Archive for year 2016

The march of weather systems to continue into Saturday AM with a break Saturday PM thru Mid Week……

My Son Clifford reported heavy rain in Mt View in the Bay Area, between 8:00am and 9:00Am this morning, including a nasty traffic accident involving a Greyhound Bus.  The back of this particular storm is currently moving on shore over the Bay Area and should be through Mammoth by this evening…  California Rivers QPF has Yosemite in for about an inch and so amounts of about a foot are expected over the upper elevations, while 4 to 8 inches in the Town of Mammoth Lakes by tonight.  Snow showers will end over night and Wednesday is expected to be dry into Thursday.  The last in the series of storms will be worth watching a bit more in detail and it has a deeper surface low and thus has the ability to generate additional QPF.

For the folks coming up for the Weekend, at this time the majority of the Friday/Night storm should be over by Noon Saturday with just some lingering showers possible in the afternoon.  There will be a nice long break between Sunday and the middle of next week….    High this weekend will be in the 40s with lows in the 20….  It looks quite breezy over the Crest Saturday, but the winds will gradually diminish into Sunday

 

This next series of storms are expected to begin about the end of the month of January…There are some big ones with a lot of energy touted by the longer range models in Week two for the Central Sierra. However, at least some of the runs are tracks that are closer to the west coast with a lot of meridial flow.

 

El Nino:

El Nino as peaked and will slowly weaken this Winter with more rapid weakening this Spring…

 

So Far, the response has been quite disappointing to the Southern Sierra and the Southern CA region. The Dweebs have had some head fakes both in December and January in the longer range models which have panned out little.  Even more interesting is the current distribution of the Precipitation along the west coast which by now should become more focused along the southern half of the west coast instead of hammering the Pacific Northwest and Northern CA.  If this were to continue through February and March, This would be the first time that I can see through the data that such a strong ENSO event favored The Pacific NW and Northern CA.   With that said, we have a lot of time left in this winter which astronomically goes thorough the 21st of March.  The Dweebs will add that they have experienced a whole winter’s worth of precipitation here in Mammoth Lakes in just 2 (10 day) periods…

In the long-range; The climate models are showing a major change in the pattern the end of this month into at least the first week of February. I am looking at the week two ensembles and the CFS week 3.  It looks wetter for Southern CA.

 

In the meantime, Skiing has been just fabulous on Mammoth Mt. Some of the best snow in 5 years!.. If you have not come up yet to make some turns…do so soon…Life is short! 😉

 

More Later……..

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………….:-)

Weather Pattern has once again turned active in the high country with periods of light to moderate snow this weekend…….Then a Potential AR Event Late Sunday Night though Tuesday….

Sunday 7:45 AM

Although the focus of the “AR” will be over Northern CA this Coming Week…Mammoth Mt could still pick up 18 to 24 inches of wet snow between Tonight and Tuesday evening…..  These are two storms back to back that are each moderate precipitation producing storms. There will be a break Wednesday and Thursday before another moderate storm hits Friday…..The Dweebs definition of a moderate storm is one that produces between 6  to 18 inches of snow over a 24 hour period.

 

9:00AM Saturday:

Snowfall amounts were in the 3 to 4 inch range over the upper elevations with a trace to an inch or so in town.

 

The focus now shifts to Sunday night through Tuesday time frame as deeper moisture moves into the pacific NW south to Central CA.

This morning, CRFC did pull back on the QPF between Sunday night through Tuesday to less than an inch for Yosemite.  Obviously the models have become drier for Central CA. However, this is a day to day situation and the Dweebs will update Sunday when were are within 24 hours of the beginning of the AR that will hit parts of the west coast.

 

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5:20PM Friday..

 

Late tonight and Saturday AM 2 to 3 in town and 3 to 6 over Old Woolly…

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The Models are really starting to pick up on quite the wet pattern next week and possibly beyond. Even Southern CA may turn much wetter later in the week and beyond….

The Dweebs are hoping that this is what we all have been waiting for..

Details Sunday…….

 

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After what was deemed our January thaw, another active weather pattern has developed. Although the storms Thursday through Sunday are in the light to moderate range, there will be some breaks with partly cloudy skies later Saturday into Sunday morning….the only other issue is that it will be very windy at times over the upper elevations.   Looking at the outlook….Buckle Up!  There is a chance for a real AR event beginning late Sunday night with the juice really increasing Monday into Tuesday.  “A colloquial Pineapple Express maybe be touted” The Experimental model HIWPP FIM9 14-km showed a nice AR connection to near Hawaii with PWAT of up to 1.5 inches Monday and Tuesday.

If this sets up and I mean if….It will be wet base building snow with high moisture content with the snow level in the 7,000 to 8,500 range early next week. The Snow level will come down later Tuesday. Better confidence will occur by this Saturday PM for the Monday/Tuesday event so stay tuned.  Sorry Southern Calif….  Although you will get some rain, You will have to wait until the following Friday to get your Pineapple’s…Maybe

 

The precipitation forecast shows moderate amounts of snow Thursday night into Friday AM possibly 6 to 10 inches. Another fast-moving system is expected Friday night into Saturday AM with lighter amounts…1 to 3 inches in town and 3 to 6 over the upper elevations, by Saturday Noon.

The next system will begin to spread snowfall into the Mammoth Area by Sunday evening and continue through Tuesday….

 

Forecast as of Thursday night for the weekend….at the 8200 foot level

 

Friday: A chance of snow before 7am, then scattered snow showers between 7am and 10am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 36. Breezy, with a west wind 15 to 20 mph becoming northwest 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Friday Night: Snow likely, mainly after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday: Snow. High near 39. West wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Saturday Night: A 40 percent chance of snow showers before 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Sunday: A 20 percent chance of snow after 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39.

Sunday Night: A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27.

M.L.King Day: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38.

Monday Night: Snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29.

Tuesday: Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36.

Ridge in the west….Cold Trof in the East to give two more nice days before weather turns unsettled again by Wednesday…..Then thereafter for another week….

If you saw the Minnesota game Sunday then you know that there was a Cold Air invasion from Canada over the weekend. The Cold has advanced SE and is part of a slowly progressive long wave trof over the Eastern US. Chances are good that if this was not a strong El Nino Winter,  that this cold trof would have gained a foot hold over the Eastern CONUS and it would have been Ridge City over the west for 3 weeks or so…..  However, the southern stream is already coming to the rescue as it is working hard to carry the meridial flow and its cold air out off the east coast by Tuesday night.    Thus the current shortened wave length will become elongated and negative tilt, as the cold air get flushed out over the Atlantic.  At the same time, the storm door will open over the far west as a series of light to moderate precipitation producers move through the west coast.  Moderate precipitation snowfall wise is between 6 and 18 inches here in Mammoth, over a 24 hour period….  As with any pattern change, the timing of the short wave will be an issue this far out. At least until both the ECMWF and the GFS come into better agreement…  At the Moment, they both agree on the timing of the Wednesday through Thursday short waves and precipitation amounts.   It is the Friday through the weekend holiday that some fine-tuning will be needed…..

 

Although there will be a pattern change, more important changes are coming into the picture in the form of teleconnections.  Its the AO….It is flipping back to positive according to the European model by the 20th…and eventually strongly positive may I add. So this means that the flow will become more progressive as lower pressure develops over the Arctic. This sends the east back into a pattern of above normal temps over time and the storm track a bit further north again. Northern CA and the pacific NW are more apt to get more rain again during week 2. Pretty unusual for a Strong El Nino!  I noticed that a strong Potential “AR’ event may develop after the MLK holiday next week for Northern Ca and Oregon.  This should at the least get us out of the colder than normal temps in Mammoth with higher heights and so we can get rid of some of the ice dams on the roofs…  However with that all said, we need more snow as the sierra snow pack is again below normal. Today we are more than 70% below at this time…