Here is a brief update on the changes expected next week over the western hemisphere due to tropical forcing over the Western and Central Pacific.. The big news this morning is that the pattern changes touted by the MJO RIMM the end of October, are making their way into the week 2 global models (Next Week). Only now 6 days out, the models are showing the transition to an active pattern whereby cold, wind and snow returns to the high country, by early Wednesday.  From what I can see, the Dweeb Report was the only media calling for this change on November 1st report. So here we are 6 days out from a good possibility of cold, wind and snowfall. The storm being touted by all global models for next Wednesday is pretty average. Meaning that it is a classic short wave that will be progressive and move through Northern and Central CA Midweek. The part that make this short wave more promising is that it is being supported by the MJO “Madden Julian Oscillation”  In phase space 8/1. So I am going out and saying that I have high confidence in this weather system for very late Tuesday/Wednesday, and that it will bring light to moderate snowfall (Some where between 6 to 18 inches) to Mammoth Mt. At this time, there isn’t any subtropical tap so the upper Jet will do the forcing with terrain enhancement as well. Beyond Wednesday, the next possible system in the cards is for the following week.  I am not as confident in its timing, other than it will be sometime the following week. This 2nd system is more likely to split or get cut off from the westerlies. This opens the door to lots of possibilities for both timing and amounts of precipitation and its trajectory.  It may be that the storm cuts off and waits for the next upstream kicker to give it the boot.   I will update on the next system early next week via my letter.

For those that are interested, the Global Forecast System was touting 12 to 24 inches of snowfall for the Sierra by Thanksgiving yesterday Wednesday….”Caveat Emptor” “This is an outlook, subject to change.” 😉


Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………:-)