderstorms today, with mainly afternoon clouds Tuesday……High temps will be in the mid to upper 70s with lows in the 40s and low 50s.  The outlook for mid-week shows a split in the main branch of the westerlies allowing the southern branch to come into CA with breezy and somewhat cooler weather Thursday. The front itself will have some limited moisture with it…..Enough to bring a chance of showers to the high country early Thursday AM.  Thursday will be about 10 degrees cooler than today Monday.


The outlook the second half of this week shows the upper trof pinching off into a weak cut off over Southern CA. By Friday PM,  a slight chance of showers is expected from mainly upper divergence and surface heating. This will also be true for Saturday PM as well.

Beyond the weekend, the new 12Z Monday GFS builds a ridge into California from the Eastern Pacific for more above normal temps developing the early to middle part of next week.


Summer will go out like it came in…..Beautiful!

The first week of Fall looks warmer than normal with high temps pushing 80 again later next week….


Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………………..:-)