Thursday AM 9-1-16

The ECMWF from last nights 00z run was cooler again with the upcoming trof. it showed temps Sunday at 5:00PM at 10,000 foot level at 45F degrees, (7C);  by Monday AM cooling to 3C (37F) by Monday AM. These are free air temps. If they verify, we may be looking more in the high 50s to low 60s in Mammoth by Sunday and especially Monday. Will update tomorrow.  As a note the GFS in not a deep with this system.



Flat upper ridge will weaken over the next 5 day as the first fall like trough descends from west of BC, Canada. Although the Models agree on keeping the coldest air up into the Pacific NW now. They still bring a series of short waves that will kick up winds in the 40 to 60 MPH range over the sierra crest and 25 to 35 MPH in town. This will occur periodically beginning Wednesday through Saturday night. The strongest wave comes though Saturday afternoon into the evening followed by the coolest air Sunday AM. Temperatures will cool well down into the 60s for highs by Sunday. The coldest nights in the Valleys are expected Monday AM and Tuesday AM with 20s in several locations. So a nice sensible change in the weather, however, nothing quite as extreme as what was shown last week.

For the most part this is going to bring the first taste of Fall with between 10 and 15 degrees of cooling by Sunday from today’s high temperature of 80.  Night time lows will cool into the 20s in some areas. by weeks end.  The Euro and GFS model has 7C at 10,000 Sunday Morning at Day break.  That is 45 degrees F, free air temperature Sunday AM. 1000-500 MB thickness is about 564DM. Low temps should get down to the low 30s in town by sunrise. Those camping over the higher elevations should still have warmer clothing as qusty winds with temps in the 40s is still quite chilly.


Temperatures will warm up again during the next week…


Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………:-)