It been a very unusually wet Summer here in the eastern central sierra. Isopleths suggest that precipitation is running about 250% of normal for Mammoth June through July.  The current pattern continues to favor more mid latitude trofing over the far eastern pacific causing temps to remain a bit cooler then normal for this time of the year.  This Friday, high temps will be between at 10 to 15 degrees below normal.

Anomalous upper trofing will prevail off the west coast the next 5 days.  The short wave trof responsible for suppressing the high cloud spin off from TC “G” has passed to the NE, and so that high cloud band will likely lift back into Mono County later today and tonight.  More importantly…..the next short wave out some 1000 mi WSW of Mammoth will approach the Monterey Bay by 12Z Friday AM.  The Wednesday 12Z NAM this morning shows 250mb Upper Divergence increasing over the Eastern Sierra Later Thursday night and on into Friday. Surface CAPE will increase as well Friday. Plenty of 700RH along with surface Dew Points over the region well into the 40s suggest showers and thunderstorms. Precipitation amounts will not be major.

A 500MB Vt max is noted crossing the Sierra late Friday morning as well. Again….Showers and or thunderstorms may develop anytime between Thursday night and especially through Friday AM and PM. 15Z 500/1000 thickness of 570dm suggest that precipitation may be in the form of some light snowfall above 11,500 to 12,000 feet Friday… there may be another dusting or an inch like what we had on the 9th of July.  This is not a major storm…but it will feel fall-like Friday with lots of showers and possible thunder with up to 1/2 inch of QPF.

The weekend outlook is better. It will be clear Saturday and Sunday with high temps returning to the low to mid 70s.  However, Saturday pre dawn lows may be well down into the 30s is some areas.

Next Week:

A tug of war between the west coast long wave trof and a continental upper high will fight it out next week.  Most likely given the time of year, the upper high will win out with temps returning to at least normal or above by Mid Week next week.  However, it is less likely that the Summer Monsoon well return through at least the middle of next week because of SSW flow aloft.  I expect a very significant change in the pattern, between by week 2 into week 3.


Perseid Meteor Shower:

In the Northern Hemisphere, the annual August Perseid meteor shower probably ranks as the all-time favorite meteor shower of the year. This major shower takes place during the lazy, hazy days of summer, when many families are on vacation. And what could be more luxurious than taking a siesta in the heat of the day and watching this summertime classic in the relative coolness of night? No matter where you live worldwide, the 2015 Perseid meteor shower will probably be fine on the mornings of August 11, 12, 13 and 14, with the nod going to August 13. On a dark, moonless night, you can often see 50 or more meteors per hour from northerly latitudes, and from southerly latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere, perhaps about one-third that many meteors. Fortunately, in 2015, the waning crescent moon comes up shortly before sunrise, so you’re guaranteed of dark skies for this year’s Perseid meteor shower. Thus, on the Perseids’ peak mornings, moonlight will not obscure this year’s Perseid meteors.


El Nino:

Even though the CFS v2 has pulled back a bit from its highs a week or so ago…who cares?   Do really want an El Nino 3.4 event of +3C anyway?  Super Nino Criteria is anything above +2C in the Nino 3.4 region for a few months.   California does not need the kind of Carnage  that an event of +3c for a few month would bring…….  It has endured enough…..So get a grip!

The two Strongest  El Ninos on record were 1982/83 and 1997/98  Neither one reached over 3C in the Nino 3.4 region over a month’s average….  I think 2.7C/2.8C was the highest anomaly for a weeks period.

Contrary to some “Dweeb Wantabes”…. We are still on track up through end of July 2015 close to 1997 in some ways:

Check out Bob Tisdale’s SSTA evolution below by clicking on the link. You only need to look at the Nino 3.4 graph to see how this El Nino is progressing


NOAA ESRL MEI founder Klaus Wolter explains ,While the updated (June-July) MEI has dropped slightly (by 0.09 standard deviations in one month) to +1.97, it is now reaching the 2nd highest ranking, surpassed only by 1997 at this time of year. The MEI has hovered around +2 standard deviations for two months running, highest overall since early 1998.


Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………..:-)