Archive for year 2016

Beautiful Break in the weather this upcoming week through Mid-Day Friday……Will Snowmageddon Hit the Central Sierra Friday Night Through>>>>????

Fair weather with warmer temps will be the trend through Mid week…….High temps Sunday and Monday will be in the 30s then 40s Tuesday through Friday….. Lows at night into the teens and 20s….

Sierra Crest winds were light this morning and pick up some this afternoon and night. However, for the lower slopes, lights winds will prevail through midweek….

 

This week will be a good time to create snow storage as you will need it by Week 2.

 

The Next Storm Cycle will begin late Friday afternoon into the following week…..

 

More details this upcoming week…!!

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………….:-)

Nor’easter taking the punch out of the west coast system by forcing some splitting of the upper flow over the sierra……A period of Moderate to Heavy Snowfall is expected later tonight into Saturday then Fair Sunday through Thursday……..

The last in the series of storms is expected to bring a period of moderate to heavy snowfall tonight.   Unfortunately,  the timing of our west coast storm could not be worse as it will be running into the back pressure of the east coast Nor’easter that is spinning up at the moment. This shorter wavelength will act to force “some” splitting of the new west coast storm, which will tend to;   1. Cause less spill over to the east of the sierra crest by causing more shadowing; 2. Weaken the vertical motion field by creating an area of downward motion, “DVM”.  Ultimately, it cuts the confidence level of the QPF, especially along the eastern slopes of the sierra.  So best guess this AM is between 12 and 18 inches over the upper elevations and up to a foot in town. It is possible that we will get more like the NOAA, WPC, QPF forecast is touting….

The NWS has winter weather advisories for travelers beginning at 4:00PM this Friday afternoon through 4:00PM Saturday……A period of heavy snow will develop later tonight into Saturday AM….

Highs today will be in the low 40s with low 30s on Saturday. Night time lows are expected in the 20s tonight and low teens Saturday night.  Sunday looks like a blue bird morning…..

It will be dry and partly cloudy Sunday through Thursday next week with another storm possible the following weekend…….That one may have a moderate “AR” attached to it, and it is a long way off for any details….

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………:-)

Last in the series of storms to make its way into Central CA….Friday AM with a 1-2 punch….Weather prediction center expecting between 2 and 3 inches of QPF for the Central Sierra……Nice break in the weather coming up Sunday or Monday through Thursday next week……

Thursday PM:

Latest Jan 00z 22 Update QPF from “WPC”, for the Sierra is about 2.25 inches around Mammoth with a 3.34 bulls Eye about 60 miles NW of the Mammoth Crest.

This updated QPF suggests that two combined systems will produce less than this mornings update. Latest models are showing some splitting of the upper flow that may limit to some extent snowfall totals.   Nevertheless, it still looks like well see around two feet, at elevations between 9K and 10K by early Sunday AM. CRFC QPF has about 2.00 for the Yosemite. This is also a little less than this AM. We often get 2 feet or a bit more with those amounts over the crest.

Lower elevations maybe more in the 12 to 18 inch range, at and above 7000 feet, west of highway 395. The Dweebs will take another look in the morning…..

 

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The last in the series of weather makers will begin to make its way into the high country later today with the effect of an increase in upper level winds over the crest.  This morning,  winds were very light over the lower slopes with ridge top peak gusts to only 25 MPH. Winds are expected to begin to ramp up this afternoon with the process continuing through Friday…..

 

Latest reports from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center is indicating a 3 to 4 day bull’s-eye just to the NW of MAMMOTH OF 3.27 INCHES.  Amounts to the NW of Tahoe are in excess of 4.00 inches on the west side. The upcoming storms will create a 1 -2 punch with a warm sector Friday AM associated with a small “AR”.

The latest WPC discussion indicated a moisture plume with Precipitable Water (PWAT) values of an inch streaming into Central CA  Friday AM that moves southward toward Southern CA by Saturday AM, then south to Northern MX by Saturday night. By the time it gets to Mexico, a strong onshore flow will begin into Central CA early Saturday AM. 

There will be two significant periods for precipitation over the Sierra:

  1. Onshore flow moves into Central California on Saturday through Saturday evening when the flow becomes parallel to the coast. Maximum QPF is expected to remain along the Sierra with Maximum amounts ranging from 1.50 to 2.75 inches on Friday into Saturday AM.
  2. A secondary impulse Saturday into early Sunday Morning shows the maximum QPF amounts again remaining along the sierra with amounts ranging from 1.00 to 1.25 inches.
  3. Thus the most favorable areas will have total QPF’s of between 2.50 inches and 4.00+ inches by Sunday AM.
  4. It is again the west side Northern Sierra that will have the most generous amounts.
  5. Mammoth Mt stands to receive between 2 and 3 feet of snowfall totals over the weekend.
  6. Lower elevation areas like the Town of Mammoth is expected to receive some ware between 1 and 2 feet

 

Longer Range:

Lots of cloudiness at times but dry Monday though at least Wednesday with a warming trend…. High temps may get near 50 by Wednesday in town with lows in the 20s

Another small “AR” is possible by the following Friday……

 

More Later……………..

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………:-)