update this evening:  3/24/16


It was a nice little storm that rolled into Mammoth late Monday afternoon. Gusty winds and moderate snow showers were in full force by 6:30PM. The snow that was falling was definitely of the convective nature. The popcorn snow pellet type hydrometeor,  common in the springtime!  At Mammothweather.com near the Village at Mammoth, I picked up .36 hundreds and between 2 and 3 inches of Snow.  I estimated that Mammoth Mt got between 4 and 7 inches of snow over night.

The upper trof axis has shifted into Western Nevada this morning with a strong upper jet NNW/SSE translating east today through midnight tonight. Thus the upper elevation’s will be very breezy to windy today and tonight as well as down through the Owens Valley. By Wednesday, the main upper jet is well east of the area but there still remains a NW flow aloft for continued breeze over the Sierra Crest.

The weather will become more congenial by Thursday and warmer as well with short wave ridging building in. Temperature’s today will be in the upper 30s then 40s Wednesday, and even 50s Thursday through Sunday.  Lows at night will be in the low to mid 20s for the most part this week…especially by Thursday morning.

For you folks coming up for the Easter Holiday weekend, expect very nice weather Saturday, with breezes on the increase by Sunday afternoon.  As the headline indicates, a change in the pattern will take place beginning Sunday night as retrogression of the long wave ridge redevelops back some 1400 miles west to 140W..  This will allow a cold trof to dig SSE from the Pacific Northwest into Eastern CA.  At this time it is not certain of its exact trajectory but it will be all snow at resort levels. If it becomes a coaster slider, we could get significant snowfall early next week as it spins up into a closed upper low. If it digs, then spins up over California, then light to possibly moderate amounts of snow can be expected. And …if it digs south into Northern CA then shifts to the Great Basin north of Mono County, it will be mostly Wind, Cooling and snow showers…..

One thing is certain….After a nice Eastern California Easter Holiday weekend, it appears that it will get cold and unsettled for the first half of next week.

12:15 PM Tuesday Update:

Looking further at the 500MB mean height forecasts from both the ECMWF and GFSX:

  1. The upper height anomaly is a bit east of 140W and there is an area of weakness over the mid latitudes just east of the dateline. Both the EC and GFS are looking at a track down through Northern CA then possibly west to the South Central Coast by Tuesday. This may still be a good position for precip for the Central Sierra South to the Mts of LA  next week as the upper jet is over water and the NE Quad of the closed low is over the Central and Southern Sierra.   More later…………………..>>>


Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………….:-)