Wednesday AM:

All forecast models are back peddling a bit on the QPF between Today and next Tuesday indicating about a 4 inch Bull’s-eye over Mammoth.  That means that we could see between 3 AND 4 FEET OF SNOW BY NEXT Tuesday.
The AR forecasted for early next week looks much weaker in the models today.

That appears to be the end of this storm cycle as the upper jet lifts back to the north. However,. Winter is not done yet and The Dweebs expect that the last week of the month of March to be quite active with more snowfall……



Skies dawned clear this morning after an unsettled day Monday. A nice short wave ridge builds in today with milder temps. The ridge is dirty and so high clouds will return by Noon. Gusty winds will increase this afternoon into tonight.  Highs today in town near 40. Low of 25.

Upper pattern will remain progressive through next Tuesday with a series of weather systems. The highlights are:

  1. Light over running precipitation late tonight through Wednesday AM. Light snowfall is expected over Mammoth Mt.  (1 to 3 inches)
  2. Winds will begin to ramp back up later this afternoon over the upper elevations into tonight.
  3. It will remain breezy to windy over the upper elevations beginning later today through Sunday.
  4. The next storm will move in Thursday Night and will end early Saturday. That system had been showing signs of splitting according to the GFS over CA. The ECMWF model has been more consolidated all along and now the GFS is showing more consolidation with the “Upper Trof” as well with this mornings run. This trend is more favorable for strong UVM over the Sierra Friday AM. Additionally, the new 12Z guidance is showing the front left quad of the upper jet favoring the Central Sierra at 12Z Friday AM.
  5. Although the Jury is still out on snowfall amounts by Early Saturday AM, it seems that a foot of snow or better over Mammoth Mt is reasonable, at this point in time.
  6. After the storm moves out early AM Saturday, it may actually be a decent day with wind over the upper elevations but little or no snowfall. The EC shows the potential for some nice wave clouds in the AM for Early AM photo shoots.
  7. By later Saturday afternoon the clouds increase with the wind, as the Last in the series of deep upper lows approaches the west coast. The system has an impressive upper jet that will move into Northern CA 1st, then slide south as the upper trof reloads and deepens. Several weather fronts will move through with this system Saturday night into Tuesday AM. The ECMWF has a nice atmospheric river associated with the strongest upper jet Sunday night through Monday AM.  The Dweebs are expecting 4 to 5 feet over the upper elevations during the period “Saturday night through Tuesday AM”
  8. There will be a long break in the storminess by Mid-Week next week as the upper pattern stagnates as a result of the EAJ receding. The GFS develops a full latitude ridge over the Eastern Pacific later next week with just a hint of a break through of the westerlies by weeks end.  The ECMWF is not as bullish with 500mb higher heights, as well as the upper jet remaining well north week 2.  Looking at the MJO and its composites, the MJO is pretty weak the next few weeks cruising through Phases 3 and 4 then strengthening in phase 5. However, the MJO is destructively interfering with the El Nino base state next week. That will assist in supporting the pattern change for the week two period….To go dry along much of the west coast. With the return of convection north of AU….the SOI has gone positive. This may also aid in a quicker weakening of ENSO base state in the coming 4 weeks as well..
  9. The Dweebs at this point are in agreement with the ECMWF and believe that the end of this particular Storm Cycle associated with moisture leaden storms from the pacific will be ending by the middle of next week.

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………..:-)