Sunday AM Update:

A weak upper low was located just NE of the Bay Area at Sunrise Sunday, proged to move ENE today. This is north of its earlier forecasted position. All of the Upper Divergence will be north of Mammoth Lakes today and so little in the way of dynamic forcing for thunderstorm’s is expected south of Mono Lake. The forecast is calling for isolated thunderstorms today for the southern Mono County Area and again Monday and Tuesday, Highs in the 70s today with lows in the upper 40s.  Saturday’s high was 80 at the Village at Mammoth and 82 in town.  It was 102 in Bishop Saturday breaking the old record by 2 degrees set back in 1996.


The first real taste of Summer will take place this week with highs in the mid 70s mid-week, climbing to the low 80s by Saturday. In the meantime the heat will build due to a strong ridge of high pressure and 500/1000MB thickness gradually climbing to about 580DM by 00z Sunday over Mammoth and Bishop.

The outlook shows a small upper level low that will work its way into the Central Sierra Sunday into early the following week.  The system will first create diffluence aloft with the possibility of a deformation zone setting up over Mono County. There is the possibility of upper divergence if the NE quad favors Mammoth Lakes Sunday. Although,  there will be little moisture associated with the upper low itself, the cooling aloft combined with the antecedent record warmth will be enough to light up the atmospheric with thunderstorms Sunday and especially Monday. Most models show that the late weekend system will be followed by yet a small progressive Trof the following Wednesday. The Prind. point is that the following week is likely to be cooler and breezy into the following weekend of the 11th. There maybe some days with below normal temps later the following week.

There is also MJO support for the cooler following week….More later……………..:-)


Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………….:-)