Storm 1. Just like I said….Models do not handle Subtropical moisture very well. Most of the models had the bulk of the precipitation further north of Mammoth but they have been back peddling south the past two days.  500MB 567DM upper low is west of Pt Conception with both subtropical and weak southern branch of the polar coupled well west of the coast.  Seymour has been down graded to TS and is still pumping a lot of heat into the system thus doing the job of Jet stream enhancement. PWAT plume of 1.7 to nearly 2.00 off the South Central CA coast with the trajectory into the Central Sierra. This is +5 to +6 Sigma as far as the anomaly.Thunderstorms a good possibility over the southern and central San Joaquin Valley and into the sierra tonight.

No doubt the QPF Bull’s-eye is over the central sierra on this 1st storm. Get ready for some heavy rain later tonight and possible thunder. Heavy rain will occur after midnight tonight as well into Friday morning.  Again this is not and I repeat not an AR event, no matter what the Colloquia’s want to say. This PW plume is wider than long. AR events are fairly narrow rivers of high PWAT that stretch thousands of miles usually West to East or SW to NE.  This one is an inverted V. PWAT is not the only definition for an AR.


Storm 2. Sundays storm will drop 12 to 18 inches over the crest and possibly 4 to 7 in the Towns of Mammoth and June.

Storm #3 is minor with lights amounts. “Monday Night” (A trace to an inch)


October 2016 is on the threshold of record rainfall here in the Central Sierra.


Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………:-)