Archive for December, 2014

After a New Years Eve Day of teens and single digits, a new ridge will build in with a warming trend for the next several days. In fact high temps will climb into the 50s early next week.  A new system will transit the sierra about the 8th of January with some light snowfall. Light winds will be the word over the next several days with strong temperature inversions. Some of the colder valleys will go 20 below Zero tonight…

Stay warm…relief is on the way!

Happy New Year….I hope for lots of snow in our future………

The Dweeber……..:-)

Thursday  2:13 PM New Years day.

Comments:

As we start the New Year, I estimate that Mammoth Mt has received about 4.3 inches of Water.  This is using the Data from the DWP. I know that, that is different then the snow plots 7+ inches being tallied by Mammoth Mt. Possibility some of that is from Snowmaking?   The last survey data was two days ago, December 30th. not sure if it included the dusting on the Mountain or not. However,  there was little if any moisture in it anyway.   So officially 4.3 inches from DWP at the pass as compared to about 4.5 inches Dec 30th  2013. IE we are a little below last year this time. Comment: I do not know if DWP has been to the pass to physically measure yet.   (Where is Bob Sollima when you need him?)

Looking at all the prophecies of snowfall that many are forecasting a month ahead of time using mainly the ECMWF, one can see that the guidance is pretty much worthless this year. Sure one can say that we got such and such at the end of the month. However, that is after updating with a lesser amount forecast once or twice during the middle of the month. This drought so far is pretty amazing. I can say that we have had dry stretches historically, but this so far has been a different animal.

The non declared El Nino has apparently peaked and has actually pulled back from the warmth of Mid December. So when the three month criteria is reached, this will go down as a weak El Niño I would imagine.  I think that the MJO signal is probably the more important signal at the moment for the support of the week two and 3 in the models that have been trying to predict a break through in the westerlies. (IE Under Cutting) The question is which model related MJO RIM chart do you buy?  If you listen to Joe Bastardi, he likes the JAMA. (Japanese model)  The JAMA model is the least aggressive with the Forward Movement and Strength of the MJO. If you buy the JAMA, then you better hang it up for quite awhile…at least a few weeks. It will be ridge city for sometime to come.   With that said, a big ridge is forecasted to build along the west coast over the next 5 days. However, this is not what I am blogging about.  I am looking into Week 2 and even 3.  For early week 2, there is a storm that will move through around the 8th. This was supposed to be associated with moderate undercutting for a good wet storm for CA. However the last several days has shown a weakening of that pattern and on that idea.  Why?  Is the JAMA correct?

So the outlook from this distance is for a big warm up this weekend into Tuesday with strong temperatures inversions and possible Mono Lake POGONIP and warm temps aloft. The Freezing level is supposed to peak out according to CRFC  at 14,000 ft Tuesday at 10:00AM for Mammoth Lakes. Then next WX system will have to either crash the ridge or push over it with most of the QPF pushed over Washington state into BC.   We will likely get wind, cooling and possibly some showers.  It will be much warmer system than the last system.  This is based upon this mornings GFS and EC.    Beyond that, it will depend upon which model you buy into.  I see lots of possibilities, some of which bring us some snowfall and others that just keep the storms either splitting for the central sierra or light amounts of snow. The most aggressive was the GEM (Canadian) this morning. The Canadian is still singing a good break through tune.  I am at this time not buying into the GEM.

The ECMWF shows the MJO strengthening in phase 5 into early 6 then weakening rapidly into 7 toward the end of January. Phase 5 has a pretty good bias for below surface temps that are centered off the central coast of CA during El Nino years of .5C     I belief that this is positive for storminess for at least the coast.

See:  http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO/JanENMJOphase5gt1500mb.gif

So if the EC is correct, then we may have a good storm later this month.   For MJO tracking see:  http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

For the record…..both 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day outlooks from NCEP today are much warmer than normal with below normal precip through the 15th of January, 2015

With so many models and so many opinions….longer range forecasting is even more confusing!

The Dweeber……………………………….:-)

Saturday PM:  Attn. Condo Managers

Just looked at the new 12z ECMWF 700MB temps. The EC shows between -18C and -19C at 06Z Wednesday (Tuesday night). That’s about -2F on the Mountain in free air.   Tuesday will be very cold with a wind chill factor over the higher elevations. By Wednesday AM temps will be well Below Zero in many areas of Mono County that are wind protected.

Toms Corner:

In short term, QPF models could easily underplay snow amounts on “bowling ball” type vort max and low track directly south along or just to west of Sierra crest on Tuesday/Wednesday. These are calling bowling balls because of there shape and are heavy hitters with QPF as opposed the the ligher northwest sliders or back door fronts which “brush” quickly through the area. QPF models down play most of these north to south system because the cold advection term in the QG Omega equation results in weaker Omega or UVV…however this is often negated by slower moving lows and deformation zones along with more instability due to the  cold pool aloft and possilby better orographics. Stay tuned.

Longer Term:

Week two Ensemble and control of the global models are all either suggesting or hinting of an “AR” type event in CA around the 2nd week of January.  The Arctic infusion ahead of the WSW Flow makes sense so will take it more seriously.  This possible “AR” event in California’s future will be the talk of the town the next 6 to 10 days…..  I for one will not get all that excited until its on our door step…..  Remember, the split flow blues?? Yea it’s on my mind…. 

The Dweeber……………….:-)

Saturday Morning…

A short wave ridge of high pressure will bring warmer temperatures today with highs in the upper 30s. It will be mostly Sunny and dry. Temperatures will reach 40 degrees on Sunday.  Nights will actually be coldest below 8000ft after midnight as compared to the upper elevations above the inversion.

8000 ft low temperatures will be in the low 20s.   Low temperatures will range down into the single digits and teens over the lower elevation valleys between 7500ft and 6500 ft.

The next system for early/mid next week does not have any over-water trajectory for the upper low itself. So only light snowfall is expected early Tuesday morning into New years Day. This is an Arctic system with the coldest air so far this season….  Highs in Mammoth will be in the low teens on Wednesday, New Years Eve Low temps most likely below zero.

Note: At this time it is possible but unlikely that the Owens Valley will have any heavy snowfall as the upper low itself is forecasted to remain on shore. (No moisture tap) So light snowfall and accumulations are still in the cards…..possibly an inch or two. I’ll update on this Sunday….It will go either way by then….

The Next Storm Cycle looks to be in the 2nd week of January…

Have a Happy New Year!

The Dweeber………………………………………………………………..:-)